Trends in Area, Production and Productivity of Sugarcane in India, Maharashtra and Kolhapur District

Introduction

Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is the principal source of sweeteners in India and one of the country's most important commercial crops, forming the raw material base for the sugar, jaggery and ethanol industries. Although it is cultivated on only about 2.5 per cent of the gross cropped area of the country, it contributes nearly 1.1 per cent to the national GDP, reflecting its high value per unit area relative to most other field crops. The crop and its allied industries support the livelihood of more than five crore farmers and provide direct and indirect employment to millions of agricultural and industrial workers, making sugarcane cultivation central to rural industrialisation and socio-economic development in the producing regions. India is also the world's largest producer of jaggery, accounting for a substantial share of global output, with a sizeable proportion of the country's sugarcane crop diverted each year towards jaggery and khandsari manufacturing. India ranks second in the world in both area and production of sugarcane, after Brazil, and records the highest productivity among the major sugarcane-producing countries, reflecting the widespread adoption of improved varieties and better crop-management practices. Within the country, sugarcane is grown under two broad agro-climatic regions, tropical and sub-tropical, and its cultivation is spread across several states, of which Uttar Pradesh leads in terms of area while Maharashtra, aided by favourable agro-climatic conditions and a strong cooperative sugar sector, records the highest sugarcane productivity among the major producing states. Within Maharashtra, Kolhapur district occupies a prominent position on account of its assured irrigation network along the Panchganga and Krishna river basins, fertile alluvial and black soils, and a dense network of cooperative and private sugar factories, all of which make sugarcane integral to the livelihood of rural households in the district. Despite its economic importance, the area, production and productivity of sugarcane in India have not followed a uniform or steady trend; the crop has instead shown a persistently fluctuating pattern of growth. This is attributable to a combination of factors, including unpredictable monsoon conditions, water scarcity, government sugarcane-pricing policy, delays in payment by sugar mills and the generally low level of mechanisation among small and marginal sugarcane farmers. Because these constraints operate with different intensity at the national, state and district level, an examination of sugarcane performance confined to a single spatial level can mask important local variation. A comparative assessment of trends across the country, the state and a leading producing district is therefore useful in identifying whether growth in sugarcane output is being driven mainly by expansion of area or by genuine improvement in yield, and whether instability in cultivation is more pronounced at higher or lower levels of aggregation. Against this background, the present study was undertaken with the specific objectives of (i) examining the trend in area, production and productivity of sugarcane in India, Maharashtra and Kolhapur district over the available reference periods, and (ii) comparing the compound annual growth rates and the degree of instability in area, production and productivity across these three spatial levels.

Methodology

The study is based entirely on secondary data. Time-series data on area, production and productivity of sugarcane for India and for Maharashtra state, covering the period 2005-06 to 2024-25, were compiled from published reports of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. Corresponding data for Kolhapur district, covering the period 2003-04 to 2022-23, were compiled from the Department of Economics and Statistics (E and S), DAC, New Delhi. Kolhapur district was purposively selected for the district-level analysis in view of its high sugarcane area, production and recovery rate within Maharashtra.

Statistical Analysis of Data. A) Percentage change in area, production and productivity of Sugarcane

The year-to-year percentage change in area, production and productivity was worked out as: The compound annual growth rates (CAGR) were obtained by using the logarithmic form of the equation.

Log Y= Log a + t Log b

The compound growth rate (CAGR) in per cent = Antilog (b-1) x 100 The compound growth rates were tested for their significance by using Student's' t test.

t =

𝒃 𝑺𝑬

C) Coefficient of Variability

The coefficient of variation around the mean was utilised to measure instability in the area, production and productivity of sugarcane. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) was calculated by using the formula, 𝑪𝑽 (𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕) =𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝑫𝒆𝒗𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑴𝒆𝒂𝒏×𝟏𝟎𝟎 The Coefficient of Variation (CV) classification outlined by Harka et al. (2021) [7] is: a. CV is less than 20: less variation b. CV is between 20 to 30: moderate variation c. CV is greater than 30: high variation d. CV is greater than 50: very high variation

Results and Discussion

Trends in Area, Production and Productivity of Sugarcane in India

Table 1 presents the trend in area, production and productivity of sugarcane in India over the twenty-year period 2005-06 to 2024-25. The area under sugarcane cultivation increased from 4,202.00 thousand hectares in 2005-06 to 5,449.93 thousand hectares in 2024-25, registering an overall increase of about 29.70 per cent, though the year-to-year movement was distinctly fluctuating rather than steady. Area recorded a sharp jump of 22.58 per cent in 2006-07, followed by successive contractions during 2007-08 to 2009-10 and again a fall of 9.97 per cent in 2016-17, before recovering to a peak of 5,885.32 thousand hectares in 2022-23 and then declining again in the last two years of the series. Production followed a broadly similar but steeper trajectory, rising from 281,172.00 thousand tonnes in 2005-06 to 454,610.97 thousand tonnes in 2024-25, an overall increase of about 61.68 per cent. Production growth outpaced area growth in most years, most visibly in 2006-07 (26.44%), 2017-18 (24.12%) and 2020-21 (9.42%), indicating that yield gains rather than area expansion alone were driving output in these years. Productivity improved from 66.91 tonnes per hectare in 2005-06 to 83.42 tonnes per hectare in 2024-25, an increase of about 24.67 per cent, but the improvement was uneven, with a notable dip in 2008-09 (-6.24%) and 2018-19, and a sharp rise of 16.23 per cent in 2017-18 that lifted productivity above 80 tonnes per hectare for the first time in the series and kept it there for most subsequent years. Since the growth in production consistently exceeded the growth in productivity over the period, the expansion of national sugarcane output has been driven jointly by area expansion and yield improvement, with area playing the comparatively larger role, a pattern consistent with the area-led national growth reported by Bee and Rahman (2020) [4] for the earlier period 1985-2015 and by Singh et al. (2022) [10] . The decline recorded in the last two years of the series, area falling by 2.48 per cent in 2023-24 and a further 5.05 per cent in 2024-25, and production falling by 7.62 per cent in 2023-24, is largely explained by weather-related and crop-health factors that affected the major producing states together. Below-average rainfall during 2023 lowered reservoir levels across Maharashtra and Karnataka, subjecting the standing sugarcane crop to prolonged water stress, while the subsequent 2024 monsoon brought excessive and unevenly distributed rainfall with limited sunshine that further stunted crop growth and reduced sugarcane yield by an estimated 10 to 15 tonnes per hectare in the worst-affected tracts. In Uttar Pradesh, the country's largest sugarcane-growing state, output was additionally depressed by red-rot infestation in the widely planted CO 0238 variety, which forced farmers into premature uprooting, crop rotation and replanting. A part of the reduced sugarcane availability for sugar production in these years also reflects diversion of standing sugarcane towards seed for fresh planting after the 2023-24 drought and towards ethanol manufacture under the government's ethanolblending programme, rather than an equivalent fall in the crop actually grown. Together, these climatic, disease and diversion-related factors account for the simultaneous decline in both area and production observed nationally in the most recent years of the series. [5] and Adhale et al.

(2019) [1] , sugarcane output growth in Maharashtra over the study period was driven predominantly by area expansion, with productivity contributing a comparatively smaller and more erratic share. The sharp fall in production of 9.58 and 1.89 per cent in 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively, and in area of 18.79 per cent in 2024-25, was driven by a combination of factors specific to the state in these years. The 2023 monsoon was deficient over large parts of Maharashtra, lowering reservoir storage and forcing farmers to divert part of the standing crop towards planting material (Sugarcane setts) for the following season instead of sending it for crushing, which reduced both the effective area harvested and the sugarcane actually crushed in 2024-25. Insufficient and unevenly distributed rainfall during the 2024 growing season further affected sugrcane quality and growth. Crushing operations were also delayed because the state government postponed the start of the season to mid-November 2024 on account of the state assembly elections, shortening the effective crushing period, while several border districts lost sugarcane to Karnataka's sugar factories, which commenced crushing roughly a fortnight earlier. In addition, a policy shift permitting greater use of sugarcane juice and Bheavy molasses for ethanol production redirected a part of the sugarcane crop away from sugar manufacture. Consequently, mills in Maharashtra crushed nearly 19 per cent less sugarcane and produced about 24 per cent less sugar in 2024-25 than in 2023-24, mirroring the fall recorded in the area and production series. Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. Because the growth in production in Kolhapur exceeded that of area by the widest margin of the three units studied, and because productivity itself registered the highest overall gain, the expansion of sugarcane output in the district reflects a comparatively stronger yield contribution than at either the state or the national level. The decline recorded in the terminal year of the series, area down by 1.12 per cent, production down by 7.75 per cent and productivity down by 6.42 per cent in 2022-23, follows a period of unusually heavy and erratic monsoon rainfall in the district and the wider western Maharashtra region. Maharashtra received about 120 per cent of its average rainfall between June and October 2022, with natural disasters affecting roughly 2.5 million hectares of cropped area across the state in that period alone. In low-lying and river-adjoining sugarcane tracts of Kolhapur, along the Panchganga and Krishna basins, this excess rainfall caused prolonged waterlogging and, in several pockets, flooding of standing sugarcane fields, which damaged the crop, encouraged fungal infection in submerged fields, and reduced both the sugarcane weight harvested per hectare and its sugar recovery. These conditions were part of the same erratic-rainfall pattern that pulled down Maharashtra's overall sugar output by about 8 per cent in the 2022-23 season, and they illustrate the district's continuing exposure to flood risk even as its long-term productivity trend has remained upward. with a corresponding CV of 21.17, 28.27 and 11.90 per cent for area, production and productivity, respectively -again reflecting area-led growth accompanied by relatively higher instability in production. 4. At all three levels, area and production were considerably more unstable than productivity, and this instability increased as the unit of analysis narrowed from the country to the district; a common factor behind this pattern is the continuing influence of monsoon variability, water availability and sugarcane-pricing policy on farmers' area-allocation decisions. 5. Kolhapur district recorded the highest productivity among the three levels, with productivity rising from 56.60 to 90.10 tonnes per hectare (an overall increase of about 59.19 per cent), attributable to assured irrigation along the Panchganga and Krishna river basins and the adoption of high-yielding varieties such as Co 86032.

Given that yield gains, where they occurred, were comparatively more stable than area-driven gains, policies aimed at strengthening irrigation assurance, promoting high-yielding varieties and stabilising sugarcane-pricing arrangements would help convert the observed area-led growth in Maharashtra and Kolhapur into more sustainable, yield-led growth in the years ahead.

suggestions 1. Strengthening irrigation and climate-resilient water management

Farmers should be encouraged to adopt efficient irrigation systems such as drip irrigation, proper water scheduling and rainwater harvesting to reduce the impact of drought, excess rainfall and waterlogging on sugarcane area and production.

Promoting productivity-oriented cultivation and improved varieties

Greater emphasis should be given to the adoption of highyielding and climate-resilient sugarcane varieties, balanced nutrient management and improved agronomic practices to enhance productivity and reduce dependence on expansion of cultivated area for increasing sugarcane production.

3.Timely and remunerative sugarcane pricing

Stable and remunerative sugarcane prices should be ensured to reduce fluctuations in farmers' decisions regarding area allocation and to encourage sustainable sugarcane cultivation.

Acknowledgement

The author extends sincere thanks to the Agricultural Economics Section, Rajashree Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj Government College of Agriculture, Kolhapur, Maharashtra, India, for providing the necessary facilities and academic environment required for undertaking and successfully completing this research work. The author also expresses sincere gratitude to all those who extended their valuable support, encouragement and cooperation during the course of the study. Special thanks are extended to colleagues and friends for their constant encouragement, constructive suggestions and cooperation, which greatly contributed to the successful completion of this research work.

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