Instability analysis of raisin exports from India

Introduction

Raisins, derived from sound, dried grapes of Vitis vinifera L., constitute a commercially vital value-added commodity in the international dried-fruit market. They serve both as direct nutritional snacks and as essential ingredients across the bakery, confectionery, dairy and beverage industries. confectionery, dairy and beverage industries. India is the world's second-largest producer of dried grapes, generating approximately 270,000 metric tons annually, about 16 per cent of global output (INC Statistical Yearbook, 2024). Domestic production is heavily concentrated in Maharashtra contributing over 75 per cent of the national total, followed by Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. In India, raisins are primarily produced from Thompson Seedless grapes and their clones, which are processed into diverse commercial raisin types such as golden, brown, black, green, red raisins and black Monukka, achieving a 25 per cent recovery rate with 16 per cent moisture and 22 to 23 degrees Brix (TSS). The raisin sector plays a crucial role in mitigating post-harvest losses within India's table grape industry, currently processing 20 per cent of the domestic harvest while offering a substantial scope for value addition. Compared to fresh table grape exports, raisin production requires lower capital investment and reduced labour requirement, enabling producers as well as exporters to secure superior economic returns (Sharma et al., 2007) [1] . India possesses strong competitive advantages in raisin production and trade, supported by favourable agroclimatic conditions, established viticulture regions, modern cold-chain infrastructure and strategic institutional backing from APEDA. Rising consumer demand for healthy, value-added products offers significant potential for market expansion, import substitution and efficient grape utilization. Additionally, the International Trade Centre ranks dried grapes sixth among India's top export potential products within the fruit sector. Sustained adherence to international quality standards for raisins and reliable supply chains continue to strengthen India's global market presence. Despite substantial production, India contributes only about 6 per cent of the total global exports of dried grapes as high domestic consumption absorbs the majority of the supply. India stands among major raisin exporters, ranking 8th in export quantity and 9th in export value. In 2024, the total raisin exports reached 46,738.93 metric tons valued at ₹607.83 crores, with Maharashtra supplying 80 to 95 per cent of this total. Major destination markets include Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Romania, the UAE, and Russia. In 2024-25, Morocco accounted for the largest share in both export quantity and value of Indian raisins, while the United Arab Emirates offered the highest prices for Indian raisins.

Research methodology

This study evaluates India as a single geographical unit to assess the dynamics of raisin export trade over time. It is based on secondary time-series data from 2005-06 to 2024-25, obtained from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) for raisins classified under HS Code 08062010. To facilitate a comparative assessment, the study timeline is divided into Period I (2005-06 to 2014-15), Period II (2015-16 to 2024-25), and the Overall Period (2005-06 to 2024-25). The collected data was analysed using appropriate statistical methods to derive the meaningful findings. The analysis focused on nine major and consistent importing countries of Indian raisins reflecting current market dynamics, with remaining destinations grouped under an 'Others' category.

Tools of analysis

The Coefficient of Variation and Cuddy Della Valle Index were employed following tabular analysis to examine the instability in the export of Indian raisins.

Coefficient of Variation (CV) is defined as the ratio of sample Standard Deviation (SD) to its mean. In order to study the variability in the time series data, coefficient of variation (CV) was used as an index of instability.

b) Cuddy Della and Valle instability index

As proposed by Cuddy and Della called the coefficient of variation ( CV) is modified as de-trend CV by using coefficient of determination (𝑅 2 ). Thus, it is a better measure to capture instability in agricultural production and export as it indicates the real direction of the instability. The formula is given as

where, C.V. = Coefficient of variation in per cent (%) R 2 = Coefficient of determination from time trend regression adjusted by number of degrees of freedom If the index values are below 15 per cent, then it is categorized as low instability, if they fall between 15 to 30 per cent, then it is categorized as medium instability and values more than 30 per cent are categorized as high instability.

Results and discussion

Instability in raisin exports from India

An evaluation of export of Indian raisins over a 20-year period as given in the table 1 demonstrated that although export levels fluctuated from year to year, the long-term trends in export quantity, value and prices have consistently remained positive and upward during the twenty year period. The physical trade volumes exhibited high instability, recording a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 70.65 per cent and a Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI) of 45.88 per cent. [2] and Gurindapalli et al. (2025) [3] . Overall higher instability was noticed in the export value of Indian raisins whereas low instability was noticed in the export prices as de-picted in the figure 1 illustrating fluctuations in Indian raisin exports during two decades. High volume instability reflects weather vulnerabilities, need to be compliant with stringent foreign phyto-sanitary protocols and changing preferences in international markets.

Sub period-wise growth rate and instability in raisin exports from India

Comparative assessment of period wise trade presented in the table 2 shows overall positive yet volatile trajectory for raisin exports from India indicating that the raisin export has expanded rapidly but has also experienced substantial fluctuations. The Period I (2005-06 to 2014-15) demonstrating initial growth phase exhibited high instability, with CDVI values reaching 50.16 per cent for export volume, 51.54 per cent for revenue and 12.11 per cent for unit prices.

Minimum instability in the export prices was observed in the period I in comparison with the period II. Period II (2014-15 to 2024-25) was characterized by a significant improvement in the trade stability, with CDVI values for export volume and total value dropping to their lowest levels at 21.34 per cent and 26.69 per cent, respectively, while unit price instability remained low at 12.26 per cent. The minimum instability in the export quantity and export value was observed in the period II relatively to period I. The observed reduction in instability highlights enhanced supply chain resilience, adoption of standardized raisin processing protocols and improving international quality compliance.

Country-wise instability in the export of raisins from India

An evaluation of trade stability using the Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI) over the 20-year period from 2005-06 to 2024-25 reveals significant volume and value fluctuations across major export destinations for Indian raisins as shown in table 3

Sub-period wise instability in the raisin exports to destination markets

A comparative analysis of sub-period export stability of Indian raisins across major trade partners was executed using the Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI) for Period I (2005-06 to 2014-15) and Period II (2015-16 to 2024-25). Evaluation of sub-period instability of Indian raisin exports reveals structural shift towards market consolidation and risk reduction between Period I to Period II. During Period I, maximum instability in export quantity was recorded in Romania with a CDVI of 142.77 per cent, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, whereas Vietnam registered the lowest quantity instability at 31.06 per cent, followed by Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In terms of export value, Romania again exhibited peak volatility at 139.24 per cent CDVI, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, while Vietnam maintained the lowest value instability at 24.73 per cent, followed by Sri Lanka and Malaysia. Assessing unit export prices, the highest instability was observed in Sri Lanka at 49.62 per cent CDVI, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Romania, whereas Russia recorded the lowest price instability at 5.32 per cent CDVI, followed by Vietnam and Ukraine. Over the course of Period II, maximum instability in export quantity shifted to Morocco with a CDVI of 81.74 per cent, followed by Russia and Ukraine, while Sri Lanka achieved the highest volume stability with a CDVI of 20.09 per cent, followed by Malaysia and Vietnam. Regarding export value, Morocco similarly registered peak volatility at 88.07 per cent CDVI, followed by Russia and Ukraine, whereas Sri Lanka registered the lowest value instability at 23.75 per cent CDVI, followed by Malaysia and Vietnam. For unit export prices, Ukraine recorded the maximum instability at 20.98 per cent CDVI, followed by Morocco and Saudi Arabia, while the United Arab Emirates registered the lowest price volatility at 10.85 per cent CDVI, followed by Malaysia and Vietnam.

Suggestion

The present investigation suggested that, the existing export volumes from highly unstable destinations like Romania and Russia could be strategically redirected towards the stable and consistent markets such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, high volatility in the export markets like Morocco and Sri Lanka suggests for structured supply chain management, and export contract models to stabilize trade volumes and reduce frequent buyer shifts.

References

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7. How to cite this article: SB J, Kumbhar J, Deokate T, Sale Y, Munde P, Shinde A. Instability analysis of raisin exports from India. International Journal of Agriculture and Food Science. 2026;8(10):53-57. doi: https://www.doi.org/10.33545/2664844X. 2026.v8.i10a.2002