An analysis of the growth rate of minor millets in Chhattisgarh

Introduction

Millets are among the oldest foods known to humankind and were possibly the first cereal grains to be cultivated for domestic use. They are small-seeded grasses that are hardy and well suited to dry zones, growing well as rain-fed crops under marginal conditions of soil fertility and moisture. Millets are also distinctive for their short growing season. The important millet crops grown in India are sorghum (great millet), bajra (pearl millet), ragi (finger millet), and the small millets, namely kutki/korra (foxtail millet), little millet, kodo millet, proso millet, and barnyard millet. These crops were traditionally referred to as coarse cereals, but in recognition of their nutrient richness they have since been notified as "Nutri-Cereals" by the Government of India. Minor millets have versatile uses for direct meals as well as in food processing, animal feed, and distilleries (Annual Report 2021. ICAR-IIMR, Hyderabad) According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), world production of millets stood at 88.16 million tonnes from an area of 126 million hectares, with India the largest producer, accounting for around 40.91% of world production (FAO, 2024).

In Chhattisgarh, the total area under minor millets in 2022-23 was 50.34 thousand hectares, with total production of 23.84 thousand tonnes and an average yield of 4.37 quintals/ha. Within the state, the top five districts of Chhattisgarh together account for 73.45% (17,519 tonnes) of total state output. Bastar leads with a 32.07% share (7,649 tonnes), followed by Dantewada with 13.75% (3,279 tonnes), Kabirdham (Kawardha) with 13.35% (3,184 tonnes), Kanker with 7.94% (1,894 tonnes), and Jashpur the leading district of the Northern Hills zone with 6.34% (1,513 tonnes) (Directorate of Economics, Statistics & Evaluation, Government of India, 2022-23).

Methodology

Study area

The study was conducted in the state of Chhattisgarh, focusing on five districts that account for the bulk of the state's minor millet production: Kawardha (Kabirdham), Jashpur, Dantewada, Bastar, and Kanker. The location of these five sample districts within Chhattisgarh is presented in Figure 1. www.extensionjournal.com

Data collection

The study is based on secondary time-series data covering a twenty-three-year period, from 2000-01 to 2022-23, on the area, production, and productivity of minor millets. Data were sourced from the Directorate of Economics, Statistics & Evaluation (ES&E), Government of India (2023).

Analytical tools Compound Growth Rate (CGR)

The compound growth rate in area, production, and productivity of minor millets was estimated by fitting an exponential growth function of the form Y = a•bᵗ to the timeseries data, where the regression coefficient b was obtained from the log-linear form of the equation. The compound growth rate was then computed as:

where b is the regression coefficient of time obtained from the fitted log-linear trend equation. The statistical significance of each estimated growth rate was tested using the corresponding p-value, with significance levels reported at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.

Results and Discussion

Compound growth rate (CGR) of area, production, and productivity of minor millets in Chhattisgarh

The compound growth rates (CGR) in area, production, and productivity of minor millets across the study area are presented in Table 1. The area and production of minor millets showed statistically significant negative growth for Chhattisgarh state as a whole and for every sampled district, significant at the 1% level. The steepest decline in area was recorded in Kawardha (-8.81% per annum), followed by Kanker (-8.51%) and Dantewada (-7.55%). In terms of production, Kawardha and Dantewada districts registered the sharpest negative growth, at -5.58% and -5.00% per annum, respectively. Productivity (yield), by contrast, showed positive growth rates across all analysed regions. Except for Bastar district, where the positive growth rate of 4.63% was statistically nonsignificant (NS), productivity growth was significant across the rest of the study area. Kanker district recorded the highest productivity growth, at 5.21% per annum (significant at the 5% level), followed by Kawardha (3.54%) and Chhattisgarh state as a whole (3.12%). This indicates that yield improvements have partially cushioned the effect of the substantial contraction in cultivated area on total production. District-wise and state-level trends in area, production, and productivity Tables 2 to 7 present the year-wise area, production, and productivity of minor millets for Bastar, Dantewada, Jashpur, Kawardha, and Kanker districts, and for Chhattisgarh state as a whole, over the period 2000-01 to 2022-23. The corresponding trends are depicted graphically in Figures 2 to 7. Across all districts, cultivated area shows a broadly declining trajectory over the study period, while productivity shows a gradual improvement, particularly from the mid-2010s onward, with a marked upturn in most districts from 2020-21.

Conclusion

The structural and statistical analysis undertaken in this study yields several important conclusions regarding the long-term trend performance and regional dynamics of minor millets in Chhattisgarh. Based on the compound growth rate (CGR) estimates for the period 2000-01 to 2022-23, minor millets are found to be experiencing a severe contraction in cultivated area across the state. The highly significant negative growth rates in area at the state level (-7.24%) and across every individual district, peaking in Kawardha at -8.81% confirm a sustained shift of land away from these traditional crops. This contraction in area has, in turn, directly depressed total production across the entire study area.

A more encouraging counter-trend, however, is observed in productivity. Yield growth rates were positive across all analysed regions, and statistically significant everywhere except Bastar district, where the 4.63% growth rate was nonsignificant. Kanker district recorded the highest significant productivity growth, at 5.21%. This positive yield growth suggests that recent improvements in production efficiency and farming practices have partly offset the production losses associated with the shrinking area under cultivation. Geographically, the minor millet sector in Chhattisgarh is marked by a pronounced regional concentration. The Bastar Plateau (southern zone) stands out as the dominant production hub, accounting for 57.18% of cultivated area and 63.36% of total state output, supported by a superior regional yield of 5.24 quintals/ha. The top five producing districts Bastar, Dantewada, Kabirdham (Kawardha), Kanker, and Jashpur together account for 73.45% of total state production, indicating that targeted commercial and developmental interventions could be concentrated in these high-efficiency hubs for maximum impact. Overall, while productivity gains are evident and encouraging, the long-term commercial viability of minor millets in Chhattisgarh will depend on institutional interventions that strengthen market linkages, expand processing infrastructure, and provide price incentives to arrest the continuing decline in cultivated area.

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