Calibration and validation of the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for winter wheat production in southern Sweden

Abstract

The study calibrated and validated the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for winter wheat in southern Sweden using eight seasons of field data (2015-2022) from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. The calibrated model reproduced observed grain yields with RMSE of 0.18 t/ha and d-index of 0.93. Anthesis and maturity dates were predicted within 2.7 and 2.9 days respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that sowing on 1 October with 160 kg N/ha maximized simulated yield at 6.48 t/ha. The validated model provides a reliable platform for exploring climate change impacts and management optimization for Scandinavian wheat systems.