Trends and growth analysis of rose cultivation in India: Evidence from area and production dynamics

Introduction

Floriculture has emerged as a high-value sector of agriculture, contributing significantly to income generation, employment and export earnings. Among ornamental crops, Rose (Rosa spp.) occupies a prominent position and is widely regarded as the "queen of flowers" due to its aesthetic appeal, fragrance, and wide range of applications (Govindasamy et al., 2023) [3] . Roses hold significant economical and cultural importance and are extensively cultivated across the world for ornamental, industrial and commercial purposes (Leghari et al., 2016) [11] . In India, favourable agro-climatic conditions have facilitated the expansion of rose cultivation, making it one of the most important crops in the floriculture sector. The crop has diverse value-added products, which enhance its economic potential. Roses are widely used in the perfumery, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and food processing industries to produce products such as essential oils, rose water and gulkand (Hummer and Janick, 2009) [4] . Additionally, they are widely used in religious rituals, social ceremonies and landscaping, ensuring consistent domestic demand in the market (Govindasamy et al., 2023) [3] . The multi purpose nature of roses makes it a commercially viable crop with both domestic and export market opportunities. In India, the area and production of roses have shown a significant increasing trend over the past decade. The area under rose cultivation increased from 26.33 thousand hectares in 2014-15 to 44.57 thousand hectares in 2024-25, while the production of loose flowers increased from 91.75 thousand metric tonnes to 208.45 thousand metric tonnes, indicating significant expansion driven by rising demand and profitability (MoA & FW, 2024-25). This growth reflects a shift towards commercialization and diversification within the agricultural sector. Despite this positive trend, the floriculture sector faces several challenges, including price fluctuations, inadequate post-harvest infrastructure and inefficient marketing systems, which limit the realization of full economic benefits (Govindasamy et al., 2023) [3] . Therefore, analyzing the trends in area and production of rose is essential to understand growth dynamics, assess productivity changes and identify constraints affecting the sector. Such analysis provides valuable insights for policy formulation, technological interventions and improving market efficiency, thereby enhancing the sustainability and www.extensionjournal.com profitability of rose cultivation.

Methodology

The study was based on the time-series data on area and production of rose in India, collected from various published sources such as the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Indiastat, APEDA for the period 2011-12 to 2023-24. The data were summarized, tabulated and analyzed using statistical measures like trend analysis. In order to analyze the growth in area and production of rose, compound annual growth rates were computed using the following model (Rajini Devi et al., 2025) [14] .

Where, Y = dependent variable (area and production) A = Intercept t = Year B = Regression coefficient CAGR= Compound Annual Growth Rate in terms of percentage.

Results and Discussion

Trends in Area under Rose Cultivation

The trend analysis of area under rose cultivation in India presented in Table 1. reveals a consistent and statistically significant increasing trend over the study period (2011-12 to 2023-24). The area expanded from 27.87 thousand hectares to 44.55 thousand hectares, indicating a substantial rise in land allocation towards rose cultivation. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.05 per cent, significant at the 1 per cent level, confirms the steady expansion. The high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.88) and t-value (8.86) indicate a strong and reliable upward trend. The line graph of area under rose cultivation (Fig. 1) would show a gradual upward slope, with minor dips observed around 2014-15 and 2018-19, followed by a consistent rise thereafter. The upward trajectory indicates increasing farmer preference for floriculture, particularly roses, due to better economic returns. The findings were in consistent with Kankal et al. (2021) [6] reported that rose cultivation is a profitable enterprise, encouraging expansion in cultivated area. Similarly, Govindasamy et al. (2023) [3] highlighted the growing importance of floriculture in India, which supports the observed increase in area.

Trends in Loose Flower Production

Loose flower production exhibited a rapid and highly significant growth trend during the study period (Table 1.). Production increased from 66.17 thousand tonnes in 2011-12 to 181.25 thousand tonnes in 2023-24, reflecting a near threefold increase. The CAGR of 9.21 per cent, significant at the 1 per cent level, indicates strong growth momentum. The R² value of 0.89 confirm the robustness and statistical reliability of the trend. The rapid increase in loose flower production aligns with findings of Pandey et al. (2023) [13] and Taj et al. (2013) [16] , who emphasized the importance of domestic demand and efficient marketing channels in driving flower production. The growth also supports observations by Singh et al. (2022) [15] that rising consumption in religious and social functions significantly boosts demand for loose flowers. Further, the higher growth rate of production compared to area suggests productivity improvements, which is consistent with Tiwari (2020) [17] and Verma (2023) [18] , who reported that adoption of improved technologies enhances flower yield and profitability.

Trends in Cut Flower Production

In contrast to area and loose flower production, cut flower production exhibited a highly fluctuating and unstable trend (Table 1.). The data shows sharp variations across years, with an unusually high value in 2011-12, followed by inconsistent patterns in subsequent years. The negative CAGR of -20.99 per cent significant at the 10 per cent level, indicates an overall declining trend. The low R² value (0.27) suggests poor explanatory power of the trend model, reflects weak statistical significance. This instability is consistent with findings of Govindasamy et al. (2023) [3] , who reported declining trends in rose exports despite high production potential. Similarly, Taj et al. (2013) [16] and Kumar (2023) [9] highlighted that long marketing chains and presence of intermediaries reduce efficiency, which may negatively affect cut flower production. The observed decline can also be linked to constraints identified by Singh et al. (2022) [15] and Kavitha et al. (2021) [7] , such as: lack of cold storage facilities, price fluctuations, poor post-harvest management and limited access to export markets The results clearly indicate that rose cultivation in India is becoming increasingly domestic market-driven, with farmers preferring loose flower production due to its stable demand, lower risk, reduced dependence on infrastructure etc. However, the declining trend in cut flower production highlights structural inefficiencies in the floriculture sector.

Conclusion

The study clearly demonstrates that rose cultivation in India has undergone a significant transformation over the study period, characterized by a steady expansion in cultivated area and substantial growth in loose flower production. The positive and statistically significant growth in area (4.05%) and loose flower production (9.21%) reflects increasing farmer preference for floriculture as a remunerative enterprise, supported by strong and consistent domestic demand. The relatively higher growth in production compared to area further indicates improvements in productivity, likely driven by the adoption of improved technologies and better crop management practices. In contrast, the declining and highly unstable trend observed in cut flower production (-20.99%) highlights structural inefficiencies within the floriculture value chain. The weak statistical reliability of the trend further suggests vulnerability to market fluctuations and infrastructural constraints. Issues such as inadequate cold chain facilities, poor post-harvest management, price volatility and inefficient marketing systems continue to limit the growth potential of the cut flower segment, particularly in exportoriented markets. Overall, the findings indicate a clear shift towards a domestic market-driven floriculture system, with farmers increasingly favouring loose flower production due to its lower risk and stable demand. However, to ensure balanced and sustainable sectoral growth, it is imperative to strengthen cold chain infrastructure, promote efficient marketing systems through farmer-producer linkages, enhance export competitiveness and improve farmers' capacity in post-harvest management and value addition.

Acknowledgement

AcknowledgementThe authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. B. Mohan Uday Raj, Assistant Statistician, Cost of Cultivation Scheme, PJTAU, for his valuable assistance in data analysis, manuscript editing, and proofreading. The authors also thank Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University for providing institutional support.

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