Digital financial inclusion, agricultural extension, rural women, economic agency, mobile money, savings groups, gender norms, financial literacy, Cambodia

Abstract

Evaluating extension program impacts is complicated by selection bias: farmers who participate may differ systematically from those who do not. This research applied propensity score matching (PSM) to estimate the causal effect of a national extension program on smallholder productivity and household welfare in Guatemala. Data from 412 smallholder households across four departments, collected between March 2022 and August 2023, were analyzed using nearest-neighbor matching with a caliper of 0.05. After matching reduced standardized covariate bias from 34.2% to 4.7%, the average treatment effect on the treated showed significant gains: maize yield increased by 23.8% (p<0.001), monthly household income by 18.8% (p = 0.002), and technology adoption scores by 30.6% (p<0.001). Market access and food security indices also improved significantly. Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis indicated results were robust to hidden bias up to gamma = 1.45. These findings provide rigorous evidence that extension participation generates meaningful productivity and welfare gains even after accounting for selection effects.