Artificial Intelligence–Driven Assessment of Conservation Agriculture Practices on Crop Water Productivity, Grain Quality and Soil Health of Wheat in Typic Ustochrept Soils of Western U. P.

Introduction

The rice-wheat production system of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), particularly in Western Uttar Pradesh, has been a cornerstone of India's food security but is now facing serious sustainability challenges due to intensive input use and conventional tillage practices. Continuous puddling in rice followed by intensive tillage for wheat has resulted in soil structure degradation, declining soil organic carbon (SOC), and inefficient water and nutrient use. Lal (2004) reported that intensive cultivation in alluvial soils leads to SOC depletion rates of 0.3-0.5 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, which directly affects soil productivity and resilience. In Western Uttar Pradesh, SOC levels in Typic Ustochrept soils have declined to 0.35-0.45%, significantly below the critical threshold (≈0.75%) required for maintaining soil quality. Wheat productivity in this region, although relatively high (4.5-5.5 t ha⁻¹), has shown signs of stagnation over the past decade. Conventional tillage requires 4-6 field operations, increasing fuel consumption by 60-80 L ha⁻¹ and raising the cost of cultivation by Rs. 5,000-7,000 ha⁻¹. Delayed sowing due to prolonged land preparation further reduces yield potential by 1-1.5% per day after the optimum sowing window. In contrast, zero tillage-based systems enable timely sowing and reduce turnaround time between crops by 7-10 days, leading to yield advantages of 8-15% (Jat et al., 2014) [11] . Kumar observed that long-term adoption of conservation-based practices increased system productivity by 12-18% and net returns by 20-30% in the north-western IGP. Water scarcity is emerging as a major constraint in wheat production systems. The average irrigation requirement for conventionally tilled wheat ranges from 450 to 550 mm, with water productivity values of 1.2-1.4 kg m⁻³. However, inefficient irrigation practices lead to substantial water losses through evaporation and deep percolation. Residuebased conservation systems significantly reduce these losses. Surface residue cover of 5-7 t ha⁻¹ has been shown to reduce soil evaporation by 25-40% and increase soil moisture retention by 15-20%. Humphreys et al. (2010) [10] reported irrigation water savings of 15-25% in zero tillage systems, while furrow irrigated raised bed (FIRB) systems achieved savings of up to 30-35%. Consequently, crop water productivity under these systems increased to 1.8-2.2 kg m⁻³, representing a 30-50% improvement over conventional practices. Soil health degradation is another critical issue in intensively cultivated systems. Continuous tillage disrupts soil aggregates, accelerates organic matter oxidation, and reduces microbial activity. Long-term studies indicate that residue retention and reduced tillage significantly improve soil physical, chemical, and biological properties. SOC levels in CA-based systems have been reported to increase from 0.38-0.44% to 0.55-0.70% over 8-10 years, with annual sequestration rates of 0.4-0.8 Mg C ha⁻¹. Improvements in soil aggregation (20-35%), infiltration rate (25-40%), and water-holding capacity (10-20%) have also been documented. Biological indicators of soil health show substantial enhancement under conservation-based practices. Microbial biomass carbon increases by 25-45%, reflecting improved microbial activity and nutrient cycling. Enzyme activities such as dehydrogenase and phosphatase have been reported to increase by 30-60%, indicating enhanced soil biological functioning. In Typic Ustochrept soils, bulk density typically decreases from 1.52-1.60 Mg m⁻³ under conventional tillage to 1.38-1.45 Mg m⁻³ under CA systems, facilitating better root growth and water movement. Naresh et al. (2020, 2023) [19,21] in Western Uttar Pradesh demonstrated that residue-based zero tillage increased SOC by 0.15-0.22%, improved infiltration rate by 22-34%, and enhanced microbial biomass carbon by 28-40% compared to conventional tillage. Grain quality is closely linked to soil fertility and water availability. In conventional systems, wheat protein content typically ranges from 10.5 to 11.8%, whereas conservationbased systems have shown improvements up to 12.5-13.8% due to enhanced nitrogen-use efficiency and improved soil moisture conditions. Test weight has been reported to increase from 38-40 g under conventional practices to 41-44 g under residue-retained systems. Gluten content also improves by 2-4 percentage points, contributing to better processing quality. These improvements are attributed to sustained nutrient availability and reduced stress during grain filling. Moreover, conservation-based practices are their role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate resilience. Reduced tillage lowers fuel consumption by 50-60%, thereby decreasing carbon dioxide emissions. Residue retention contributes to carbon sequestration, with estimates ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Improved soil moisture retention and reduced temperature fluctuations enhance crop tolerance to drought and heat stress, which are becoming increasingly frequent under changing climatic conditions. Despite these well-documented benefits, the performance of conservation-based systems varies across locations due to spatial variability in soil properties, weather conditions, and management practices. Conventional statistical approaches often fail to capture such complex interactions. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques provide a robust framework for analyzing large datasets and identifying nonlinear relationships among variables. Bengio et al. demonstrated that deep learning models can effectively handle high-dimensional data and improve prediction accuracy in complex systems. In agricultural applications, AI models such as random forest and artificial neural networks have achieved prediction accuracies (R²) ranging from 0.85 to 0.95 for crop yield, soil properties, and water productivity. Integration of remote sensing data with AI further enhances the spatial and temporal evaluation of agricultural systems. Vegetation indices such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have shown strong correlations (r = 0.75-0.90) with crop biomass and yield. Soil moisture indices derived from satellite data provide additional inputs for improving model predictions. These technologies enable real-time monitoring and large-scale assessment across heterogeneous farmer fields. Therefore, scientifically validated evidence indicates that conservationbased management practices significantly improve crop water productivity, grain quality, and soil health while reducing input use and environmental impacts. The integration of AI-based analytical tools with long-term, farmer-participatory field data provides a comprehensive approach to evaluate these systems under real-world conditions. This study aims to generate robust, data-driven insights into the sustainability and efficiency of wheat production systems in Typic Ustochrept soils of Western Uttar Pradesh, contributing to climate-resilient and resourceefficient agriculture in the Indo-Gangetic Plains.

Materials and Methods

The study was conducted over a ten-year period (2015-2025) in farmers' participatory mode across 100 farmer fields distributed in five districts of Western Uttar Pradesh, namely Meerut, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Bulandshahr, and Muzaffarnagar. The region is characterized by a semi-arid to sub-humid climate with hot summers and cool winters. The mean annual rainfall ranges from 700 to 800 mm, of which about 80% is received during the monsoon season. The soils of the experimental sites were classified as Typic Ustochrepts, with sandy loam to loam texture, slightly alkaline reaction (pH 7.4-8.2), low to medium soil organic carbon (0.38-0.44%), and medium fertility status. The experiment was designed using a randomized block design (RBD) in a farmer-participatory framework, where each farmer's field was considered as one replication. Each farmer allocated a uniform area of approximately 0.1 ha, which was subdivided into five treatment plots. The treatments consisted of: (T₁) conventional tillage (CT) with residue removal; (T₂) zero tillage without residue retention (ZT-R); (T₃) zero tillage with residue retention (ZT+R) at 5-7 t ha⁻¹; (T₄) furrow irrigated raised beds without residue (FIRB-R); and (T₅) furrow irrigated raised beds with residue retention (FIRB+R). Wheat was grown during the rabi season each year using regionally adapted high-yielding varieties. Sowing under zero tillage and raised bed systems was carried out using zero-till cum bed planters, respectively, ensuring uniform seed placement and depth. In residue retention treatments, crop residues from the preceding rice crop were retained and evenly spread over the soil surface. In contrast, residues were removed in conventional tillage plots. A uniform fertilizer dose of 150:60:40 kg N: P₂O₅: K₂O ha⁻¹ was applied across all treatments based on regional recommendations. Nitrogen was applied in three splits (basal, first irrigation, and second irrigation), while phosphorus and potassium were applied as basal doses. Irrigation scheduling was based on critical growth stages, including crown root initiation, tillering, jointing, flowering, and grain filling. The number of irrigations varied between 3 and 5 depending on treatment, with reduced irrigation frequency in residue-retained and raised bed systems. Observations on crop growth, yield attributes, and grain yield were recorded using standard agronomic procedures. Crop water productivity (CWP) was computed as the ratio of grain yield (kg ha⁻¹) to total water input (irrigation water plus effective rainfall), expressed in kg m⁻³. Grain quality parameters, including protein content, test weight, and gluten content, was analyzed using standard laboratory protocols. Soil sampling was conducted from the 0-15 cm depth at the initiation of the study and after each cropping season. Soil organic carbon was determined using the Walkley-Black method, while microbial biomass carbon was estimated through the fumigation-extraction method. Bulk density was measured using the core sampler method. Infiltration rate was assessed using a double-ring infiltrometer, and aggregate stability was determined through wet sieving. For artificial intelligence-based evaluation, a comprehensive database was generated incorporating soil properties, crop parameters, weather data, irrigation inputs, and residue levels. Machine learning models, including random forest, support vector machine, and artificial neural networks, were employed to analyze and predict crop water productivity, grain yield, and soil health indicators. Farmers' field data served as independent observations, enhancing model generalization. The dataset was divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics such as coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Additionally, remote sensing data were integrated to capture spatial variability across farmer fields. Vegetation indices such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were derived and used as auxiliary inputs in AI models. Statistical analysis of field data was performed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) appropriate for RBD, considering farmers as replications. Combined analysis over years and locations was carried out to evaluate temporal stability and spatial consistency of treatment effects. This integrated methodology combining farmer-participatory experimentation, long-term field data, and AI-based modeling provided a robust framework for assessing the sustainability and efficiency of conservation agriculture practices in wheat-based systems of Typic Ustochrept soils. [15] . The higher tiller density and grain number observed under CA treatments suggest improved crop establishment and nutrient uptake efficiency. Jat et al.

Results and Discussion

(2014) [11] , zero tillage combined with residue retention improves early crop vigor, leading to higher yield components. Naresh et al. (2017) [17] emphasized that long-term adoption of CA enhances rhizospheric activity and soil biological processes, which contribute to sustained yield improvement.

The increase in 1000-grain weight indicates better grain filling due to prolonged availability of soil moisture during critical growth stages. Furrow irrigated raised bed (FIRB) systems further enhance productivity by improving water distribution and reducing waterlogging, thereby promoting root growth and nutrient uptake (Humphreys et al., 2010) [10] . In contrast, conventional tillage leads to soil degradation, reduced organic matter, and compaction, which negatively affect crop performance over time. Treatments with residue retention (T₃ and T₅) consistently exhibited higher WUE and water productivity than those without residue. Statistical analysis indicated that these differences were significant.

The improvement in water productivity under CA practices is primarily due to enhanced soil moisture conservation and reduced evaporation losses. Residue mulch acts as a protective layer on the soil surface, minimizing direct evaporation and improving water infiltration (Rockström et al., 2010) [25] . Zero tillage further contributes to improved soil structure, leading to increased infiltration rates and reduced runoff. Naresh et al. (2018) [20] reported that CA practices can reduce irrigation requirements by 15-25% in wheat-based systems of western Uttar Pradesh. The present findings are consistent with these observations. The higher WUE observed under FIRB systems can be attributed to efficient water application and reduced water losses. Jat et al. (2019) [12] revealed that in raised bed planting improves irrigation efficiency by optimizing water distribution and reducing deep percolation. Improved soil organic matter under CA enhances soil water holding capacity, ensuring better crop performance during dry periods (Farooq et al., 2011) [7] . The combination of residue retention and reduced tillage creates a favorable soil environment that supports efficient water use. These results highlight the potential of CA practices in addressing water scarcity challenges and improving irrigation efficiency in semi-arid regions. Table 3 indicated that conservation agriculture (CA) practices significantly improved soil organic carbon (SOC) and its various fractions over the experimental period (2015-2025). Among the treatments, T₅ (FIRB with residue retention) consistently recorded the highest SOC values, increasing from 0.48% in 2015 to 0.68% in 2025. In contrast, conventional tillage (T₁) showed relatively lower SOC levels, increasing marginally from 0.38% to 0.41% during the same period.

The labile carbon fraction, which represents the active and easily decomposable pool, showed a marked increase under CA treatments. T₅ recorded an increase from 0.20% in 2015 to 0.26% in 2025, whereas T₁ remained relatively low (0.10-0.12%). Similarly, particulate organic carbon (POC) increased significantly under residue-retained treatments, reaching 0.30% under T₅ compared to 0.15% under CT in 2025. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is important for microbial activity, also increased from 52 mg kg⁻¹ to 75 mg kg⁻¹ under T₅, while CT recorded only 40-48 mg kg⁻¹.

Passive carbon fractions, which represent the stable and long-term carbon pool, showed gradual improvement under CA practices. T₅ recorded an increase from 0.30% to 0.36%, indicating enhanced carbon stabilization. Residue-retained treatments (T₃ and T₅) consistently outperformed nonresidue treatments, demonstrating the importance of crop residue management in maintaining soil carbon pools. Statistical analysis indicated that differences among treatments were significant for all carbon fractions. The significant increase in SOC and its fractions under CA practices is primarily attributed to continuous addition of crop residues and reduced soil disturbance. Residue retention enhances carbon inputs into the soil, while reduced tillage minimizes oxidation losses, leading to net carbon accumulation. This finding is consistent with Lal (2015) [15] , who emphasized that CA systems play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and soil restoration. Naresh et al. (2016) [22] reported that long-term adoption of CA practices in the Indo-Gangetic Plains increased SOC by 20-40%, which aligns well with the present findings. The increase in labile carbon fractions under CA indicates improved soil biological activity and nutrient cycling, as this fraction serves as an immediate energy source for soil microorganisms. Enhanced microbial activity further accelerates decomposition and nutrient mineralization processes. The substantial increase in particulate organic carbon (POC) reflects improved aggregation and physical protection of organic matter within soil aggregates. Six et al.

(2002) [26] , reported that CA practices promote aggregate formation, which stabilizes organic carbon and protects it from rapid decomposition. The increase in DOC under CA treatments indicates improved soil solution dynamics and availability of soluble organic compounds, which are essential for microbial metabolism. The gradual increase in passive carbon fractions suggests long-term stabilization of carbon in the soil, contributing to improved soil resilience and sustainability. In contrast, conventional tillage disrupts soil aggregates and accelerates organic matter decomposition, leading to lower SOC levels. Therefore, the results demonstrate that CA practices, particularly when combined with residue retention, significantly enhance soil carbon pools, improve soil health, and contribute to climate change mitigation through increased carbon sequestration. The data ( Enzymatic activities, including dehydrogenase, urease, and phosphatase, showed significant enhancement under CA treatments. Dehydrogenase activity increased from 28 to 38 µg TPF g⁻¹ soil day⁻¹ in T₅, while urease and phosphatase activities also showed consistent improvements. Residueretained treatments (T₃ and T₅) consistently outperformed non-residue treatments, indicating the importance of organic inputs. Statistical analysis confirmed that differences among treatments were significant. The enhancement in microbial biomass and enzyme activity under CA systems is primarily attributed to increased organic matter input and improved soil microclimate. Residue retention provides a continuous supply of carbon substrates, which stimulate microbial growth and activity (Doran, 1980) [6] . Naresh et al. (2019) [12] reported that long-term CA practices significantly increase microbial biomass due to improved soil organic carbon and reduced disturbance. The higher enzymatic activity observed under CA reflects enhanced nutrient cycling and soil fertility, as enzymes play a critical role in organic matter decomposition and nutrient mineralization (Nannipieri et al., 2012) [16] . Dehydrogenase activity is an indicator of overall microbial activity and was significantly higher under CA, suggesting improved biological functioning of soil. Urease and phosphatase activities are directly related to nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, respectively, indicating improved nutrient availability under CA systems. Reduced microbial activity under conventional tillage may be due to soil disturbance and rapid oxidation of organic matter. These findings confirm that CA practices improve soil biological health, which is essential for sustainable crop production. The observed improvements in soil physical properties under CA practices can be attributed to reduced soil disturbance, increased organic matter input, and enhanced biological activity. Reduced tillage helps maintain soil structure and prevents the breakdown of aggregates, while residue retention adds organic matter that acts as a binding agent for soil particles. This is consistent with the findings of Bronick and Lal (2005) [4] , who emphasized the role of organic matter in improving soil aggregation and structure. Naresh et al. reported significant improvements in soil physical properties under long-term CA practices in western Uttar Pradesh, including reductions in bulk density and increases in porosity and infiltration rate. The present results strongly support these findings, as T₅ consistently showed the most favorable soil physical conditions. The reduction in bulk density under CA is mainly due to increased organic matter and improved aggregation, which create a more porous soil structure. Lower bulk density facilitates root penetration and enhances water and nutrient movement within the soil. Increased porosity further improves soil aeration and water infiltration, creating a favorable environment for plant growth. The significant increase in infiltration rate under CA is particularly important in reducing runoff and improving water use efficiency. Residue mulch protects the soil surface from raindrop impact, preventing surface sealing and promoting water entry into the soil. According to Blanco-Canqui and Lal (2008) [2] , residue retention significantly enhances infiltration and reduces soil erosion. Improved water holding capacity under CA is attributed to higher organic matter content, which increases the soil's ability to retain moisture. This is especially beneficial in semi-arid regions, where water availability is a major constraint.

The enhancement in aggregate stability and MWD under CA indicates improved soil structural stability, which reduces susceptibility to erosion and degradation. Six et al.

(2002) [26] , also found that CA practices promote the formation of stable soil aggregates, which protect organic carbon and improve soil resilience. In contrast, conventional tillage disrupts soil aggregates, accelerates organic matter decomposition, and increases compaction, leading to poor soil physical conditions. Frequent tillage operations also create a plough pan, which restricts root growth and water movement. [9] , who reported that nitrogen availability during grain filling plays a crucial role in determining wheat protein content. The improvement in phosphorus uptake under CA may also be linked to increased phosphatase activity, which enhances the availability of phosphorus from organic sources. Similarly, better potassium uptake is associated with improved soil structure and moisture availability, which facilitate nutrient mobility. The higher NUE observed under CA is particularly important from an environmental perspective, as it reduces fertilizer losses and minimizes environmental pollution.

According to Ladha et al. (2016), improving NUE is essential for sustainable agricultural intensification.

In contrast, conventional tillage systems often suffer from nutrient losses due to poor soil structure, low organic matter, and inefficient fertilizer use. Frequent soil disturbance disrupts microbial activity and accelerates nutrient loss, leading to lower nutrient uptake and efficiency. However, the results clearly indicate that CA practices, particularly when combined with residue retention, significantly enhance nutrient uptake and use efficiency in wheat by improving soil health, microbial activity, and root growth. These improvements contribute to higher productivity and sustainability of the cropping system The results clearly demonstrated that conservation agriculture (CA) practices significantly improved root growth parameters and below-ground biomass over the experimental period (2015-2025). Among all treatments, T₅ (furrow irrigated raised beds with residue retention) consistently recorded the highest values for root length, root density, root volume, and root biomass. Root length under T₅ increased from 21 cm in 2015 to 28 cm in 2025, whereas conventional tillage (T₁) recorded comparatively lower values, increasing marginally from 16 cm to 18 cm during the same period. Root biomass showed a substantial improvement under CA systems. T₅ recorded an increase from 1.6 t ha⁻¹ in 2015 to 2.2 t ha⁻¹ in 2025, while T₁ remained relatively low (1.1-1.2 t ha⁻¹). Root density and root volume followed similar trends, with CA treatments, particularly those with residue retention (T₃ and T₅), showing significantly higher values compared to non-residue treatments (T₂ and T₄). Root depth distribution also improved under CA practices, with a greater proportion of roots penetrating deeper soil layers (20-40 cm and beyond). In contrast, roots under CT were mostly confined to the upper soil layers (0-15 cm), indicating restricted root growth. The root: shoot ratio increased slightly under CA treatments, reflecting better allocation of biomass below ground. Temporal trends indicated that improvements in root parameters became more pronounced over time, especially after 3-5 years of continuous CA adoption. Statistical analysis confirmed that differences among treatments were significant for all root parameters across years. The significant improvement in root growth under CA practices can be attributed to enhanced soil physical conditions, increased organic matter content, and improved soil moisture availability. Reduced soil disturbance under zero tillage and raised bed systems helps maintain soil structure, allowing roots to penetrate deeper into the soil profile. This is consistent with findings of Bengough et al. (2011), who reported that reduced mechanical impedance facilitates root elongation and development. [11] , who reported that CA practices can reduce operational costs by 10-20% compared to conventional tillage systems. Naresh et al. (2019) [20] also observed that long-term adoption of CA practices in western Uttar Pradesh led to substantial improvements in farm profitability due to lower input costs and higher yields. The present results strongly support these findings, as T₅ consistently recorded the highest net returns and B:C ratio throughout the study period.

Residue retention plays a crucial role in enhancing economic returns by improving soil fertility and reducing the need for external inputs such as fertilizers and irrigation. Improved soil organic carbon and nutrient availability under CA reduce input requirements while maintaining high productivity levels. Gathala et al. (2013) [8] also reported higher profitability under CA due to improved soil health and resource use efficiency. The increase in gross returns under CA treatments is mainly driven by higher grain yield and improved crop performance. Enhanced water use efficiency, better nutrient uptake, and improved soil physical conditions under CA contribute to increased productivity, which directly translates into higher economic returns.

The improvement in B: C ratio under CA indicates better economic efficiency and sustainability. A higher B:C ratio reflects greater returns per unit investment, making CA practices more attractive and economically viable for farmers. This is particularly important in regions with limited resources, where cost reduction and efficiency are critical. Additionally, the long-term benefits of CA, such as improved soil health and reduced environmental degradation, further enhance its economic sustainability.

Although initial adoption of CA may require investment in specialized machinery, the long-term gains in productivity and cost savings outweigh these initial costs. In contrast, conventional tillage systems are associated with higher costs and lower efficiency due to soil degradation, increased input requirements, and lower productivity. Frequent tillage operations not only increase costs but also negatively affect soil health, leading to declining returns over time. [24] , tillage operations account for a large proportion of total energy use in agriculture, and minimizing these operations can substantially reduce energy consumption. Naresh et al. (2018) [20] reported that CA practices in wheat systems of western Uttar Pradesh reduced energy inputs by 15-25% while simultaneously increasing energy output due to higher productivity. The present findings strongly support these observations, as T₅ consistently recorded lower energy input and higher output compared to conventional tillage. Residue retention further contributes to improved energy efficiency by enhancing soil fertility and moisture retention, which in turn leads to higher biomass production. Increased biomass directly translates into higher energy output, thereby improving the energy balance of the system. Improved soil organic carbon and microbial activity under CA also enhance nutrient cycling, reducing the need for energy-intensive external inputs such as fertilizers. The higher energy use efficiency observed under CA treatments indicates a more sustainable production system, as it maximizes output while minimizing input. This is particularly important in the context of rising energy costs and the need for energy conservation in agriculture.

According to Lal (2015) [15] , sustainable agricultural systems should focus on optimizing energy use while maintaining productivity. The increase in energy productivity under CA reflects better utilization of available resources and efficient conversion of energy into economic yield. Improved soil physical properties, such as reduced bulk density and increased porosity, enhance root growth and nutrient uptake, contributing to higher productivity and energy output. In contrast, conventional tillage systems are characterized by high energy inputs and lower efficiency due to excessive mechanical operations and inefficient resource use. Frequent tillage not only increases fuel consumption but also leads to soil degradation, which negatively affects crop productivity and energy output. Among the treatments, conventional tillage (T₁) consistently recorded the highest global warming potential (GWP), which increased from 3200 kg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ in 2015 to 3400 kg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ in 2025. In contrast, T₅ (furrow irrigated

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