Analysis of growth and instability in area, production, productivity and export performance of rice in India

Introduction

In Rice (Oryza sativa) is one of the most important food crops in the world and plays a vital role in food security and agricultural development. It is a major staple food for more than half of the world's population and contributes significantly to calorie and food requirements, particularly in Asia. India is one of the leading rice-producing countries, and rice occupies an important place in the country's agricultural economy, food security, and international trade. During 2024-25, rice production in India showed considerable improvement over the previous year. The area under rice increased from 47.82 million hectares in 2023-24 to 51.27 million hectares in 2024-25, an increase of about 7.19 per cent. Rice production increased from 137.82 million tonnes to 150.18 million tonnes, registering a growth of about 8.97 per cent. Productivity also increased from 2,882 kg per hectare to 2,899 kg per hectare, showing an improvement of about 0.59 per cent. In Maharashtra, rice was cultivated over about 1,586.6 thousand hectares in 2024-25, with production of about 3,866.6 thousand tonnes and productivity of about 2,437.4 kg per hectare.

Objective

To estimate state wise growth rates and instability of area, production, productivity, and export of rice.

Methodology

The study was based on secondary data collected from official sources, including FAO, APEDA and Indiaagristat. Data on rice production and exports were collected for a period of 20 years, from 2005-06 to 2024-25. The study period was divided into Period I (2005-06 to 2014-15), Period II (2015-16 to 2024-25), and the Overall Period (2005-06 to 2024-25). Major rice-producing states were selected based on their importance in rice production during 2024-25. As Telangana was separated from Andhra Pradesh in June 2014, the data for Telangana and Andhra Pradesh were combined for the period before 2014, wherever necessary, to ensure continuity and comparability in the time-series analysis.

Compound growth rate and instability

Compound growth rate

For estimating growth rates in area, production, productivity and export of rice, compound growth rates were estimated. Compound growth rates were estimated separately for Period I, Period II, and the overall period. The compound growth rates of area, production, productivity and rice exports were estimated using the following exponential growth function.

𝑌 = 𝑎.𝑏𝑡

Where, Y = Area/production/ productivity/export a = Constant term (Intercept) b = Regression coefficient t = Time Taking logarithms on both sides:

The annual compound growth rate of area, production, productivity, and export of rice was estimated using the following formula:

Where, r = Compound Growth Rate The significance of the regression coefficient was tested using student's t-test.

Instability analysis

To measure the instability of state wise export performance of rice from India: growth and determinants, an index of instability was used as a measure of variability through Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Cuddy Della Valle's instability (CDVI) indices.

Coefficient of variation

In order to study the variability in the export of rice, coefficient of variation was used as a measure of variability. The coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated using the following formula:

Cuddy-Della Valle's instability index (CDVI)

It was used to measure instability of state wise export performance of rice in India which is close to approximation of the average year to year percent variation adjusted for trend. The algebraic form of it was, Instability index= CV √ 𝟏 -𝑹 𝟐 Where, CV = Coefficient of variation in per cent R 2 = Coefficient of determination

Results and Discussion

The growth rate, coefficient of variation, and instability of rice area, production, productivity, and exports were analysed on a state-wise basis. Rice exports from India showed positive and significant growth in quantity, value, and value per unit during all three periods. Export quantity increased the most during Period I 12.83 per cent, while export value and unit value also recorded strong growth. However, variation and instability were higher in Period I and the overall period, indicating more fluctuations in exports. Period II showed lower variation and instability, suggesting that rice exports became relatively more stable during this period. Overall, India's rice export performance showed steady growth with improved stability in Period II.

Conclusions

The analysis of rice area, production, productivity and exports during 2005-06 to 2024-25 revealed substantial differences in growth, variability and instability across states and periods. Telangana + Andhra Pradesh recorded the highest overall growth in rice area 1.22 per cent, production 4.36 per cent and showed the highest variability in both area and production, while Chhattisgarh recorded the highest growth in productivity 3.54 per cent. During Period II, Telangana + Andhra Pradesh registered particularly high growth in production 9.90 per cent and productivity 5.68 per cent, indicating substantial improvement in rice performance during the later period. In contrast, West Bengal recorded a decline in rice area, while Punjab showed comparatively lower variability and instability in production. At the national level, rice area, production and productivity recorded growth rates of 0.55, 2.37 and 0.05 per cent, respectively, indicating that the increase in national rice production was associated mainly with changes in cultivated area and improvements in productivity in specific states rather than a substantial rise in average national productivity. India's rice export performance showed considerably higher growth than domestic rice area, production and productivity. Overall export quantity, export value and value per unit quantity increased by 10.06, 10.78 and 7.37 per cent, respectively. Export growth was particularly high during Period I, but export quantity and value also exhibited greater variability and instability during this period. In Period II, export quantity and value continued to grow at 8.46 and 10.52 per cent, respectively, while their instability declined substantially, indicating greater stability in rice exports during the later period. Overall, the findings indicated that India's rice export sector expanded at a much faster rate than domestic rice production indicators, with Telangana + Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh emerging as important contributors to improvements in production and productivity. The higher and more stable export performance during the later period highlighted the strengthening of India's position in the international rice market.

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