Growth dynamics of vegetable cultivation in Chhattisgarh: A compound annual growth rate analysis of tomato, potato and brinjal across selected districts (2013-14 to 2023-24)

Introduction

Vegetables occupy a central place in India's agricultural economy, contributing approximately 10 per cent of total agricultural output value and accounting for nearly 46 per cent of the country's horticultural area (NHB, 2023). Beyond their economic significance, vegetables are critical sources of micronutrients and dietary diversity, particularly for rural and low-income households. In the context of Indian smallholder agriculture, vegetable cultivation also serves as a relatively short-duration, high-value enterprise that can meaningfully augment farm incomes and reduce livelihood vulnerability (Birthal et al., 2015). In states where food production has historically been concentrated in a single staple crop, vegetable horticulture has gained increasing policy attention as a vehicle for agricultural diversification. Chhattisgarh, often characterised as a rice-dominant agrarian economy, exemplifies this transition. With approximately 4.8 million hectares under cultivation within a total geographical area of 13.5 million hectares, the state's horticulture sector has expanded considerably over the past decade, supported through the National Horticulture Mission and Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana. Among vegetables, tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), potato (Solanum tuberosum), and brinjal (Solanum melongena) are the most widely cultivated crops, collectively accounting for a substantial share of the state's vegetable area, production, and marketed surplus (Directorate of Horticulture and Farm Forestry, GoC, 2023). The growth performance of India's vegetable sector has been examined at the national and major-state levels by several scholars. Chand and Raju (2009) [1] documented that output growth in Indian vegetables has been predominantly extensification-driven, with area expansion outpacing productivity gains. Kumar et al. (2015) [3] reinforced this www.extensionjournal.com finding, noting persistent yield stagnation across key vegetable crops despite rising input use. More recent statelevel studies including those for Maharashtra (Naik and Jain, 2018) [5] , Andhra Pradesh (Reddy et al., 2019) [10] , and Madhya Pradesh (Sharma et al., 2020) [11] have employed compound annual growth rate (CAGR) frameworks to assess trends in area, production, and productivity, offering actionable insights for regional policy. Chhattisgarh, however, remains conspicuously underrepresented in this literature. More critically, even where state-level estimates exist, sub-state disaggregation is rarely attempted, which conceals the spatial heterogeneity in growth performance that is essential for targeted intervention planning. This study addresses that gap. Using secondary time-series data for the period 2013-14 to 2023-24, CAGR analysis was employed to examine growth trends in area, production, and productivity of tomato, potato, and brinjal at both the state level and in three major vegetable-producing districts Raipur, Durg, and Bilaspur located within the Chhattisgarh Plains agro-climatic zone. The specific objectives of the study are: (i) to estimate state-and district-level CAGRs for area, production, and productivity of the three selected crops; (ii) to identify whether output growth has been driven primarily by area expansion or productivity improvement; and (iii) to derive evidence-based implications for horticultural development planning in Chhattisgarh. By providing district-disaggregated growth estimates for a recent eleven-year window, the study offers an empirical foundation for reorienting vegetable development policy from area-subsidy-driven expansion towards productivityled intensification.

Materials and Methods

Data source and study period

The study is based on secondary time-series data covering area (thousand hectares), production (thousand metric tonnes), and productivity (metric tonnes per hectare) of tomato, potato, and brinjal in Chhattisgarh over the period 2013-14 to 2023-24. Data were sourced from official publications of the Directorate of Horticulture and Farm Forestry, Government of Chhattisgarh, and district-wise horticultural statistics compiled by the State Agriculture Department. The eleven-year study period was selected to capture medium-term growth trends and account for recent structural disruptions in vegetable cultivation. All data were cross-validated against Horticulture Statistics at a Glance (Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, GoI) to ensure internal consistency.

Study area

Chhattisgarh, a central Indian state covering approximately 1, 35,192 sq. km, encompasses diverse agro-ecological settings from the northern Surguja uplands to the fertile Chhattisgarh Plains and the forested Bastar Plateau in the south. District-level analysis was restricted to Raipur, Durg, and Bilaspur, all located within the Chhattisgarh Plains Agro-climatic zone, which is characterised by fertile alluvial Soils and intensive vegetable cultivation. These districts were selected for their prominence as major vegetableproducing centres and their agro-climatic representativeness of the plains region. Raipur exemplifies peri-urban horticulture; Durg represents the agriculturally advanced central plains; and Bilaspur reflects the cultivation dynamics of the northern belt.

Analytical framework

Growth dynamics were examined using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), estimated by fitting a semilogarithmic trend model of the form:

Log Y = log a + t log b

Where Y is the dependent variable (area, production, or productivity), t is the time trend, a is the intercept, and b is the slope coefficient. CAGR was derived as:

The statistical significance of regression coefficients was assessed using the t-test, with significance reported at the 1% (***), 5% (**), and 10% (*) levels; non-significant estimates are denoted 'ns'. Time-series plots were examined for structural discontinuities, and any identified breaks were contextualised with reference to climatic, policy, or market events over the study period. All computations, regression estimations, and graphical outputs were performed using R statistical software (version 4.3.x).

Results and discussion

The CAGR estimates for area, production and productivity of tomato, potato and brinjal at the state and district levels are presented in Tables 1 to 12 and summarised in Table 13. The analysis proceeds from aggregate state-level dynamics to district-level heterogeneity across Raipur, Durg and Bilaspur.

State-level growth performance 3.1.1 Tomato

Tomato area in Chhattisgarh expanded from 50.375 to 61.215 thousand hectares over the study period, while production rose from 814.2 to 1,035.3 thousand metric tonnes, having peaked at 1,182.7 thousand metric tonnes in 2019-20. Productivity varied narrowly within 16.16 to 18.78 MT/ha. The CAGRs of 1.97 per cent for area and 2.43 per cent for production (both significant at 5 per cent), against a modest productivity gain of only 0.46 per cent (significant at 10 per cent), confirm that growth was overwhelmingly area-driven (Table 1). This extensification pattern corroborates findings from comparable studies in other www.extensionjournal.com Indian states (Kumar et al., 2015; Naik & Jain, 2018) [3,5] , where areal expansion has consistently outpaced yield improvement in tomato cultivation. [10] for structurally vulnerable crops facing input cost pressures and inadequate market infrastructure. www.extensionjournal.com [11] in the context of solanaceous vegetables.

Raipur district

In Raipur, tomato area expanded to a peak of 4.58 thousand hectares in 2018-19 before declining sharply to 2.664 thousand hectares by 2023-24, with production following a similar arc (Table 4). CAGRs of -2.67 per cent for area and -1.76 per cent for production (significant at 5 and 10 per cent respectively), against an insignificant productivity change, reflect farmer disengagement attributable to urbanisation-induced land pressure, price volatility and inadequate cold-chain infrastructure. In stark contrast, potato experienced near-total withdrawal (Table 5): area collapsed from 3.887 to 0.680 thousand hectares and production from 67.232 to 11.475 thousand metric tonnes, yielding CAGRs of -10.94 per cent and -9.98 per cent (both significant at 1 per cent). Critically, yields remained stable throughout (15.62-17.29 MT/ha), suggesting a behaviouraleconomic rather than technological contraction farmers obtaining reasonable yields nonetheless exiting in favour of more remunerative alternatives. Brinjal, however, constituted the lone case of productivity-led growth in the study (Table 6): area was broadly stable (CAGR -0.38 per cent, non-significant), yet productivity grew at a statistically significant 0.74 per cent per annum (5 per cent level), demonstrating that yield-enhancing pathways are achievable even at modest tempos.

Durg district

Durg exhibits internally heterogeneous performance across the three crops. Tomato area registered a highly significant CAGR of 8.92 per cent (Table 7), driven by a structural break in 2016-17 when cultivated area nearly doubled from 4.723 to 9.5 thousand hectares and production leapt from 124.5 to 190.0 thousand metric tonnes. However, this rapid areal expansion was accompanied by a significant productivity decline of -2.11 per cent per annum (5 per cent level), as post-expansion yields stabilised at 20.00 MT/ha against a pre-expansion level exceeding 26 MT/ha. This yield dilution consistent with the inclusion of belowaverage-yield fields and less experienced cultivators echoes findings from Mathur and Singh (2017) [4] for other vegetable crops experiencing rapid area mobilisation. Potato in Durg followed a contractionary path, with area declining from 1.422 to 0.940 thousand hectares and production from 35.55 to 23.4 thousand metric tonnes following an early-period withdrawal, both stabilising at reduced levels thereafter (Table 8). CAGRs of -4.05 per cent and -3.98 per cent (significant at 5 per cent) for area and production, alongside a negligible productivity change, indicate institutional and market-side constraints rather than technological failure. By contrast, brinjal recorded healthy positive growth with area and production CAGRs of 2.47 and 2.32 per cent respectively (both significant at 1 per cent), consolidating at a yield plateau of approximately 25.22 MT/ha the highest among all crop-district combinations (Table 9). The Durg pattern thus illustrates two concurrent paradoxes: rapid area-led growth accompanied by yield dilution in tomato, and stable but ceilinged growth in brinjal. www.extensionjournal.com

Bilaspur district

Bilaspur's vegetable economy experienced the most dramatic disruption of the three districts, with a pronounced structural break in 2020-21 affecting all three crops. Prior to this break, tomato area and production grew moderately; in 2020-21, area was nearly halved to 3.523 thousand hectares and production collapsed to 49.451 thousand metric tonnes, both remaining suppressed through 2023-24 (Table 10). CAGRs of -7.10 per cent for area and -5.90 per cent for production (both significant at 1 per cent) are accompanied, counter-intuitively, by a 1.27 per cent productivity gain (significant at 5 per cent). This pattern is consistent with selection-driven intensification: the exit of less efficient growers concentrated cultivation among more productive farmers, producing an inadvertent yield improvement through structural attrition.

Potato in Bilaspur displayed a parallel trajectory but without the compensating yield improvement (Table 11): CAGRs of -4.04 per cent for area and -4.68 per cent for production (both highly significant at 1 per cent), with a non-significant productivity decline of -0.66 per cent. The absence of yield recovery distinguishes this from the tomato case, pointing to a more comprehensive cultivator exit without any selectionefficiency dividend. Brinjal in Bilaspur replicated the tomato pattern, with area collapsing from 1.956 to 0.812 thousand hectares post-2020-21 and production halving, yet productivity improving from approximately 12.54 to 15.60 MT/ha (CAGR of 2.06 per cent, significant at 5 per cent) (Table 12). The concentration of brinjal cultivation among fewer, more efficient producers raises equity considerations regarding smallholder inclusion and rural livelihoods.

Conclusion and suggestions

This study examined growth dynamics in the cultivation of tomato, potato, and brinjal across Chhattisgarh and three of its principal vegetable-producing districts Raipur, Durg, and Bilaspur over the period 2013-14 to 2023-24 using CAGR analysis. The findings reveal that output growth at the state level has been driven predominantly by area expansion rather than productivity improvement, a pattern welldocumented in the broader Indian vegetable agriculture literature (Chand and Raju, 2009; Kumar et al., 2015) [1,3] . Across most crop-district combinations, area and production CAGRs were statistically significant while productivity growth remained weak or insignificant, indicating that extensification continues to be the primary growth mechanism in the absence of sustained technological and institutional support. Beneath the state aggregate, pronounced spatial heterogeneity is evident. Durg recorded significant areal expansion in tomato and brinjal, yet without commensurate agronomic support, this expansion has been accompanied by yield stagnation a pattern consistent with the dilution effects of rapid extensification. In contrast, Raipur and Bilaspur experienced contraction in area and production across most crops. In Raipur, potato yields remained technically stable despite cultivator exit, suggesting that the binding constraint is economic rather than agronomic specifically, inadequate market infrastructure and poor post-harvest incentives. In Bilaspur, a marked decline in cultivated area across all three crops coincided with yield stability or modest improvement, indicative of selective producer exit under external market pressure rather than systemic agronomic failure. These divergent trajectories underscore the limitations of uniform, state-wide horticultural policy and the necessity of spatially differentiated interventions. Several policy directions follow from these findings. District-specific horticultural development plans should be prioritised over aggregate state-level approaches. Contraction-affected districts require diagnostic assessments www.extensionjournal.com of the drivers of area withdrawal and targeted responses including price-assurance mechanisms, cold-chain investment, and strengthened market linkages to restore cultivator confidence. In expansion-prone districts such as Durg, productivity-enhancement support must accompany area mobilisation to prevent yield dilution. More broadly, post-harvest infrastructure and market integration deserve greater policy priority: the exit of potato cultivators from Raipur and Durg despite viable yields illustrates that economic disincentives, rather than agronomic constraints, are frequently the proximate cause of sectoral retreat. Investment in cold storage, rural processing facilities, Farmer Producer Organisations, and e-trading platforms can improve market access and reduce income volatility. For high-volatility crops such as tomato, risk management instruments including expanded crop insurance coverage and real-time market price advisories are essential complements to production-side interventions. Over the longer term, a strategic reorientation from input-subsidised area expansion toward productivity-led intensification, supported by investment in improved varieties, integrated nutrient management, and extension capacity, is necessary for sustainable vegetable sector development in Chhattisgarh. Future research should investigate the determinants of interdistrict productivity variation through econometric decomposition, examining the roles of irrigation access, input quality, market proximity, and extension contact intensity. Household-level analysis of cultivator decisionmaking, particularly regarding area withdrawal in Raipur and Bilaspur, would complement the aggregate perspective adopted here. Value-chain and post-harvest loss assessments for the three focal crops would further illuminate the structural constraints that aggregate growth estimates necessarily obscure.

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