Growth and instability in area, production and productivity of sugarcane in India

Introduction

Agricultural commodities play an important role in India's economy through production, employment, processing and trade. Sugarcane is one of the important commercial crops of the country and has strong linkages with the agro-processing sector. The performance of sugarcane production is therefore important not only for farmers but also for the sugar industry and related economic activities. India is one of the major sugarcane-producing countries in the world. Sugarcane cultivation provides raw material for sugar processing and contributes to farm income, rural employment and the wider agro-industrial economy. The performance of sugarcane production is influenced by cultivated area, productivity, irrigation, production technology, weather conditions, input management and price and policy conditions. An assessment of growth and instability in sugarcane area, production and productivity is important for understanding the long-term performance of the crop. While expansion of cultivated area can increase output, sustained production growth also depends on improvement in productivity. At the same time, fluctuations in production can affect the availability of sugarcane for processing and consequently influence the functioning of the sugar industry. The present study therefore focuses specifically on the growth and instability of sugarcane area, production and productivity in India during 2004-05 to 2023-24. The objective was to quantify the long-term growth pattern and the extent of variability in these three components.

Materials and Methods Study Area and Period of Study

The study covered the entire country of India. Secondary time-series data on sugarcane area, production and productivity were analysed for twenty years from 2004-05 to 2023-24.

Nature and Sources of Data

The study was entirely based on secondary data. Data relating to sugarcane area, production and productivity were obtained from published sources used in the thesis, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Directorate General of www.extensionjournal.com Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) and other relevant organizations.

Analytical Tools

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was used to examine the trend in sugarcane area, production and productivity. The growth equation was estimated using an exponential growth function and transformed into semilogarithmic form. The statistical significance of the regression coefficient was tested using the Student's t-test. The compound annual growth rate was estimated using the exponential growth function assuming additive error terms as follows:

Where, Y = Depended variable for which growth rate is to be estimated (Quantity exported / export value / unit value) a = Intercept b = Regression Coefficient t = Time Variable The equation was transformed into a semi-log form as:

The percentage compound growth rate (g) was computed as:

The statistical significance of the estimated regression coefficient was tested using the student's 't' test.

Instability Index

To study the variability in area, production, productivity of sugarcane and export quantity and export value of sugar, an instability index was used. The degree of instability was measured using the Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI).

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

Wherever the trend in the time series data was found to be non-significant, instability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. It was calculated using the following formula:

Where Descriptive statistical tools such as averages and percentages were used to summarize and present the data in tabular form for meaningful interpretation and analysis.

Results and Discussion

Descriptive Statistics

The descriptive statistics in Table 1

Growth in Area, Production and Productivity

The estimated CAGR in Table 2 showed positive growth in all three components. Sugarcane area increased at 0.925 per cent per annum, production increased at 2.094 per cent per annum and productivity increased at 1.391 per cent per annum. All three growth rates were statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Production recorded the highest growth, followed by productivity and area. The higher growth rate of production compared with area indicates that improvement in productivity made an important contribution to the increase in sugarcane output. Area expanded more slowly, whereas productivity showed a stronger rate of growth. The significant t-values further confirm that the estimated growth rates represented systematic upward trends rather than random year-to-year variation.

Instability in Area, Production and Productivity

The instability analysis in Table 3 showed that sugarcane production experienced the highest variability among the three components. The CV was 0.16 for production compared with 0.10 for area and 0.09 for productivity. Similarly, the CDVI was 0.09 for production, 0.08 for area and 0.04 for productivity. The higher instability in production indicates that sugarcane output was more susceptible to year-to-year fluctuations than cultivated area and productivity. Productivity showed the lowest instability according to both measures, suggesting comparatively greater stability in yield performance during the study period. The pattern also indicates that changes in www.extensionjournal.com production were influenced not only by changes in area but also by fluctuations in productivity and other production conditions.

Conclusion

The study examined growth and instability in sugarcane area, production and productivity in India during 2004-05 to 2023-24. The results revealed positive and statistically significant growth in all three components. Area, production and productivity grew at 0.925, 2.094 and 1.391 per cent per annum, respectively. Production recorded the highest growth rate, indicating that productivity improvement contributed substantially to the increase in sugarcane output. The instability analysis revealed that production had the highest variability, while productivity was comparatively more stable. The CV and CDVI values for production were 0.16 and 0.09, respectively, compared with 0.10 and 0.08 for area and 0.09 and 0.04 for productivity. Overall, the findings indicate sustained growth in India's sugarcane sector but also highlight the need to reduce fluctuations in output.

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