Economic assessment of a five-year reproductive control strategy for repeat breeding in Bali cattle

Introduction

The Indonesian government is actively intensifying efforts to boost national meat production to achieve food self-sufficiency, as mandated by the Ministry of Agriculture Decree No. 484/KPTS/RC.020/M/8/2021. Despite these regulatory frameworks, the country experienced a steady increase in beef imports from 2014 to 2022 (Kementan, 2022). This persistent reliance on foreign markets stems from a widening gap between domestic beef production capacity and surging public consumption (Ariningsih, 2014) [1] . If this import dependency continues to escalate, national food security risks being dominated by foreign commodities rather than domestic products, which directly threatens the livelihoods of local smallholder farmers (Marhendra et al., 2014) [7] . Currently, domestic beef production fails to meet minimum community demands, largely due to deep-seated bottlenecks in livestock reproductive management (Sawo, 2017) [11] . As an indigenous breed, Bali cattle (Bos javanicus) play a pivotal role in sustaining Indonesia's beef supply. These cattle are characteristically known for high reproductive efficiency, highlighted by a relatively short calving interval of approximately one year (Pemayun et al., 2014) [8] . However, achieving optimal population growth remains hindered by prevalent reproductive disorders (Pemayun et al., 2020) [9] , among which repeat breeding (RB) is a major contributor to declining reproductive efficiency (Juliana et al., 2015; Suputra et al., 2023) [6,13] . Repeat breeding is a complex, multifactorial syndrome influenced by various physiological and environmental factors (Yusuf et al., 2010) [14] , with global prevalence rates fluctuating widely between 5.5% and 33.3% (Gustafsson & Emanuelsson, 2002) [5] . This reproductive anomaly severely undermines livestock productivity, translating into substantial financial strains for farmers. The economic drain associated with RB includes prolonged feeding periods, repeated artificial insemination costs, and escalating veterinary expenses, all of which directly erode farmers' net income (Diro et al., 2021) [4] . The macroeconomic impact of such reproductive failures can be catastrophic; for instance, annual losses due to reproductive disorders in the Indian states of Assam and Bihar reached USD 59 million and USD 453.9 million, respectively, across just 534 farming units (Deka et al., 2021) [3] . Addressing the root causes of RB requires a multifaceted approach. The initial step demands intensive farmer education and improved communication with local animal health services. Subsequent clinical interventions depend on the specific etiology; however, since RB is frequently triggered by ovarian hypofunction or delayed ovulation, hormonal therapy is widely adopted. This therapeutic strategy has proven highly effective, yielding a 67% success rate in resolving repeat breeding cases (Suputra et al., 2023) [13] . In Indonesia, comprehensive economic analyses regarding the management of reproductive disorders in Bali cattle remain scarce. Nevertheless, RB cases remain widespread and continue to stagnate livestock population dynamics in Bali Province. Bangli Regency represents one of the major centers for Bali cattle production in the province. Although most cattle here are managed under extensive farming systems, reproductive issues are prominent. Local animal health authorities estimate that RB accounts for approximately 10% of all reproductive disorders in the region (Dinas Pertanian, personal communication, 2024). Consequently, this study aims to estimate the potential economic losses caused by repeat breeding in Bali cattle under extensive management systems. Furthermore, this research evaluates and compares the economic viability of a structured intervention program against a non-intervention baseline over a five-year projection.

Materials and Methods

Research design and study site

An observational study was conducted from April to July 2024 in Bangli Regency, Bali Province. Epidemiological and economic data regarding the prevalence of repeat breeding (RB) in Bali cattle (Bos javanicus), alongside the operational costs required for intervention programs, were primarysourced through structured interviews. Stakeholders interviewed included cattle traders, smallholder farmers, field veterinarians, and institutional animal health officers from the local Department of Agriculture, Food Security, and Fisheries (Dinas Pertanian, Ketahanan Pangan dan Perikanan). To evaluate the baseline financial impacts of RB, calf market values were determined through targeted surveys involving Bali cattle traders at the Kayuambua animal market and local farmers. Epidemiological metrics for RB were validated by field veterinary officers. Field-derived data were systematically cataloged into an electronic spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel). For each parameter, minimum, maximum, and mean values were calculated, with the mean values serving as the deterministic baseline for economic modeling. A Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) framework was employed to assess the economic viability of a structured control strategy targeting RB over a five-year analytical horizon, with 2024 designated as the baseline year (T 0 ). The total Bali cattle population in Bangli Regency was derived from the 2022 census data (N=53,650), within which the baseline population of productive breeding females was established at 4,455 heads. All monetary metrics were calculated in Indonesian Rupiah (IDR). Future cash flows were discounted using a social discount rate of 5% to compute the Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), consistent with veterinary economic standards (Singh et al., 2018) [12] .

Production parameters and economic input modeling

The economic losses incurred by farmers due to RB are highly contingent upon the reproductive efficiency of the herd. In this study, the regional prevalence of RB was modeled based on the reported ranges by Gustafsson and Emanuelsson (2002) [5] , spanning from 5.5% to 33.3%. In accordance with Sari et al. (2020) [10] , optimal reproductive performance for an adult female Bali cow is operationally defined as the capacity to produce one calf annually (Calving Interval ≈12months). Consequently, the economic penalty of reproductive failure induced by RB was quantified using the opportunity cost of lost calf production as the reference endpoint. The complete input parameters utilized in the CBA framework are detailed in Table 1.

Data analysis and mathematical modelling 2.3.1. Estimation of baseline economic losses

Direct economic losses due to RB were calculated as a function of prevalence, the susceptible breeding female population, and the average economic value of a calf. Variable maintenance inputs, such as supplementary feed costs and informal household labor, were excluded from the model because the regional production system relies predominantly on extensive grazing or backyard smallholder management, making standardized cost estimations highly volatile. The annual economic loss (L) was calculated using the following deterministic formula:

L=P×N×H

Where: L = Total estimated annual economic loss from repeat breeding cases in Bali cattle (IDR/year) P = Prevalence of repeat breeding within the population (%) N = Total population of sexually mature, reproductive female Bali cattle in the study area H = Average market price of a healthy weaned calf (IDR/head)

Cost-benefit and comparative scenario analysis

The cumulative present value of benefits (PVB) and costs (PVC) associated with the implementation of the therapeutic control strategy was projected over a 5-year timeline. To test the economic feasibility of the intervention, the Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) were evaluated using standard financial formulas:

Where Bt represents the financial benefits at year t, Ct represents the intervention costs at year t, and r denotes the discount rate (5%). A comparative descriptive analysis was subsequently executed to evaluate the economic trajectory of the cattle population under two distinct policy scenarios: (i) a non-intervention baseline ("counterfactual scenario") versus (ii) a structured veterinary handling program ("intervention scenario").

Sensitivity analysis

Given the structural constraints of field data availability, the baseline demographic and epidemiological parameters (cattle population and baseline RB prevalence) were assumed to remain stationary over the 5-year evaluation period. While the primary economic valuation was established on mean inputs, a deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the robustness of the model. This was achieved by systematically substituting the baseline RB prevalence with its minimum (5.5%) and maximum (33.3%) bounds to evaluate the elasticity and variance of the resulting NPV and BCR estimates.

Results

Baseline economic losses from repeat breeding

Based on a baseline population of 864 reproductive female Bali cattle diagnosed with repeat breeding (RB), the total projected economic loss in Bangli Regency in the absence of an intervention program was estimated at IDR 33,672,953,111 over a five-year period. This macroeconomic drain corresponds to a constant annual opportunity loss of IDR 5,612,158,852, reflecting the unrealized market value of potential calf production (Table 2). 3). Conversely, negative financial yields were recorded during the initial investment phases (T 0 and T 1 ) and the final year (T 5 ), where cash outflows outpaced discounted benefits (Table 5). Aggregating these financial streams yielded a highly favorable Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 4.59.

Scenario comparison: non-intervention vs. programmatic control

The economic dividends of the veterinary intervention program are directly linked to clinical success rates. Out of the 864 chronically subfertile cows treated, the active pool of repeat breeders decreased progressively to just 4 cases by Year 5 (T 5 / 2029), effectively yielding a cumulative output of 854 calves over the project cycle (Table 6). 7).

Discussion

Quantifying the precise economic impacts of reproductive disorders in livestock production systems presents a notorious methodological challenge due to the multi-layered nature of direct and indirect financial variables. In the present study, the estimated baseline economic loss due to repeat breeding (RB) in Bali cattle within Bangli Regency was determined to be IDR 5,612,158,852 annually. Given that this evaluation was structurally confined to a single regency, the aggregate macroeconomic drain at the provincial or national tier is arguably far more severe. For context, reproductive failures in production herds globally incur staggering financial penalties. Deka et al. (2021) [3] projected that reproductive disorders in the Assam region of India generated an annual economic deficit of USD 59 million, driven primarily by declines in milk yields, cumulative veterinary therapeutic costs, and the absolute loss of aborted calves. While the primary loss commodity in dairy systems centers on milk production, the economic threat in beef-oriented Bali cattle systems rests heavily on the elongation of the calving interval, which directly compromises the annual output of weaned calves. However, the wide market range (IDR 4,000,000 to IDR 13,000,000) underscores the vulnerability of smallholder profit margins to seasonal volatility, supply-demand shifts at the Kayuambua animal market, and the phenotypic quality of the stock. Conversely, the projected program cost (PVC: IDR 1,072,550,547) appeared highly conservative relative to the high epidemiological recovery rate achieved. This expenditure effectively capitalized not only direct clinical input, such as Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone (GnRH) regimens, veterinary field allowances, and sanitary consumables, but also critical institutional capacity building. Funding decentralized educational extensions and information-education-communication (IEC) campaigns for smallholder communities at the sub-district level is vital. This educational bridge optimizes early disorder detection, thereby minimizing the latent period before professional veterinary notification. The resulting Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 4.59 implies that every unit of monetary capital invested in the RB control program returns more than a fourfold dividend. This efficiency compares favorably with long-term veterinary economic frameworks. For instance, Singh et al. (2018) [12] reported a BCR range of 3.2 to 10.6 across a 20-year multitreatment reproductive management project in dairy cattle. Although our five-year evaluation window limits the maximum compounding of long-term financial benefits as established by Ascott and Elizabeth (2006) [2] , who noted that shorter project lifespans systematically truncate the cumulative curve of positive cash flows, the program still demonstrated undeniable financial self-sufficiency within 60 months. Beyond immediate monetary liquidity, the implementation of this fertility program drives critical indirect demographic benefits for the regional herd structure. The clinical resolution of chronic repeat breeders acts as a direct counter-measure against the premature culling and subsequent slaughter of productive female cows. By successfully restoring optimal conception rates, the model demonstrated that the slaughter of 1,295 productive female Bali cattle could be actively prevented over five years, significantly expanding the localized breeding nucleus (Figure 1). If the status quo of non-intervention remains unaddressed, the regional cattle population faces an artificial contraction. The systemic failure to treat RB ensures an annual opportunity loss of IDR 5,612,158,852, culminating in a cumulative fiveyear macroeconomic deficit of IDR 33,672,953,111. Over time, the unmitigated compounding of repeat breeding cases will cause a downward spiral in local herd dynamics due to low reproductive replacement rates. Consequently, treating repeat breeding is not merely a localized animal welfare or farm-level profitability concern; it is a critical epidemiological and economic requirement. Without structured veterinary interventions, Indonesia's broader strategic mandate for national beef self-sufficiency and sustainable food security will remain structurally unachievable.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that repeat breeding (RB) poses a severe economic threat to Bali cattle production in Bangli Regency, incurring an annual baseline loss of IDR 5.61 billion and projecting a cumulative five-year counterfactual deficit of IDR 33.67 billion. However, the deployment of a structured five-year reproductive control program centered on hormonal therapy offers a highly viable solution. Financial modeling confirms the program's robust economic feasibility, yielding a Net Present Value (NPV) of IDR 3.85 billion, a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 4.59, and generating a total economic dividend of IDR 19.68 billion. Beyond direct monetary returns, the clinical resolution of RB cases significantly stabilizes regional herd dynamics by increasing cumulative calf births and preventing the premature culling of productive females. Ultimately, these findings underscore that transitioning from a passive nonintervention status quo to an active veterinary handling framework is highly justified. To optimize these economic and demographic rewards, it is recommended that local livestock authorities implement decentralized institutional policies, specifically by expanding smallholder access to hormonal therapeutic interventions and intensifying technical capacity building for field inseminators. Structured reproductive management at the regional level is a critical prerequisite to accelerating regional livestock growth and supporting Indonesia's broader strategic mandate for national beef self-sufficiency.

Acknowledgement

AcknowledgmentThis research was conducted as a collaborative initiative between the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Udayana University, and the Department of Agriculture, Food Security, and Fisheries of Bangli Regency, Bali, Indonesia. The study was designed to support local community development and aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically contributing to SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG 4 (Quality Education), and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

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