Geographical Study of the Impact of Climate Uncertainty on Agricultural Productivity in Latur District (2015-2026)

Latur district, located in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra, is one of the most drought-prone districts in the state. Agriculture in the district is predominantly rainfed; therefore, climatic uncertainty—manifested through fluctuations in rainfall, recurring droughts, and rising temperatures—has a direct impact on agricultural productivity. This study examines the nature of climate uncertainty and its geographical impact on agricultural productivity during the period from 2015 to 2026.The study is based on secondary data collected from District Socio-Economic Reviews, rainfall records, and Agricultural Production Index (API) statistics. Statistical analysis reveals a strong positive correlation (r = 0.84) between annual rainfall and the Agricultural Production Index. During severe drought years such as 2015 and 2021, the API declined by approximately 20-30 percent. Major crops, including soybean, pigeon pea (tur), and sugarcane, were the most adversely affected. Furthermore, the farmer suicide rate exhibited a strong negative correlation with rainfall (r = -0.95), indicating increased socio-economic distress during drought years.The study highlights the urgent need to promote drought-resilient crops, strengthen watershed management practices, and formulate climate-resilient agricultural policies to ensure sustainable agricultural development in Latur district.

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Rainfall (mm) and API (Base Year 2010 = 100): 2015 vs 2016 vs 2017 vs 2018 vs 2019Close ×

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Introduction

Climate change and the resulting climate uncertainty have emerged as major global challenges for the agricultural sector. As India is predominantly an agrarian country, agriculture largely depends on the monsoon. The Marathwada region of Maharashtra is particularly drought-prone, and Latur district is one of the most vulnerable districts in this region. More than 70 percent of agriculture in the district is rainfed. Consequently, irregular rainfall, frequent droughts, and rising temperatures have led to significant fluctuations in agricultural productivity. During the period from 2015 to 2026, Latur district experienced several drought years. Among these, 2015 and 2021 were the most severe drought years, with rainfall considerably below the long-term average. As a result, the Agricultural Production Index (API) declined sharply. The productivity of major crops such as soybean, sorghum (jowar), pigeon pea (tur), and chickpea (gram) decreased substantially. This led to increased economic stress on farmers and a rise in the number of farmer suicides. From a geographical perspective, these impacts need to be studied because agricultural productivity is influenced by the combined effects of soil type, topography, irrigation facilities, and local climatic conditions. The significance of this study lies in its close association with farmers' livelihoods and the rural economy. The findings will contribute to the formulation of climate-resilient agricultural policies. The study is entirely based on secondary data and employs appropriate statistical methods for analysis.

Study Area

Latur district is situated between 17 °52′ and 18 °50′ North latitude and 76 °18′ and 77 °18′ East longitude in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra, India. The district covers a geographical area of approximately 7,157 square kilometres (7.15 lakh hectares), of which about 6.65 lakh hectares are under cultivation. Administratively, the district comprises ten tehsils: Latur, Ausa, Nilanga, Udgir, Ahmedpur, Renapur, Chakur, Deoni, Jalkot, and Shirur Anantpal. The soils of the district are predominantly black cotton soils, ranging from shallow to deep in depth. The climate is hot semi-arid, with an average annual rainfall ranging between 680 and 734 mm. The Manjara River and its tributaries constitute the principal sources of irrigation; however, the irrigated area remains limited. Being located in the rainshadow region of the Western Ghats, the district experiences highly erratic rainfall. According to the 2011 Census, nearly 71.4 percent of the population is directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. The analysis indicates that the average annual rainfall of the district is 680 mm, with a standard deviation of 98 mm and a coefficient of variation of 14.42%, reflecting moderate

Objectives of the

Objectives of the

Temperature and Other Climatic Factors

The number of hot days has increased significantly over time. In 1960, the district experienced 147 days with temperatures above 32°C, whereas this number increased to 188 days by 2019. This trend is expected to continue under future climate change scenarios. In addition, groundwater levels have declined considerably, and the depth of several wells has exceeded 600 metres, indicating increasing pressure on groundwater resources due to prolonged droughts and rising water demand. These environmental changes have intensified water scarcity and further reduced the resilience of the agricultural sector in Latur district.

Impact on Agricultural Productivity

The statistical analysis reveals a strong positive correlation (r = 0.84) between annual rainfall and the Agricultural Production Index (API) in Latur district. This indicates that higher rainfall generally leads to improved agricultural productivity, whereas drought conditions significantly reduce crop production.

During severe drought years, the Agricultural Production Index declined by approximately 20-30 percent. Waterintensive crops such as soybean, pigeon pea (tur), and sugarcane were the most severely affected. In contrast, drought-tolerant crops such as sorghum (jowar) showed comparatively better resilience; however, their overall productivity also declined under prolonged drought conditions.

In the Kharif season, crops such as soybean and pigeon pea experienced substantial yield reductions due to erratic rainfall. Similarly, in the Rabi season, the productivity of chickpea and wheat was adversely affected by inadequate soil moisture. The years 2015 and 2021 witnessed extensive crop failures because of severe drought. Since only a limited area in the district is irrigated, agriculture remains highly dependent on monsoon rainfall, making crop production extremely vulnerable to climatic uncertainty.

Socio-Economic Impacts

Climate uncertainty has imposed considerable economic and social stress on farming households in Latur district.

Frequent droughts have resulted in increasing indebtedness, migration, school dropouts, and health-related problems, thereby affecting the overall well-being of rural communities.

The study found a strong negative correlation (r = -0.95) between annual rainfall and the farmer suicide rate. Lower rainfall and prolonged drought conditions were associated with a higher incidence of farmer suicides, reflecting the severe socio-economic consequences of climate variability The analysis of socio-economic impacts indicates that migration accounted for 30%, indebtedness for 25%, school dropouts for 20%, health-related problems for 15%, and mental health issues for 10% of the major consequences associated with climate uncertainty in the district.

Discussion

The findings of the study indicate that climate uncertainty in Latur district is closely associated with its geographical characteristics. The district is located in the rain-shadow region of the Western Ghats, resulting in highly irregular rainfall. Although the predominance of black cotton soils enables greater moisture retention, prolonged droughts eventually dry out even these soils, thereby reducing their capacity to support crop growth. The limited extent of irrigation infrastructure has further increased the dependence of agriculture on monsoon rainfall. Consequently, climatic variability has a direct and substantial impact on agricultural productivity. The increasing cultivation of crops such as soybean, which require relatively higher water availability, has further heightened the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to drought conditions. Prolonged droughts lead to reduced agricultural production, declining farm income and increasing indebtedness among farmers. These economic hardships often contribute to higher incidences of farmer suicides. The study also reveals geographical disparities within the district, with comparatively lower adverse impacts observed in areas having better irrigation facilities than in predominantly rainfed regions.

Conclusion and Recommendations Conclusion

The present study concludes that climate uncertainty had a significant negative impact on agricultural productivity in Latur district during the period 2015-2026. A strong positive relationship exists between annual rainfall and the Agricultural Production Index (API), indicating that rainfall remains the most critical determinant of agricultural performance in the district. During extreme drought years, agricultural production declined by approximately 20-30 percent, accompanied by severe socio-economic consequences, including increased indebtedness, migration, and farmer suicides.

Figures and tables from the paper

Year	Rainfall (mm)	API (Base Year 2010 = 100)	Drought Status
2015	550	76	Extreme
2016	820	95	Normal
2017	770	93	Mild
2018	650	85	Severe
2019	610	80	Severe
2020	590	78	Severe
2021	540	73	Extreme
2022	680	89	Moderate
2023	730	92	Mild
2024	610	98	Normal
2025	640	90	Mild-Moderate

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Latur District - Annual Rainfall, Agricultural Production Index (API), and Drought Status (2015-2026)

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Year	Farmer Suicide Rate
2015	30
2016	17
2017	19
2018	26
2019	28
2020	32
2021	35
2022	22
2023	20
2024	29
2025	27

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Farmer Suicide Rate in Latur District (Per 100,000 Population)

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Original paper tableSource PDF · page 3 ↗

1. Jadhav VS. Statistical Analysis of Drought Impact on Agricultural Sector in Latur District, Maharashtra. Int J Stat Appl Math. 2025;10(7A):39-45.
2. Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra. District-wise APY Estimates. 2025. http://krishi.maharashtra.gov.in/
3. Indian Districts. Agriculture -Latur. 2025. https://indiandistricts.in/statistics/maharashtra/latur/agri culture/
4. Katke AK. A Geographical Study of Change in Fruit Cultivation Area in Latur District. Int J Geogr Geol Environ. 2024;6(1).
5. Kelkar SM, Kulkarni A, Rao KK. Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Crop Production in Maharashtra, India. Curr Sci. 2020;118(8).
6. Zilla Parishad Latur. Agriculture Department. 2026. https://zplatur.gov.in/en/agriculture-department/