Growth trend analysis of soybean and groundnut in Maharashtra: A compound growth rate approach

Introduction

Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) are one of the most important oilseed crops cultivated worldwide and play a vital role in agricultural economies by contributing to edible oil production, nutritional security, and farmers' income. Oilseed crops occupy a significant position in Indian agriculture due to their importance in food, feed, industrial applications, and export potential. Groundnut is commonly known as the "King of Oilseeds" because of its high oil content and nutritional value, while soybean is often referred to as the "Golden Bean" because of its rich protein and oil composition. India is one of the major producers of oilseeds in the world. Soybean occupies nearly 112-119 lakh hectares with production ranging from 130-151 lakh tonnes and productivity of about 983-1063 kg/ha. Groundnut occupies approximately 60-65 lakh hectares with production of about 118-119 lakh tonnes and productivity around 1900-2000 kg/ha. Maharashtra is one of the important oilseedproducing states, where soybean occupies nearly 45-52 lakh hectares with production ranging between 50-73 lakh tonnes and productivity of about 1100-1169 kg/ha. Groundnut in Maharashtra occupies around 2.5-3.0 lakh hectares with production ranging from 3.0-4.5 lakh tonnes and productivity of approximately 1200-1500 kg/ha. ((UPAg), SOPA, Research studies, 2025) [20,19] . Growth analysis of agricultural commodities is an important tool for understanding trends in area, production, and productivity over time. Estimation of growth rates helps in evaluating the performance and progress of crops and provides insights into the impact of technological and institutional factors on agricultural development. Compound growth rate analysis specifically helps identify whether observed changes in production are mainly due to expansion in cultivated area or improvements in productivity. In recent years, fluctuations in oilseed production have raised concerns regarding self-sufficiency in edible oil production and dependence on imports. Therefore, understanding the growth patterns of major oilseed crops such as groundnut and soybean is essential for designing appropriate policy measures.

Materials and Methods

Data Resources

The present study utilized time series data on three major variables, namely area, production, and productivity, for selected edible oilseed crops in India. The study was based entirely on secondary data collected from various published sources such as the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, Government of India, Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, and official websites including India Agri Stat, Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

Methodology

The study includes a 20-year duration from 2004-05 to 2023-24, focusing on Maharashtra state as a whole. To identify decadal trends in growth rates, the time-series data was categorized into two sub periods, each period of tenyears and overall period of twenty years respectively, and results are presented under the category of cereals, pulses and oilseeds respectively. Where, b = antilog of slope of area/ production/ productivity. Regression coefficient was tested for significance by using student's t-test During Period I (2004-05 to 2013-14), the area under groundnut cultivation declined significantly at an annual growth rate of 5.14 per cent, while production also recorded a significant decrease of 3.25 per cent. The decline in production was relatively lower than the decline in area, which may be attributed to improvements in productivity.

Results and Discussion

Productivity showed a positive growth rate of 1.99 per cent; however, the increase was statistically non-significant, suggesting that yield improvements during this period were inconsistent.

During Period II (2014-15 to 2023-24), the declining trend in area under groundnut cultivation continued, with a significant reduction of 3.78 per cent per annum. Production also decreased by 2.77 per cent, although the decline was statistically non-significant. Productivity increased at a rate of 1.04 per cent; however, the growth remained nonsignificant. This indicates that while yield performance showed a slight improvement, it was not sufficient to offset the decline in cultivated area and maintain production levels.

Over the overall study period (2004-05 to 2023-24), groundnut cultivation recorded a significant decline in both area and production, with annual growth rates of -2.59 per cent and -1.63 per cent, respectively. In contrast, productivity exhibited a significant positive growth rate of 0.99 per cent.

Discussion

The compound growth analysis revealed contrasting trends in soybean and groundnut cultivation in Maharashtra. Soybean showed a significant increase in area and production during all periods, indicating its growing importance in the state's agricultural economy. The higher growth in production compared to area suggests the influence of improved technologies, better varieties, and enhanced management practices. However, the nonsignificant growth in productivity indicates unstable yield improvements. In contrast, groundnut recorded a declining trend in area and production, possibly due to farmers shifting towards more profitable crops such as soybean.

Although productivity showed a positive trend, the improvement was not sufficient to offset the decline in cultivated area. These findings indicate the expanding importance of soybean and emphasize the need for strategies to enhance the productivity and profitability of groundnut cultivation in Maharashtra.

Conclusion

The study revealed contrasting growth patterns in major oilseed crops in Maharashtra during the study period. Soybean recorded significant positive growth in area and production across all periods, indicating its increasing importance in the state's oilseed economy. However, productivity growth remained positive but non-significant, suggesting that the increase in production was mainly driven by expansion of cultivated area rather than improvements in yield. This expansion may be attributed to factors such as higher profitability, increased market demand, and wider adaptability of soybean in regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada. In contrast, groundnut exhibited a declining trend in both area and production throughout the study period. The reduction in groundnut cultivation may be associated with a shift of farmers towards comparatively more remunerative crops such as soybean and cotton. However, productivity showed some improvement, indicating the contribution of improved technologies and management practices despite the reduction in cultivated area.

Efforts should be made to enhance soybean productivity through the development and adoption of high-yielding and climate-resilient varieties and improved crop management practices. For example, the promotion of improved soybean varieties such as JS-335, MAUS-71, and Phule Kimaya, along with balanced fertilizer use, drip irrigation, and integrated pest management practices, can help improve yield levels. For groundnut, emphasis should be given to increasing productivity through improved seed varieties and modern production technologies. For instance, the adoption of varieties such as TAG-24, JL-501, and Phule Bharati, along with efficient water management and mechanized cultivation practices, may enhance productivity. Further, suitable policy support and crop diversification strategies should be encouraged to maintain sustainability and balance in the oilseed sector of Maharashtra.

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