Trend analysis of area under major crops in Baghpat District of Western Uttar Pradesh: An empirical study

Introduction

Sugarcane is one of the most important commercial crops in India and plays a significant role in the agricultural economy by providing livelihood support to millions of farmers and serving as a major raw material for the sugar industry. It is a versatile crop with multiple uses, including the production of sugar, jaggery, khandsari, fodder, and various by-products such as molasses, bagasse, and press mud. In recent years, sugarcane has also emerged as an important source of renewable energy through the production of bioethanol and other bio-based products, thereby contributing to the country's energy security and sustainable development. India is the second-largest producer of sugarcane in the world and occupies a prominent position in the global sugar economy. During 2023-24, sugarcane was cultivated on 5.74 million hectares with a total production of 453.16 million tonnes. Among the major sugarcaneproducing states, Uttar Pradesh ranked first with 2.65 million hectares under cultivation and a production of 215.81 million tonnes. Maharashtra occupied the second position with 1.44 million hectares and a production of 112.09 million tonnes, followed by Karnataka with 0.54 million hectares and 41.81 million tonnes of production (DA&FW, 2024). The crop continues to be a major source of income for farmers and an important contributor to rural employment generation. Within Uttar Pradesh, sugarcane cultivation is concentrated in the western and central regions of the state. Major sugarcane-producing districts include Kheri, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Sitapur, Saharanpur, Meerut, Bareilly, Gonda, Amroha, Baghpat, Pilibhit, Kushinagar, Shamli, Bulandshahr, Moradabad, Balrampur, Basti, Hapur, Shahjahanpur, and Hardoi (Department of Agriculture, U.P., 2022) [2] . Among these districts, Kheri recorded the largest area under sugarcane cultivation (239,090 ha), followed by Bijnor (201,591 ha) and Muzaffarnagar (72,164 ha). Similarly, Kheri registered the highest sugarcane production (20.48 million tonnes), followed by Bijnor (17.85 million tonnes) and Muzaffarnagar (16.06 million tonnes). The highest productivity was recorded in Shamli district (1,014.16 quintals per hectare), followed by Muzaffarnagar (933.08 quintals per hectare). The environment and its perception shape the growth and development of various crops in different regions. In areas with less physical diversity, farming practices tend to be more uniform. For example, farmers in drought-prone Rajasthan grow bajra (bulrush millet), while rice is the main crop in Assam's Brahmaputra basin. Cotton is grown in the regur (black earth) soils of Maharashtra and Gujarat, while wheat, rice, and sugarcane thrive in the loamy soils of western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab. Land ownership, tenure, holding size, and field size all influence agricultural practices in a region. Sugarcane occupies a unique position in the cropping systems of Western Uttar Pradesh. It is cultivated under diverse cropping patterns, either as a sole crop or in association with companion crops such as wheat and mustard. These systems play a vital role in improving land-use efficiency, cropping intensity, employment generation, and farm income. The integration of sugarcane with other crops enables farmers to diversify their production, reduce risks associated with monocropping, and ensure a more stable flow of income throughout the year. Consequently, sugarcane-based cropping systems have become an important component of the region's agricultural production system. Baghpat district is one of the leading sugarcane-producing districts of Western Uttar Pradesh, where sugarcane occupies a dominant position in the cropping pattern and contributes significantly to the agricultural economy. The district possesses favourable agro-climatic conditions, fertile alluvial soils, and adequate irrigation facilities that support large-scale cultivation of sugarcane. According to the Directorate of Agricultural Statistics and Economics, during 2022-23, sugarcane was cultivated on 85.491 thousand hectares, producing 7,643 thousand tonnes with a productivity of 894.01 quintals per hectare. In comparison, wheat occupied 54.815 thousand hectares, rice 4.807 thousand hectares, oilseeds 3.502 thousand hectares, and pulses 1.737 thousand hectares. These figures clearly demonstrate the predominance of sugarcane over other crops in the district. However, the relative significance of different crops in a region is not fixed and tends to change over time due to factors like technological advancements, market conditions, policy support, availability of resources, and farmers' preferences. Analyzing changes in the area under different crops provides useful insights into shifts in cropping patterns and the evolving structure of agriculture.

Materials and Methods

Study Area and Sampling Design

The present study was conducted in Baghpat district of Western Uttar Pradesh, a region well known for its intensive sugarcane cultivation and sugarcane-based cropping systems. Baghpat district was purposively selected owing to its substantial area under sugarcane cultivation and its importance in the agricultural economy of the region. For the collection of primary data under the broader thesis investigation, two blocks, namely Binauli and Baraut, were purposively selected from the six blocks of the district on the basis of their larger area under sugarcane cultivation. Subsequently, three villages from each selected block were chosen randomly. The selected villages included Jiwana-Goliyan, Bamnauli, and Begmabad Garhi from Binauli block and Bijrol, Malakpur-Loyan, and Barwala from Baraut block. From each village, 30 farmers cultivating sugarcane on more than 80 per cent of their operational holdings were selected, resulting in a total sample of 180 respondents. The selected farmers were categorized into four operational landholding groups, namely marginal (below 1.0 ha), small (1.0-2.0 ha), medium (2.0-4.0 ha), and large (above 4.0 ha) farmers.

Data Collection

The study was based on both primary and secondary data. Primary data were collected during the agricultural year 2024-25 through personal interviews using a pre-tested and structured schedule. Information relating to socio-economic characteristics, landholding pattern, and cropping systems of the sample farmers was collected. For the trend analysis, secondary data on area under major crops, namely sugarcane, wheat, rice, oilseeds, and pulses, were collected for the period 2001-02 to 2022-23. The data were obtained from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Uttar Pradesh, through the UPDES portal, the Unified Portal for Agricultural Statistics (UPAg), district agricultural offices, and other relevant published sources.

Analytical Techniques

Descriptive statistical tools such as averages, percentages, and frequency distributions were used to analyse the socio-economic characteristics of the sample farmers and the distribution of cropping systems. To examine the trend in area under major crops in Baghpat district, a simple linear trend model was employed using the least squares method.

Coefficient of Determination (R²)

The goodness of fit of the trend equation was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R²), which measures the proportion of variation in crop area explained by the time trend. The value of R² ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a better fit of the model.

Growth Rate Estimation

The annual growth rate in area under major crops was estimated using the following expression:

Where: • b = slope of trend line • Ȳ = mean value of crop area

Results and Discussion

Trend Analysis of Area under Major Crops in Baghpat District

The trend analysis based on the linear regression model revealed significant variations in the area under major crops in Baghpat district during the period 2001-02 to 2022-23. Table 1 shows the area (ha) of major crops; Sugarcane, Wheat, Rice, Oilseeds and Pulses in the Baghpat district from 2001-02 to 2022-23. The trend in area under major crops in Baghpat district was analyzed using a simple linear regression model (linear trend model) based on the least squares method. explains a significant portion of the variation. The estimated growth rate of sugarcane area (0.76 percent per annum) further confirms its consistent expansion. This increasing trend can be attributed to several factors, including assured market through nearby sugar mills, favorable pricing policies, and higher economic returns compared to cereal crops. The stability and profitability associated with sugarcane cultivation have made it a preferred choice among farmers in the district. The table indicates a strong increasing trend in the area under oilseed crops, with a slope value of 104.88. The relatively high R² value (0.61) indicate that the model fits the data well. The growth in oilseed area may be linked to rising demand for edible oils, increased awareness regarding crop diversification, and government initiatives promoting oilseed cultivation.

Total Oilseeds

Total Pulses

In contrast to other crops, pulses exhibited only a slight increasing trend, with a relatively low slope value (b = 23.56).

The R² value (0.096) is quite low, indicating that the model explains only a small fraction of the variation in pulse area. This table indicates that pulse cultivation in the district is relatively unstable and is influenced by external factors such as fluctuations in rainfall, soil fertility conditions, and price volatility. The limited increase in pulse area may also reflect the lower economic returns compared to competing crops, resulting in less emphasis on pulse cultivation. The growth rate analysis indicates that wheat recorded a negative growth per annum (-0.22%), showing a decline in its area over time. In contrast, rice (2.75%), sugarcane (0.76%), oilseeds (5.52%), and pulses (1.57%) exhibited positive growth trends. Among these, oilseeds recorded the highest growth, indicating a rapid increase in their cultivation. Overall, the pattern reflects a shift towards more profitable crops, while wheat is gradually losing its area in the cropping system.

The findings indicate a shift in cropping pattern in Baghpat district over the study period. The declining trend in wheat area and the increasing trends in sugarcane and oilseeds reflect a movement towards more profitable and market-oriented crops. Sugarcane has become a dominant crop due to its better economic returns and assured market, while oilseeds have shown the highest growth, reflecting rising demand and diversification. Rice has maintained a moderate growth, indicating its continued importance in the cropping system. In contrast, pulses have shown only a slight and unstable increase, highlighting the need for policy support to promote their cultivation for nutritional security and soil health. The growth rates indicate a decline in wheat area (-0.22%), while rice (2.75%), sugarcane (0.76%), oilseeds (5.52%), and pulses (1.57%) showed increasing trends, with oilseeds recording the highest growth. Overall, the observed trends reflect that farmers' decisions are mainly influenced by profitability, market access, and resource availability, leading to gradual changes in the agricultural system in the study area.

Conclusion

The study concludes that the cropping pattern of Baghpat district has undergone noticeable changes during the period 2001-02 to 2022-23. The area under wheat showed a declining trend, whereas sugarcane, rice, oilseeds and pulses exhibited positive trends. Sugarcane remained the dominant crop in the district, mainly due to assured market availability, favourable agroclimatic conditions, irrigation facilities and comparatively better economic returns. Oilseeds recorded the highest annual growth rate, indicating increasing diversification towards commercial and demand-driven crops. However, the slow and unstable growth of pulses reflects the need for policy support to promote pulse cultivation for nutritional security and soil fertility improvement. Overall, the findings suggest that farmers' croparea allocation decisions in Baghpat district are largely influenced by profitability, market access, irrigation availability and resource conditions.

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