Exposure of kharif crops production to climate change

Abstract

Present study is an attempt to estimate and forecast the impact of moderate climate change projection on two major food crop- Maize and Rice productivity under the question of providing food security along with sustainability. The study attempted to analysis the impact of moderate rise in Kharif season climatic variables, mean maximum temperature and mean rainfall is 1.63 °C and 5 percent by 2100 AD which is more than annual climatic variables (2.02 °C and 7 percent) respectively on maize crop yield and rice crop yield across north India, northeast India and peninsular India along with impact on national crop yield using crop model. Decadal growth rate of mean maximum temperature and rainfall for Kharif season 0.2 °C & 0.63 percent respectively. The crop yields are regressed on climatic variables using panel data over 118 districts across three regions of India (North India, North-East India and Peninsular India for sixteen years (1998-2014) to estimate the impact. About 5 percent increase in kharif season mean maximum temperature is found across the period of sixteen period whereas 5 percent cumulative increase in kharif season mean rainfall for all India. This change is unevenly distributed across three regions. Projection in Kharif season maize and rice crop yield under five climatic scenarios (2020, 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100) is estimated by applying logarithmic panel data regression crop model. The results of study found a decrease in maize crop yield across north India by 0.93percent whereas increases across north east India, peninsular India and all India by 1.3 percent, 0.16 percent and 0.53 percent respectively till the end of 21st century whereas in absolute terms highest loss of 0.172 quintals per hectare in maize crop yield is estimated across north region. Projections for Rice crop yield indicates a loss of 0.83 percent across peninsular India whereas an increase across north India, north east India and all India by 7.19 percent, 7.7 percent and 0.13 percent respectively. The study included other geophysical variables-type of soil, fertility of soil, longitude and latitude position and socio-economic variables- population density, size of holdings, use of fertilizer, farm harvest price and irrigation facilities. However, for kharif season crop availability of irrigation facilities affect much.