Evaluating the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South West, Nigeria

Introduction

Climate change is a significant global challenge that affects various sectors, including agriculture, which is a crucial component of the Nigerian economy. It is a pressing global issue, with far-reaching consequences human well-being and agriculture (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2020) [9] . The South West region of Nigeria, which is predominantly agrarian, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are some of the climate-related stressors that affect agricultural productivity and food security in the region (IPCC, 2020) [9] . Climate change refers to significant changes in global temperatures and precipitation patterns over an extended period of time, usually resulting from human activities such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation. According to Jones and Johnson (2019) [10] , climate change has led to shifts in weather patterns and extreme events, including heatwaves, storms, and droughts, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to greenhouse gas emissions. As noted by Rosenzweig et al. (2019) [16] , climate change is the alteration of the earth's climate system, including changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and other environmental factors, that affect ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being. Climate change is the variation on earth's climate which resulted to changes in climate parameters, such as increased vulnerability to food insecurity among rural populations. Also, climate change causes more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms in Nigeria. Further, climate change creates favorable conditions for the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever in Nigeria. Oladipupo (2020) [12] stated climate change has adverse effects on crop yields and agricultural productivity in the South West region of Nigeria. The authors found that rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns are leading to decreased crop yields and food insecurity among farmers. According to Adejuwon (2019), extreme weather conditions disrupt agricultural activities and water leading to economic losses and displacement of communities. All these effects of climate change result in poor agricultural production. Agriculture is the cultivation of crops and rearing of animals for food, fiber, and other products (Adegbola & Alabi, 2020) [1] . It encompasses various agricultural practices, including crop production, livestock production, and mixed farming (Adegbola & Alabi, 2020) [1] . Agriculture can also be defined as a production system that involves the transformation of inputs, such as land, labor, and capital, into outputs, such as food, fiber, and other agricultural products (Ogunjimi & Adeleke, 2020) [2] . Agriculture is a vital sector in Nigeria, contributing significantly to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and providing employment opportunities for millions of people. However, the sector is highly susceptible to climate-related shocks, which can lead to crop failures, reduced yields, and decreased food security. Oyinlola and Adeoti (2019) [15] emphasized the need for sustainable agricultural practices and adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security in Nigeria. Food security is a critical issue globally, with a significant proportion of the population not having reliable access to nutritious and affordable food. The global food security challenge has become increasingly pressing, with the United Nations estimating that the world's population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050 (United Nations, 2020). In Nigeria, food insecurity persists, particularly among vulnerable groups such including public university workers (Oyebade et al., 2020) [14] . The country's agricultural sector, which employs approximately 30% of the workforce, has significant potential for addressing food security concerns (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2020). Agricultural production has been identified as a crucial sector for enhancing food security (Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 2018). Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 2021). Food security is the successful provision of sufficient, safe, nutritious, and culturally acceptable food for all individuals within a society, achieved through sustainable food systems that promote equity and resilience (FAO & WHO, 2019). It emphasizes the need for food systems that are not only productive but also inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Food insecurity on the other hand is the inability to have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for an active and healthy life. According to Sharma et al (2021) [17] , food insecurity refers to barriers that prevent individuals from obtaining enough nutritious food to meet their dietary needs. This can result in hunger, malnutrition, and other health related issues due to lack of essential nutrients. One major causes of food insecurity in Nigeria is low agricultural production. Climate change is one of the major factors militating against agricultural production. Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture and food security in South West Nigeria. With increasing temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, agriculture in the region is facing numerous challenges such as water scarcity, soil degradation, and pest outbreaks (IPCC, 2020) [9] . These impacts not only affect crop production but also have far-reaching consequences on food availability, nutrition, and livelihoods of the population. Thus, there is a need to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South West Nigeria to develop effective adaptation strategies and policies.

Objectives of the Study

The study evaluated the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South-West, Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigated the: 1. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South West region of Nigeria; 2. Adaptive strategies adopted by farmers in South West region of Nigeria to mitigate the impact of climate change; 3. Sustainable agricultural practices that can be adopted in mitigating the impacts of climate change in South West region of Nigeria.

Research Questions

The following research questions guided the study:

1. What are the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South West region of Nigeria? 2. What are the adaptive strategies adopted by farmers in South West region of Nigeria to mitigate the impact of climate change? 3. What are the sustainable agricultural practices that can be adopted by farmers in mitigating the impacts of climate change in South West region of Nigeria?

Research Methodology

The study adopted a descriptive survey research design, and It was carried out in South West, Nigeria. The South West region comprises of six states, namely: Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti States. The population for the study was 660 farmers randomly selected from the six states in South-West region of Nigeria (that is 110 farmers from each state), and sampled using accidental sampling technique.

There was no sampling since the population is small and manageable.

The instrument for data collection was structured questionnaire designed by the researcher. The questionnaire contained 35 items (that is 13 items for research question 1, 10 items for research question 2 and 12 items for research question 3). The instrument was structured into four-point response options of Strongly Agree (SA), Agree (A), Disagree (D) and Strongly Disagree (SD) with assigned weights of 4, 3, 2, and 1 respectively. The instrument was subjected to face validation by three experts. Two experts from Faculty of Agriculture, while one expert from Measurement and Evaluation Unit, all from Adeyemi Federal University of Education, Ondo City, Ondo State, Nigeria. Also, the reliability of the instrument was determined using Cronbach Alpha method. 30 copies of the validated instrument were administered to farmers in Edo State, Nigeria. The completed instruments were collected and analyzed to determine the reliability of the instruments for the study and the instrument yielded a reliability coefficient of 0.78. This showed that the instrument was reliable and could be effectively used to collect the desired data.

The instrument was administered and collected by the researcher with the help of three research assistants. A total of 660 copies of the questionnaire was administered to the farmers in the study area with the help of three research assistants. At the end, only 633 of the instruments were retrieved from the respondents and used for data analysis.

Data collected were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. Mean was used to answer the three research questions while standard deviation was used to determine how close or far the respondents were to the mean. The cutoff point of 2.50 was used for decision-making. The decision rule is that any item with a mean rating of 2.50 and above was accepted while any item with a mean value less than 2.50 was rejected. All the data analyses were carried out with the use of statistical package for Social Sciences (SPSS) 25.0 version.

Presentation of Results

Research Question 1: What are the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South West region of Nigeria? The result presented in Table 1 showed the mean responses and standard deviation of the respondents on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South-West region of Nigeria. The result indicated that all the 13items obtained mean responses above 2.50 cut of point indicating that the respondents (farmers) agreed that the items are the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in South West region of Nigeria. Also, the corresponding standard deviation for all the items ranged from 0.72 to 0.86, indicating that the respondents were very close to one another in their responses.

Research Question 2: What are the adaptive strategies adopted by farmers in South West region of Nigeria to mitigate the impact of climate change? Table 2 showed the mean responses and standard deviation analysis on the adaptive strategies adopted by farmers in South West region of Nigeria to mitigate the impact of climate change. The result revealed that 8 out of the 10 items had mean values ranging from 2.51 to 3.53 which is above the cut-off point of 2.50. This indicated that the respondents agreed that the eight items are the adaptive strategies adopted by farmers in South West region of Nigeria to mitigate the impact of climate change on agricultural production. Two items (2 and 4) had mean values lower than 2.50 indicating that the respondents disagreed that the two items are the adaptive strategies adopted by farmers in South West region of Nigeria to mitigate the impact of climate change. The corresponding who stated conservation agriculture can help mitigate the effects of climate change by reducing soil degradation and improving water retention (Adeleke & Ogunjimi, 2020) [2] . According to the authors, the practice involves using conservation tillage, crop rotation, and cover cropping to reduce soil erosion, improve soil health, and increase crop yields. Also, the finding on crop rotation and intercropping is in line with Ogunjimi and Adeleke (2020) [2] crop rotation and intercropping practices can help mitigate the effects of climate change by improving soil health, reducing soil degradation, and increasing crop resilience. Ogunjimi and Adeleke (2020) [2] further stated that rotating crops and planting multiple crops together can improve soil health, reduce pests and diseases, and increase crop yields. In addition, the finding on organic farming practice aligns with Ajetomobi and Abiodun (2019) [3] who opined that organic farming helps to mitigate the effects of climate change by reducing the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, improving soil health, and increasing crop resilience.

Conclusion

Climate change has significant economic impacts on agriculture and food security in South West, Nigeria. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are affecting agricultural productivity, leading to reduced crop yields, decreased livestock populations, and increased food prices. The study concluded that it is essential to develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in the South West, region of Nigeria.

Recommendations

References

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