Analysis of growth trends, instability and export performance of the Indian coconut sector

Introduction

Coconut (Cocos nucifera), often celebrated as the "Tree of Heaven" or Kalpavriksha, stands as one of the most versatile and economically significant crops in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In India, coconut holds a prominent place not only in agriculture but also as a vital component of cultural tradition, ecological sustainability, and the rural economy. The crop is cultivated year-round, with each part of the palm contributing uniquely to food security, industry, and livelihoods for millions. India, consistently among the world's leading producers, has seen its coconut industry contribute substantially to national GDP amounting to approximately ₹30,749.8 Corers in FY23 and generate export revenues of ₹4,349 crores in FY24-25, even as recent years have shown a decrease in production alongside rising export value. Hence, the present study was carried out to analyze the trend & growth in area, production & productivity and the export trend of coconut in India.

The different techniques used for the study were-Growth rate analysis, Instability analysis and Trend analysis (V.P. Preethi et al.,) [2] .

Compound growth rate

The growth rates were used to measure the past performance of the economic variables. The growth rates in Area, Production and Productivity of Coconut and export Coconut Products in India were analyzed by using exponential growth function as given below. Y = a.bt..... (1) Where, Y = Depended variable for which growth rate is to be estimated (Quantity exported / export value / unit value) a = Intercept b = Regression Coefficient t = Time Variable This equation was estimated after transforming (1) as follows, Log y = log a + t Log b.... (2) Then the percent compound growth rate (g) was computed using the relationship.

The significance of the regression coefficient was tested using the p value.

Instability analysis

In order to study the instability in the Area, production, productivity in India and world and export of coconut, Coefficient of variation and Cuddy Della Valle instability index was used.

Coefficient of variation (CV

Results and Discussion

World Coconut Trend

Global coconut production during 2023 is 67,617 million nuts from 12.39 million hectares annually, yet data reveal notable variability in production trends. As per the annexure 1 the global area under coconut saw a modest year-on-year increase of 1.32 percent, with production rising by 0.89 percent. However, average productivity dipped slightly by -0.41 percent, to 5,457 nuts per hectare from the previous year.

Cote d'Ivoire experienced a substantial 51.92% surge in production and productivity, while the Solomon Islands suffered a drastic -44.13% decline in productivity despite expanding its cultivated area. In Vietnam, both production and productivity saw significant drops of -13.98% and -14.97%, respectively. These shifts highlight that, global coconut agriculture continues to grow in area and output, localized environmental, economic, and management factors drive considerable volatility in productivity across countries. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis for global coconut cultivation between 2014 and 2023 in table 1 shows that the trends in area, production, and productivity have remained largely stagnant. The CAGR for area was -0.101 percent, production -0.198%, and productivity -0.097 percent, with all values statistically non-significant (NS), as indicated by their respective p-values well above the threshold for significance (0.3308, 0.2794, and 0.5920). The R² values for area (0.120), production (0.144), and productivity (0.037) are low, suggesting that the time trend explains only a small fraction of the observed variation in these parameters. These results indicate that there has been no consistent or significant long-term growth or decline in global coconut cultivation, yield, or output during this period.

Indian Coconut Trend

In the fiscal year 2024-25 (2nd advance estimates), India's total coconut cultivation area stood at 2.22 million hectares, recording a growth from 2023-24 increase of 2.3 percent. However, total coconut production declined by 4.6 percent to approximately 20.4 billion nuts, while productivity fell by 6.7 percent to about 9,206 nuts per hectare (Annexure II). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis of coconut cultivation in India from 2014-15 to 2024-25 in the table 2 reveals that the area under coconut cultivation exhibited a significant positive growth rate of 0.97 percent per annum (p = 0.0011, R² = 0.7126), indicating a steady expansion in the coconut cultivation. The coconut production showed a negative CAGR of -0.96%, although this decline was statistically non-significant (p = 0.1385, R² = 0.227), reflecting fluctuations without a clear downward trend in output. The productivity experienced a significant decrease of -1.91% per year (p = 0.0110, R² = 0.52), signaling a decline in yield per hectare despite increased cultivation area. These findings suggest that while coconut farming area is expanding in India, overall production and productivity are facing challenges. The decline in productivity are the attributed to factors such as aging plantations, pest and disease incidence and adverse climatic impacts, These results align with recent studies done by Samsudin et al 2025 [4] and Shine Raju Kappil indicating that the growth in India's coconut sector is constrained by yield stagnation, even as the crop remains vital to rural livelihoods and the economy, particularly in southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, which dominate production.

Instability trend in coconut production in world and India

The analysis of instability using Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Cuddy-Della Valle's Instability Index (CDVI) provides insights into the stability of coconut area, production, and productivity both globally and in India. The CV measures relative variability, while the CDVI adjusts this variability by accounting for trend strength (R²) to classify instability levels as low, medium, or high. In the table 3 it indicate that the world exhibits relatively stable coconut cultivation with lower CV values, area (0.84), production (1.46), and productivity (0.96). These low CVs suggest minimal year-to-year fluctuations globally, the results align with Lekshmi et al., 2025 [5] for moderate global growth and relatively stable production conditions. In India, the CVs are markedly higher area (2.01), production (6.01), and productivity (6.20) implying greater volatility, especially in production and productivity compared to the world average. Such higher instability in India aligns with studies attributing variability to factors like climatic changes, pest outbreaks, and aging plantations, which cause production and yield fluctuations despite area expansion (Chavan et al., 2023; Maruthi et al., 2019) [1,8] . The table.5 depicts the export value of Indian coconut products excluding coir has exhibited a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.98 percent during the period from 2014-15 to 2024-25, showing the sector's strong export performance. However, the instability index of 14.81 indicates moderate variability in the export values year-to-year. These fluctuations are due to global market dynamics, climatic factors affecting production, and changing demand patterns for coconut products in international markets. This pattern aligns with Chavan et al. (2023) [1] , who demonstrated positive growth in India's coconut product exports over a 15-year period accompanied by moderate instability across the categories of coconut oil, desiccated coconut, and fresh coconut exports. Maruthi et al. (2019) [8] , highlighting that production fluctuations influenced export performance, and that regional supply conditions are crucial for stabilizing India's export metrics. The linear trend graph of export value of coconut products excluding coir from India shows in fig1 has a general upward trajectory over the years 2014-15 to 2024-25. This indicates a steady and consistent increase in export earnings from coconut products, reflecting growing international demand and India's improved capacity to supply diverse coconut products. The graph illustrates temporary fluctuations or dips but maintains a positive slope, highlighting sustained growth despite short-term market volatilities. This trend aligns with historical export data showing India's export value growing from about Rs. 1312 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 4349 crore in 2024-25, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 11.98 percent. The linear increase asserts the expanding role of value-added products such as activated carbon, coconut oil, and desiccated coconut in global markets. These findings in align with finds of Umesha and Tulasimala (2016) [7] highlighted the steady growth in export quantity and value of coconut and coconut oil from India, driven by increased productivity and emerging markets.

Conclusion

The coconut industry in India remains a vital agricultural sector contributing significantly to the rural economy, food security, and national GDP. Despite global coconut cultivation showing stagnant trends in area, production, and productivity over the last decade, India has demonstrated steady growth in cultivated area but faces challenges of declining production and yield, mainly due to aging plantations, pest pressures, and climate variability. India's coconut sector exhibits higher instability compared to the global scenario, highlighting the need for focused interventions to enhance yield stability. The export performance of Indian coconut products, excluding coir, has shown strong and consistent growth, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 12 percent over the last decade. Value-added products like activated carbon, refined coconut oil, and desiccated coconut have significantly contributed to export earnings and diversification. Despite moderate yearto-year fluctuations, the overall export value maintains a positive linear trend, reflecting increasing global demand and India's rising competitiveness in international markets.

Annexure-I Area, production and productivity of coconut in world 2023

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