Climate change and horticultural crop productivity: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies

Introduction

Climate change refers to long-term alterations in temperature, precipitation patterns, and overall climate variability driven by both natural processes and increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and industrial activities. These sustained changes are disrupting ecosystem functions across the globe, with agriculture being one of the most climate-sensitive sectors. Rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather eventsincluding heatwaves, droughts, floods, and erratic rainfalldirectly affect plant physiological processes and crop productivity (Muchie and Assefa, 2021; Wang et al., 2025) [2,4] . Horticultural crops, especially fruits and vegetables, are particularly vulnerable because of their specific requirements for flowering, pollination, fruit set, and quality development, all of which depend on stable temperature and moisture conditions (Pati et al., 2025) [5] . Even slight deviations in climatic cues can alter phenology and growth stages in perennial and high-value horticultural crops, leading to reduced yields and compromised fruit quality (Malhotra, 2017) [1] . Elevated temperatures can accelerate respiration and disrupt reproductive success, while irregular precipitation patterns can cause water stress or waterlogging, further impairing growth and development. Additionally, these climatic shifts exacerbate pest and disease pressures, creating additional stress for sensitive horticultural plants. Because fruit crops have narrow climatic thresholds for optimal performance, climate variability and extremes pose serious challenges to sustaining productivity, quality, and economic viability within horticultural systems under future climate scenarios (Bibi and Rahman, 2023) [3] .

Climate Change Impacts on Horticultural Crop Productivity 2.1. Temperature Stress and Phenology

Elevated temperatures strongly affect plant physiological processes, including photosynthesis, respiration, and reproductive development. Heat can denature key enzymes, reduce carbon fixation, and accelerate respiration, lowering the energy available for growth and yield (Mahajan et al., 2025) [6] . Reproductive stages are particularly sensitive, with high temperatures impairing pollen viability, fertilization, and causing flower drop, directly reducing fruit numbers (Kumar et al., 2025) [7] . In tomato, apples, and grapes, heat stress can reduce fruit set, accelerate phenology, shorten growing seasons, and diminish overall yield and quality (Castanares, 2025; Muchie and Assefa, 2021) [8,2] . High temperatures also trigger fruit cracking, poor coloration, and quality deterioration, while inducing oxidative stress and membrane instability (Do et al., 2024; Kumar et al., 2025) [9,7] . Overall, even moderate temperature increases can shorten developmental phases, lower crop yields, and compromise fruit quality in sensitive horticultural species (Mahajan et al., 2025) [6] .

Water Stress: Drought and Irrigation Challenges

Climate change is altering rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, reducing soil moisture and imposing water stress on plants. Under drought, stomatal closure conserves water but limits CO₂ uptake, reducing photosynthetic efficiency and growth (Huang and Jin, 2025) [11] . Reduced stomatal conductance slows carbon assimilation and metabolic activity, diminishing biomass and yield in many horticultural crops (Fahad et al., 2017) [13] . Water stress also disrupts leaf turgor and expansion, impairing overall plant vigor, while physiological and biochemical changes can reduce chlorophyll content and enzyme activity. Nutrient uptake is restricted due to limited root growth and reduced mass flow, lowering both yield and nutrient quality, with fruits and vegetables showing smaller size, lower sugar content, and compromised nutritional profiles (Naik et al., 2017) [14] . Drought further increases oxidative stress and alters hormonal balances, negatively affecting growth and performance (Lei et al., 2025) [12] . Overall, altered precipitation and increased drought frequency under climate change threaten stomatal function, photosynthesis, nutrient uptake, and the productivity and quality of horticultural crops (Cushman et al., 2022) [10] .

Elevated CO₂ and Crop Responses

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ can enhance photosynthesis and biomass by increasing carbon fixation and reducing stomatal conductance, particularly in C₃ crops under non-stress conditions (Dong et al., 2019) [18] . FACE experiments and meta-analyses report yield increases of ~18% in some C₃ species (Vanaja et al., 2024) [19] . In crops like tomato and strawberry, elevated CO₂ can also improve fruit yield, sugar content, and vitamin C levels (Doddrell et al., 2023) [16] . However, these benefits are often offset by concurrent stresses. Higher temperatures accelerate photorespiration, reduce enzyme efficiency, and shorten developmental phases. Reduced stomatal conductance can limit transpiration cooling under heat stress. Nutrient limitations, especially nitrogen, further constrain growth and yield responses (Dong et al., 2018) [17] . Meta-analyses indicate that while soluble sugars and antioxidants often increase, some nutrients such as protein, magnesium, iron, and zinc may decline. Combined heat, water, and nutrient stresses under climate change can therefore negate the "CO₂ fertilization effect," limiting productivity gains under real-world conditions (Rangaswamy et [15,21,20] .

Pest and Disease Pressure

Warming climates are expanding the geographic range of many pests and their disease vectors, allowing them to invade regions previously too cold and increasing the severity of infestations in horticultural systems. Rising temperatures often speed up pest development and reproduction, resulting in more generations per season and higher population pressures on vegetable and fruit crops. Studies report that warmer conditions can accelerate insect life cycles such as those of aphids and mite pests, increasing their abundance and crop damage (Ravuri et al., 2025) [24] . Climate change is also linked to greater spread and incidence of plant diseases through enhanced vector activity and extended pathogen survival. Additionally, higher temperatures and water stress can weaken plant immune responses and disrupt natural plant defences, making crops more susceptible to pest attack and disease (Teodoro-Paulo et al., 2025; Ghini et al., 2011) [26,23] . These climatic shifts also reduce the effectiveness of traditional pest management strategies, including biological control agents and some pesticides, as pests adapt and overwinter more successfully under milder conditions (Ma et al., 2021) [25] . Collectively, these changes intensify pest and disease pressures on horticultural systems, challenging sustainable crop protection (Haokip et al., 2020) [22] .

Source: Bibi and Rahman (2023) [3]

Quality and Nutritional Effects

Climate factors such as heat and water deficit not only reduce yield but also degrade fruit quality and nutritional density. Elevated temperatures and drought stress can alter sugar accumulation and pigment synthesis, leading to changes in flavour and reduced soluble sugar content under water deficit despite some varietal variation (Jiang et al., 2020) [31] . High temperatures have been shown to soften fruit texture and reduce firmness in raspberry, suggesting shorter shelf life and quality loss under future warming scenarios (Aguilar et al., 2025) [30] . Heat and erratic moisture availability also increase physiological disorders such as fruit cracking and surface defects in apples, which are more frequent under high temperature and limited irrigation (Do et al., 2024) [9] . Water stress and deficit irrigation influence the internal balance of soluble solids, potentially increasing sugar concentration but also elevating cracking risk through osmotic imbalance and high turgor pressure (Wu et al., 2025) [28] . Severe and prolonged drought generally lowers fruit size and can disrupt nutrient uptake, limiting accumulation of essential vitamins and minerals (Jyoti et al., 2025) [27] . Overall, heat and water stress under changing climate conditions compromise not just yield but sensory quality, texture, and nutritional attributes of fruits, challenging both production and marketability (Manzoor et al., 2024) [32] . [34,37] [36,35] . • Soil and water conservation measures to enhance resilience to variability (Ali, 2024; Kabato et al., 2025) [38,33] .

These practices help maintain productivity while reducing vulnerability to climate extremes.

Crop Diversification and Agroforestry

Diversification and integration of agroforestry systems boosts ecological stability, improves microclimates, and can enhance carbon sequestrationcontributing both adaptation and mitigation benefits (Bhandari et al., 2025; Colmenares et al., 2020) [39,40] .

Breeding for Climate Resilience

Traditional and modern breeding approaches are being used to develop cultivars tolerant to heat, drought, salinity, and flood stresses. Marker-assisted selection and genomic tools accelerate the development of climate-resilient varieties (Raya et al., 2025; Tyagi et al., 2024) [42,41] .

Decision Support and ICT Tools

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools, weather-based advisories, and decision support systems help farmers anticipate adverse conditions and adjust planting, irrigation, and harvesting schedules accordingly (Ramaraj et al., 2023; Chetri et al., 2024) [44,43] .

Protected Cultivation and Technical Innovations

Climate-controlled environments such as greenhouses and high tunnels help buffer adverse climatic effects, especially for highvalue vegetables like tomato, cucumber, and peppers, facilitating year-round production with enhanced stability (Dongre et al., 2025; Gude et al., 2022) [45,46] .

Mitigation Strategies 4.1. Carbon Sequestration and Soil Management

Horticultural soils can act as carbon sinks. Practices such as cover cropping, organic amendments, and reduced tillage improve soil carbon storage and reduce net GHG emissions (Jayara et al., 2023; Delate et al., 2010) [47,48] .

Energy-Efficient Infrastructure

Use of renewable energy (solar, wind) for water pumping, cooling, and greenhouse operations can lower carbon footprints while enhancing sustainability (Acosta-Silva et al., 2019; Espitia et al., 2024) [49,50] .

Landscape-Level Planning

Integrating trees, hedgerows, and diversified perennial plantings in horticultural landscapes increases carbon storage and provides microclimatic buffering for crops (Kumara et al., 2023; Rathore et al., 2022) [51,53] .

Policy and Incentives

Policymaking that supports climate-friendly practicesthrough subsidies for climate-smart technologies, crop insurance, and research fundingencourages rapid adoption of mitigation strategies across horticulture. [54,52] .

Case Studies and Examples 6.1. Mediterranean Greenhouse Horticulture

In Mediterranean regions, greenhouses face rising temperatures and higher vapor pressure deficits (VPD), increasing water and energy needs. Adaptive strategies include precision irrigation, structural retrofitting, and renewable energy integration (Fanourakis et al., 2025) [55] .

Crop Adaptation in India

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