Export performance of raisins from India

Introduction

Raisins, the naturally dried fruits of grape (Vitis vinifera L.), serve as one of the most economically significant value-added products in the global dried-fruit trade. Consumed globally as a nutritious snack, they are widely utilized across the food industry in bakery items, confectionery, dairy products and beverages. Globally, India is the second-largest global producer of dried grapes, generating approximately 270,000 metric tons annually, which accounts for 16 per cent of total global output (INC Statistical Yearbook, 2024). Within India, domestic production is heavily localized i.e. Maharashtra dominates the sector by contributing over 75 per cent of the national total, followed by Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. In India, raisins are predominantly produced from Thompson Seedless grapes and their respective clones, which are converted into various commercial varieties including golden, brown, black, green, red, and black Monukka raisins, yielding a 25 per cent recovery rate with a moisture content of 16 per cent and a TSS level of 22 to 23 degrees Brix. The raisin industry directly complements India's table grape sector by minimizing post-harvest losses, currently processing only 20 per cent of the total domestic grape harvest and leaving significant room for value addition. Compared to fresh table grape exports, raisin production requires substantially lower capital investment and is less labour intensive, allowing producers and exporters to secure better price realizations and superior cost-benefit ratios (Sharma et al., 2007) [1] . India's raisin industry holds considerable potential for growth in both domestic and international markets, offering opportunities for import substitution and more efficient utilization of grape production. The International Trade Centre identified dried grapes as India's top export potential products in the fruit category, securing the sixth rank. Furthermore, a steady supply of raisins, competitive pricing, compliance with international quality standards and a rising global demand for healthy and value-added products have resulted in a strong global presence for Indian raisins. Despite significant domestic production, India accounted for approximately 6 per cent of the global raisin exports as the large share of the raisin supply is absorbed by high domestic consumption (INC Statistical Yearbook, 2024). Globally India is one of the leading exporters of raisins, ranking 8 th in total export quantity and 9 th in export value. In 2024, India exported 46,738.93 tons of raisins valued at ₹607.83 crores with Maharashtra supplying 80-95 per cent of these exports. Major export destinations of Indian raisins include Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Romania, the UAE and Russia. Morocco emerged as the leading importer of Indian raisins in 2024-25 accounting for the highest share in both quantity and value whereas United Arab Emirates ranks first in terms of export prices realised by Indian raisins.

Research Methodology

The present study encompassed India as a single geographical unit to systematically evaluate the country's raisin export performance and trade growth over time. Raisin as a commodity was purposefully chosen for this study due to its high export potential. This study was primarily based on secondary time-series data from 2005-06 to 2024-25, obtained from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) for raisins classified under HS Code 08062010. To enable a comprehensive comparative assessment, the study timeline is categorized into Period I (2005-06 to 2014-15) , Period II (2015-16 to 2024-25) and Overall Period: 2005-06 to 2024-25. The analysis was conducted for nine major and consistent countries importing Indian raisins, which reflect current market dynamics, while the remaining destination markets were grouped under the 'Others' category.

Tools of analysis

Growth rate analysis was employed following tabular analysis to evaluate the export performance of raisins from India.

Compound annual growth rate

It measures the annual growth rate over a specified period, assuming steady, compounded growth each year. In this study, CAGR was calculated to assess the growth trends in raisin exports from India and to evaluate destination specific trade performance over twenty years of timespan. The estimates (b values) for each variable, computed using regression analysis were used to calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in percentage using the following formula:

𝑌 𝑡 = 𝑎𝑏 𝑡

CAGR (r) = [Antilog (b)-1] × 100

where, r = Compound Annual Growth Rate in percent

Results and discussion

Export performance of raisins from India

An evaluation of export performance of Indian raisins over a 20-year period (2005-06 to 2024-25) demonstrates a rapid expansion in India's raisin exports across volumes, value and unit realizations. It is evident from the table 1 Overall significantly high and positive growth was noticed in the export value of raisins whereas low growth was noticed in the export prices. The similar results were obtained by Gurindapalli et al. (2025) [2] and T. Priyanka et al. (2024) [3] . Ultimately, this decade-long trade expansion is driven by abundant raw grape supplies, shade-drying infrastructure, cold storage networks, APEDA export incentives along with growing international demand for nutritious processed items, competitive export pricing and strategic market diversification.

Sub period-wise growth in raisin exports from India

Comparative assessment of period wise trade given in table 2 shows that India's raisin export performance shifted over time, moving from an initial rapid expansion phase

Countrywise growth in the export of raisins from India

An assessment of country-specific Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) over the 20-year period from 2005-06 to 2024-25 confirms a strong, statistically significant expansion of raisin exports across most major destination markets for Indian raisins as shown in table 3. When evaluating export quantity, Vietnam recorded the highest CAGR at 39.01 per cent per annum, owing to its expanding commercial food processing sector, economic growth and trade integration. It was followed closely by Sri Lanka at 33.25 per cent, with statistically significant positive growth rates also documented in Malaysia, Romania, Morocco, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Conversely, volume expansion in Ukraine (6.65 per cent) and the United Arab Emirates (4.12 per cent) yielded low CAGR values that were statistically nonsignificant owing to geopolitical frictions, supply chain disruptions and fluctuations in demand that severely constrained trade flows. Looking at export revenue, Vietnam achieved the highest CAGR at 42.63 per cent per annum, followed by Sri Lanka at 39.96 per cent, alongside significant positive revenue growth across Malaysia, Romania, Morocco, Russia and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, export value growth rates in the United Arab Emirates (9.54 per cent) and Ukraine (8.60 per cent) remained non-significant over the two-decade timespan. Analysing export unit prices, Sri Lanka registered the highest statistically significant CAGR at 5.03 per cent per annum, with positive growth rates also registered across Malaysia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Morocco, Romania and Ukraine. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates showed a unit price growth rate of 5.20 per cent per annum, which was found to be statistically non-significant.

Sub period-wise growth in the raisin exports to destination markets

Conclusion

India's raisin export trade demonstrated a strong upward trend over the 20-year period, marked by significant growth in export quantity, value, and prices. While overall export quantities and values showed positive growth across most destinations, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates recorded non-significant long-term growth. Vietnam achieved the highest significant growth in both quantity and value, followed by Sri Lanka and Malaysia. In terms of export prices, Sri Lanka registered the highest significant growth rate, followed by Malaysia, Russia and Vietnam whereas the United Arab Emirates experienced non-significant price growth, with all other importing countries showing significant positive increases. The Period I was charac terized by massive growth driven by markets like Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Ukraine. Although overall growth slowed in Period II, Morocco and Vietnam emerged as dynamic new markets, experiencing substantial increases in both export quantity and value.

Suggestions

From the above study, it is suggested that; i. Growth trends analysis showed that Vietnam, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Morocco are high growth destination markets of Indian raisins in terms of export quantity, export value and export prices. Thus, trade promotion efforts and raisin export flows may prioritize these high performing importing countries for long term prospects in international trade.

ii. To address stagnation in export price growth, Indian raisin exporters may invest in modern drying technologies, scientific processing methods, residue-free crop protection, strict size grading and premium packaging to enhance compliance with phyto-sanitary protocols and product competitiveness against leading global exporting countries.

References

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