Seasonal dynamics and price volatility in pearl millet markets: Evidence from time series analysis

Introduction

Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), commonly referred to as bajra, is an important cereal crop cultivated mainly in the arid and semi-arid regions of Asia and Africa. The crop is widely recognized for its tolerance to drought, high temperature, and poor soil fertility, making it particularly suitable for rainfed farming systems. Because of these adaptive characteristics, pearl millet is increasingly viewed as a climate-resilient crop capable of supporting food and nutritional security in environmentally fragile regions (Satyavathi et al., 2021) [13] . In addition to its resilience, pearl millet possesses considerable nutritional value, being rich in micronutrients, dietary fibre, and essential amino acids when compared with several major cereal crops (Tanwar et al., 2025) [15] . India ranks among the leading producers of pearl millet globally, where the crop is predominantly grown under dryland conditions. In several semi-arid regions, pearl millet cultivation contributes significantly to sustaining rural livelihoods and enhancing farm resilience under changing climatic conditions (Yadav et al., 2021). Recent studies have also highlighted the growing importance of millets in promoting sustainable agriculture, nutritional security, and climate-smart farming practices (Mukherjee et al., 2025) [11] . Despite its production significance, the marketing of pearl millet often experiences considerable seasonal variation in market arrivals and prices. These fluctuations are largely associated with harvesting cycles, supply availability, and variations in market demand, which may create price instability in agricultural markets. Therefore, understanding seasonal patterns and price behaviour is essential for improving market efficiency and ensuring better price realization for farmers. In this context, the present study examines the seasonal patterns, long-term trends, and price volatility of pearl illet arrivals and prices in selected markets of Maharashtra using advanced time-series analytical techniques.

Materials and Methods

The time series data on monthly arrivals and prices of pearl millet were collected from the major APMCs markets of Maharashtra for the period of 20 years i.e., 2005-2024. Selection of markets were decided on the basis of maximum arrivals of pearl millet in the market. For the data analysis four markets from western Maharashtra, and two markets from Marathwada region were selected. Seasonal indices of arrivals and prices were estimated by ratio to moving average method (Acharya et al. 1995) [20] . www.extensionjournal.com Inter and intra year variability in arrivals and prices were studied by following formula.

Results and Discussion

Seasonal indices of arrivals and prices of pearl millet in Western Maharashtra

The seasonal indices of monthly arrivals and prices of pearl millet in Pune, Chalisgaon, Malegaon and Sangli markets are presented in Table 1 and Fig. 1 The table showed that, in the Pune, Chalisgaon, Malegaon and Sangli markets, the arrivals indexes of pearl millet were maximum in the months of December (147.43%), May (178.88%), October (170.85%) and January (172.24%), respectively and minimum during the month of April (80.38%), July (41.45%), April (65.16%), and July (54.01%), respectively. The indices of per quintal prices were highest in the month December for the three markets namely Pune (107.02%), Malegaon (104.01%) and Sangli (104.67%), and for the Chalisgaon market it was highest in the month of April (104.04%) The arrivals indexes in Pune market were more than 100 in the months of January, February, November and December, in the months of April, May and October to December in Chalisgaon market, in the months of May and September to December in Malegaon market, and in the months of January to February and October to December in Sangli market. The per quintal price index of pearl millet of Pune and Sangli market were above the 100 in the months from August to December, for the Chalisgaon market in the month of April, July, November and December and for the Malegaon market in the month of April, May, July, August, November and December. [2,21] . and prices of were ranged between 103.09 per cent (August) to 157.55 per cent (September) and 38.42 per cent (July) to 43.24 per cent (February), respectively. Similarly, in Malegaon market the variation in arrivals were ranged between 48.38 per cent (September) to 93.07 per cent (November) and variation in prices were ranged between 39.24 per cent (June) to 41.88 per cent (September), respectively. Moreover, in Sangli market, variation in arrivals were ranged between 50.45 per cent (December) to 90.54 per cent (October) while variation in prices were ranged between 42.64 per cent (September) to 45.34 per cent (February), respectively.

Seasonal Indices of arrivals and prices of pearl millet in

Marathwada Region

The intra-year variation in the arrivals and prices of pearl millet in the selected markets of Marathwada region over a period of 20 years (2005-2024) are given in Table 4 and graphically illustrated in fig. 4.

From the Table, it is observed that, the overall variation in arrivals of pearl millet in Jalna and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar markets of Marathwada region are 55.50 per cent and 76.09 per cent, respectively, while variation in prices were 42.72 per cent and 41.90 per cent, respectively.

The month wise analysis shows that, the estimates of arrivals were varied between 40.98 per cent (September) to 94.90 per cent (May) in Jalna market, while variation in prices were ranged between 40.22 per cent (October) to 46.08 per cent (April). In case of Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar market, the variation in arrivals ranged between 63.13 per cent (May) to 95.94 per cent (August) and variation in prices were ranged between 40.04 per cent (January) to 43.70 per cent (April)

Cyclical and irregular movements of time series data on arrivals of pearl millet Western Maharashtra Region

The cyclical and irregular movements of pearl millet arrivals in selected markets of western Maharashtra are presented in Table 5 and [24,25] . The chalisgaon market, however, showed a higher irregular component than the other markets, especially in 2022, indicating that sudden disruptions such as rainfall variations or less arrivals. Earlier studies also highlight the sensitivity of millet supply to climate variation (Sharma et al., 2022; Nayak et al., 2024) [22, 23] .

Marathwada Region

The cyclical and irregular movements of pearl millet arrivals in selected markets of Marathwada region of Maharashtra are presented in Table 6 and Figure 6. In Jalna and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar markets, the cyclical element was strong during 2009-2011 and again in 2020-2023, indicating that production and market arrivals followed a repeating pattern. Sharma and Singh (2014) [14] observed a similar behaviour in Rajasthan, showing a consistent pattern in pearl millet markets. The irregular component remained generally low, except for 2017 in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar market possibly due to when short-term disturbances. (Madhu et al., 2024) [26] . Sharma, 2016) [28] . The irregular values observed to be low that indicates limited influence of random market shocks in the selected pearl millet markets. These low irregular values correspond with efficient functioning of price discovery, possibly supported by procurement and supply chain improvements (Patil et al., 2023) [27] . www.extensionjournal.com [8,10] . The short-term irregular fluctuations in the pearl millet prices particularly observed in the year 2017. These fluctuations may be occurred due to short-lived disturbances probably as result of uneven arrivals in the markets.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The study revealed a distinct seasonal pattern in pearl millet arrivals and prices across the selected markets of Maharashtra. Market arrivals were highly concentrated during October-December following the kharif harvest, which resulted in relatively lower prices due to excess supply. In contrast, prices increased during April-June when market arrivals declined. Time series decomposition indicated that cyclical movements significantly influenced both arrivals and prices, while irregular fluctuations were comparatively higher in arrivals than in prices, suggesting relatively efficient price adjustments in the markets. The rise in cyclical trends after 2020 may reflect increased policy attention and consumer demand for millets in India. Stable and remunerative prices encourage farmers to maintain millet cultivation, while predictable arrivals facilitate participation of traders, processors, and other market actors. However, heavy post-harvest arrivals often create short-term price pressure. Strengthening procurement mechanisms, expanding scientific storage and warehousing infrastructure, and maintaining strategic buffer stocks can help reduce seasonal price volatility and prevent distress sales.

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