Country wise growth in export of coffee from India

Introduction

Along with its strong worldwide demand as an everyday beverage, coffee serves as an economic cornerstone in India's agricultural sector. Cultivated under dense canopy shade across Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu along with expanding tracts in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Indian coffee accounts for nearly three percent of global production. The industry grows two main commercial types: Arabica, which secures premium prices abroad and Robusta, which meets large-scale blending needs. Because internal consumption absorbs only a fraction of annual output, growers depend heavily on external markets. India exports between 70 per cent and 80 per cent of its total harvest, making outbound trade critical for maintaining farm incomes and securing foreign exchange. Between 2005-06 and 2024-25, national coffee shipments rose from 2,01,555 MT to 3,84,589 MT, expanding at a yearly rate of 3.55 per cent. Total export revenues experienced even faster growth, surging from ₹1,51,037 lakh to ₹12,95,868 lakh at an annual rate of 9.86 per cent. Examining destination-level data reveals clear shifts in trade patterns. Traditional European buyers reached saturation; shipment volumes to Italy increased at a non-significant 0.80% (and fell by -3.39% per annum in the second decade), while volumes to Russia grew by just 0.34 per cent. In contrast, emerging destinations drove volume growth. Turkey (20.07%), Poland (17.56%) and Libya (12.63%) posted double-digit yearly volume gains. Reliable volume expansion also occurred in Jordan (7.61%), the USA (6.98%), Germany (4.59%) and Belgium (4.56%). Dividing the twenty-year timeline into two equal decades shows how export drivers evolved. In Period I (2005-06 to 2014-15), volume expansion led trade performance, growing at 4.77 per cent each year. In Period II (2015-16 to 2024-25), shipment growth slowed to a non-significant 1.83 per cent. Despite slower volume gains, earnings remained strong in the second decade due to surging world commodity prices. Perkilogram export prices appreciated by 356.51 per cent over the full study period, rising from ₹74.94 to ₹342.09 per kg at an annual growth rate of 6.12 per cent. Unit price growth remained positive across all destinations, led by Jordan (6.92%), Libya (6.64%), Belgium (6.48%) and the USA (6.31%). These figures show that India's long-term export success was built on favourable global prices and market diversification.

Materials and Methods

This study investigates the growth trajectory of Indian coffee exports over a twenty-year period. Coffee was chosen because of its commercial importance as a major foreign exchange earner and its vital role in supporting rural livelihoods across southern farming tracts. Evaluating export patterns helps determine how world demand, price swings and trade policies shape outward shipments. The empirical analysis relies on secondary time-series data covering 2005-06 to 2024-25, gathered from official records of the Coffee Board of India and Indiastat. To trace structural changes over time, the twenty-year series was broken into three distinct time periods -

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

Long-term growth rates in coffee export were calculated using an exlakh. This rise was supported by higher export prices, which advanced steadily from ₹74.94 to ₹342.09 per kg. All three parameters achieved statistically significant growth rates at the 1 per cent level, with quantity expanding at 3.55 per cent, value at 9.86 per cent and unit prices at 6.12 per cent per year.

Results and discussion

Export performance of coffee from India

Table 2 shows that the maximum growth in the export quantity, export value and export prices of coffee was observed in the Period I as shown by the growth rates of 4.77 per cent, 15.09 per cent and 9.85 per cent respectively. The maximum growth rate was observed in Period I. Economically, this represents market-entry strategies, volume-driven expansion or worldwide market capture.

In Period II, the growth rate was stabilized or stagnated. The growth rate for coffee export quantity in Period II was 1.83 per cent and statistically non-significant. Growth rate for coffee export value and price in Period II was 9.89 per cent and 8.0 per cent respectively at 1 per cent level of significance. The growth rate of coffee export quantity, value and price in overall period was 3.55 per cent, 9.86 per cent, 6.12 per cent respectively at 1 per cent level of significance. Table 3 shows marked variation among partner nations between both decades. In Period I, Turkey led all destinations with an annual volume growth of 46.60 per cent and earnings growth of 57.70 per cent.

Country-wise growth rates in export of coffee from India

Conversely, Russia experienced negative volume growth (-2.72%) and a modest value rise of 6.45 per cent. Belgium yielded the highest price growth during this opening decade at 11.85 per cent. Across the full twenty years, national coffee exports achieved positive and statistically significant growth across all three indicators. Annual shipments rose by 3.55 per cent, overall earnings expanded by 9.86 per cent and unit values advanced by 6.12 per cent. Destination-level analysis reveals that the fastest volume expansion was driven by Turkey (20.07%), Poland (17.56%) and Libya (12.63%), followed by Jordan (7.61%), the USA (6.98%), Germany (4.59%) and Belgium (4.56%). In contrast, volume growth to Italy (0.80%) and Russia (0.34%) remained low and statistically non-significant. Per-kilogram price realizations rose across all partners, led by Jordan (6.92%), Libya (6.64%), Belgium (6.48%), the USA (6.31%), Poland (6.30%), the pooled Other Countries group (6.24%) and Italy (6.05%).

Conclusions

Indian coffee exports showed steady, statistically significant longterm growth across the twenty-year observation period. Annual shipments expanded by 3.55 per cent, export earnings grew by 9.86 per cent and unit price realizations rose by 6.12 per cent. The fastest gains occurred during Period I, when volume expanded at 4.77 per cent, revenue at 15.09 per cent and unit prices at 9.85 per cent. This demonstrates that early volume expansion provided the groundwork for subsequent price-driven earnings growth. While physical shipments leveled off across traditional European markets like Italy and Russia, rapid expansion across emerging destinations including Turkey, Poland and Libya helped sustain overall trade growth.

References

1. Abhinav MC, Kuruvila A. Indian Coffee: A Quadragenary Growth Analysis. Economic Affairs. 2021;66(3):515-519.
2. Balakrishnan M, Chandran K. Growth and performance of coffee in India-An economic analysis. International Journal of Pure and Applied Bioscience. 2018;6(2):713-717.
3. Das A, Raju R, Kiran Kumara TM, Siddayya. Performance and Determinants of Exports of Coffee from India: A Post-WTO Scenario. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2020;75(4).
4. Kamalvanshi V, Kumareswaran T, Singh HP, Sharma A, Kumar D. Production and export performance of coffee in India. Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry. 2019;8(2):1619-1623.
5. Kumara M, Nagendrababu K. Coffee exports in Karnataka: An analysis of trends, performance and export prospects. Journal of Advance and Future Research. 2026;4(6):130-140.
6. Nagaveni M, Devegowda SR, Yadav A, Kumar PP, Kushwaha S. Trends and Trade Directions in the Production and Export of Coffee. Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing. 2024;38(1).
7. Patil SB, Naik VR, Hiremath GM. Growth trends and export performance of Indian cashew industry in the globalized era. Journal of Plantation Crops. 2023;51(1):45-53.
8. Yamakanith P, Gurusamy P. Export performance of coffee in India-An Analytical study. International journal of Multi diciplinary Research and development. 2015;2(2):188-122.