Trends of area, production, productivity and exports of rice in India and Telangana

Introduction

Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy. Agriculture and allied sectors account for around 17.94 per cent of India's GDP for the year 2024-2025. Roughly one-fifth of the GDP is derived from agriculture. Approximately two-thirds of the nation's population depends on agriculture for their livelihood (Central Statistical Organization). Agriculture is the largest private sector occupation and employs half of the nation's workforce. About 10 per cent of export earnings comes from agriculture, and it is source of raw materials to many allied sectors. Above all, agriculture is the only source of food security for the nation. In addition to meeting the food security of nation, Indian agriculture has become a significant contributor to international agricultural trade by exporting a variety of agricultural products. Rice is one of the most important food crops in the world and serves as the staple food for more than half of the global population. Scientifically it is known as Oryza sativa and it belongs to the grass family Poaceae. Rice has been originated in South East Asia, particularly in parts of modern-day India, Burma and neighbouring nations and eventually made its way from Asia to Africa, Europe, and America. India is one of the world's largest exporters of rice and it is particularly wellknown for basmati and non-basmati rice varieties. Due to its quality, aroma, taste, and competitive prices Indian rice highly demanded in the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Asia.

Rice is widely grown and serving as a staple food for more than 60 per cent of the world's population. According to USDA-FAS database, global rice production in 2024-25 was estimated at around 537.7 million metric tonnes. Asia alone produces approximately 485-490 million metric tonnes contributing nearly 90 per cent of world rice production. For the year 2024-25 India has become the world's largest rice producer, with total rice output of about 150.18 million metric tonnes (which contributes nearly 28% of total global production) surpassing the China which produced 145.28 million metric tonnes. Over the past three decades, the consistent growth of rice production in India has not only ensured food security in the nation but also helped to become one of the world's largest rice exporters (Adhikari et al., 2016) [2] . Favourable monsoon conditions, extensive irrigation facilities, and the adoption of high-yielding varieties helped India to maintain its leading position in global rice production. In India, Uttar Pradesh has been the largest rice producing state with the total production of 20.76 million tonnes accounting about 13.82 per cent of total rice output in the country followed by Telangana, West Bengal, Punjab, Chhattisgarh for the year 2024-25. These top 5 major rice producing states together contribute nearly to 50 per cent of country's rice output (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2024-25). Favourable monsoon conditions, irrigation www.extensionjournal.com expansion, and strong procurement support led the Uttar Pradesh to occupy top position in rice production. Telangana has emerged as one of India's top rice-producing states. Rice production has increased from 4 million metric tonnes in the year 2015-16 to over 17.45 million metric tonnes in 2024-25, contributing about 11.62 per cent of the nation's total rice output (Economic Survey 2024-25). This made Telangana the second largest rice producing state in India after Uttar Pradesh. The increase production is mainly due to irrigation expansion such as Kaleshwaram project, strong government support and large scale paddy procurement by the state government. Rice is one of the important agricultural commodities traded in the international market. Rice exports contribute greatly to agricultural growth, rural development, and international trade and plays a key role in the economy of many developing countries by generating foreign exchange earnings and providing income and employment opportunities to farmers, traders, and exporters. The total global rice exports during 2024-2025 were estimated about 60.89 million metric tonnes (USDA-FAS). International rice trade is mainly dominated by Asian countries, which account for more than 85% of total world rice exports. India remained the world's largest rice exporter during 2024-25 with exports of around 20.19 million metric tonnes (APEDA). The major exports of rice include Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Cambodia and The United States. India has emerged as the major rice exporter since 2017-18 onwards replacing Thailand and accounts for about 40% of total rice exports in the world. Indian rice was exported to more than 150 countries worldwide. Total 20.19 million tonnes of rice have been exported from India in the year 2024-25 with total export value of US$12.47 billion (DGCIS, 2024-25). India exported about 6.06 million tonnes of Basmati rice, major importers included Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, The United Arab Emirates, The United States, and Yemen. The export of non-Basmati rice reached approximately 14.12 million tonnes, with key destinations being Benin, Guinea, Iraq, and Nepal. In India, Punjab is the leading rice export state followed by Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and West Bengal. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal are significant exporters of non-Basmati rice whereas Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh account for the majority of Basmati rice exports. Telangana plays a key role in India's non-Basmati rice exports. The state boasts a robust network of rice mills and parboiled rice processing facilities, particularly in districts like Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Nalgonda, Warangal, and Khammam. The rice produced in Telangana is exported to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, African, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries. Telangana's large surplus rice production has made it an important contributor to India's overall rice export growth.

Objectives of the Study

To examine the growth and instability area, production, productivity and exports of rice in India and Telangana.

Materials and Methods

Study Area and Data Source

The present study was conducted for India and Telangana using secondary data collected at both the national and state levels. Secondary data related to area under rice cultivation, production, productivity, quantity of exports were collected from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Economic Survey (GOI), Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operation.

Analytical Tools and Techniques

To analyse the growth and instability of area, production, productivity and exports of rice, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) were employed.

Compound Annual Growth Rate Analysis

Growth rates on area, production, productivity and exports of rice were computed for a period of 10 years from 2015 to 2024. In the proposed study, compound annual growth rates on area, production, productivity and exports of rice in the India and Telangana were estimated by using the exponential growth function of the form,

The positive CAGR value indicates increasing trend of rice exports, and negative CAGR value indicates decreasing trend of rice exports over the study period.

Instability analysis

The extent of variability in area, production, productivity and exports of rice was computed for a period of 10 years from 2015 to 2024. In the proposed study instability of area, production, productivity and exports of rice in the India and Telangana were estimated through Coefficient of Variation and Cuddy Della Velle Index.

Coefficient of variation (C.V)

The Coefficient of Variation is a relative measure of dispersion that expresses variability in a data series as a percentage of the mean. It is useful for comparing the degree of variability between variables having different units or different mean values. C.V is given by the formula,

Low CV -indicates low variability or higher stability High CV -indicates high variability or low stability

Cuddy Della Valle index (CDVI)

The Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) was originally developed by Cuddy and Della Valle in 1978 and is considered the best measure to find instability in www.extensionjournal.com agricultural production. Unlike the simple coefficient of variation (CV), which tends to overstate the extent of fluctuation when a strong trend is present in the data, the CDVI corrects for this by "Detrending" the CV using the coefficient of determination (R²) obtained from a time-trend regression. The index is computed by the formula, C𝑉 𝑡 =CV√1 -𝑅 2 Where,  CV -Coefficient of variation  R² -Coefficient of determination

The resulting values are typically classified into three categories  Low instability (0-15%),  Medium instability (15-30%)  High instability (more than 30%)

A lower value indicates greater stability in export of rice and higher value indicates greater instability and fluctuations over time.

Result and Discussion:

The outcomes of the study are presented and interpreted in this section. Rice productivity in Telangana has increased from 2,913 kg/ha in 2015 to 3,627 kg/ha in 2024, indicating a modest compound growth rate of 1.575 per cent per annum. The Regression coefficient (b= 0.0156) is positive and statistically significant at 10 per cent level significance (t = 2.119, p = 0.067), and the model explains only about 36 per cent of the year-to-year variation (R² = 0.359). The productivity has sharply increased in 2017 and 2019 but again decreased in 2018 and 2020-21 which indicates that a yield series may be influenced more by the natural forces such as seasonal variations in rainfall patterns, pests and diseases rather than a firm technology driven trend.

Growth trends in area, production and productivity of rice in India, 2015-2024

Instability analysis of area, production and productivity of rice in India, 2015-2024

Instability analysis of area, production and productivity of rice in

Instability analysis of exports of rice in India and

Conclusion

This study analysed the growth and instability of area, production, productivity and exports of rice in India and Telangana from 2015 to 2024. The study revealed that the growth in rice production in India is mainly driven by improvements in yield rather than expansion of area, and yield also shows the least instability, making it the most reliable source of production growth. This suggests a positive shift towards productivity-led growth in Indian rice cultivation. The substantial growth in rice production in Telangana is mainly driven by rapid expansion in area rather than yield improvements. Telangana's growth in area, production, productivity gains have been comparatively weak that the state's rice boom has been an area-led rather than a yield-led phenomenon.

Telangana has well performed the national average by a wide margin in area and production growth, but its productivity growth lags behind, whereas India has contrasting patternslow area growth but dependable, significant productivity gains. Telangana's rice economy has grown through horizontal expansion (more land under the crop) whereas India's rice economy shows vertical expansion (more output per hectare), and bridging this productivity gap through productivity-enhancing interventions (improved seed, precision nutrient management, better on-farm water-use efficiency) represents the key opportunity for the state going forward. Although Telangana's rice exports expanded at a faster rate, they were more unstable than India's overall exports. In contrast, India's rice exports exhibited relatively lower growth but greater stability, suggesting a more diversified and resilient export base.

References

1. 3 Growth trend in area, production and productivity of rice in Telangana, 2015-2024
2. Table 3: Trends in area, production and productivity of rice in Telangana, 2015-2024
3. Year Area ('000 ha) Production ('000 tonnes) Productivity (kg/ha) 2015
4. Table 5: Trends in exports of rice in India and Telangana, 2015-2024
5. References 1. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. Agricultural statistics at a glance, 2024-25. New Delhi: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India; 2025.
6. Adhikari A, Sekhon MK, Kaur M. Export of rice from India: performance and determinants. Agricultural Economics Research Review. 2016;29(1):135-150.
7. Cuddy JDA, Della Valle PA. Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 1978;40(1):79-85.
8. Government of Telangana. Economic Survey 2024-25. Hyderabad: Government of Telangana; 2025.
9. Benahal L, Kumari RV, Lavanya T, Meena A. Trends and forecasting of major chemical fertilizer consumption in Telangana: state and district-level analysis. International Journal of Agriculture Extension and Social Development. 2026;9(8):34-39.