Predictive model and productions function for area, production and productivity of rapeseed and mustard crop in Bastar plateau agro climatic zone of Chhattisgarh

Abstract

Chhattisgarh State has three agro climatic zones, Chhattisgarh Plains, Bastar plateau and Northern Hills Region. In the present study, an attempt has made to study the predictive models and production function for area, production and productivity of Rapeseed and Mustard crop in Bastar plateau agro-climatic zone of Chhattisgarh. Time series data for the period from 1983-84 to 2010-11 on Rapeseed and Mustard were utilized for the study. The predictive model under study included a unique feature of structural periodic effect as a factor to capture the cyclic pattern, if any, along with trend effect in the time-series data. This periodic effect was estimated for area, production and productivity of the Rapeseed and Mustard. Apart from this model as a first case, wherein 4-year periodic cyclic effect is assumed along with annual effect working within it as a nested effect; another model has also been assumed with an overall periodic effect variable in combination with overall trend effect variable without any nesting, for comparison with the first case. Additionally, influences of area and productivity of the crops were also worked out to understand the impact of influencing factor (either area or productivity) on the production of Rapeseed and Mustard.