Analyzing spatio-temporal pattern in area of crops under Shivamogga district of Karnataka

Introduction

Agriculture remains the backbone of rural livelihoods and socio-economic stability, particularly in developing economies such as India, where nearly 42 per cent of the workforce is engaged in the sector (Economic Survey, 2023-24). However, Indian agriculture is increasingly facing challenges such as land degradation, groundwater depletion, monoculture dependence, and climate-induced risks of droughts and floods (FAO, 2021; Chand et al., 2007) [1,4] . In response, crop diversification has emerged as a critical strategy to enhance productivity, ensure ecological balance, and build resilience against risks associated with monocropping (Joshi et al., 2004; Pingali, 2012) [8,15] . At the regional scale, spatio-temporal analysis of cropping patterns provides insights into how agricultural systems adapt to ecological, market and policy dynamics. Studies across India and beyond highlight that diversification has increasingly moved away from subsistence cereals toward high-value crops such as fruits, vegetables, pulses and oilseeds (Kumar & Gupta, 2015; Nagpure et al., 2017; Mithiya et al., 2018) [11,13,14] . Empirical analyses also demonstrate wide inter-regional variations: for instance, Gadag district of Karnataka recorded higher diversification in vegetables and pulses compared to cereals and oilseeds (Basavaraj et al., 2016) [3] , while Kota in Rajasthan exhibited complete diversification over three decades, unlike Jaisalmer which showed initial specialization (Meena et al., 2016) [12] . Similar findings from Andhra Pradesh (Suseela & Chandrasekaran, 2016) [20] , Telangana (Kamraju et al., 2017) [9] , and Himachal Pradesh (Sharma, 2019; Sharma & Kumar, 2019) [18] underscore the role of local agro-ecological conditions and infrastructural support in shaping cropping patterns. In Karnataka, crop diversification has shown a positive trend at the state level, though regional disparities persist. Districts such as Belagavi and Dharwad rank high in diversification, while Shivamogga remains among the lowdiversity districts (Felix & Ramappa, 2023) [7] . Yet, the district holds significant agricultural importance due to its unique mix of Malnad and semi-Malnad zones, perennial rivers like the Tunga and Bhadra, and varied soil types supporting a wide range of crops (Directorate of Economics and Statistics, 2022) [5] . Historically dominated by paddy, Shivamogga has in recent decades witnessed a gradual shift toward commercial and horticultural crops such as arecanut, maize, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables, driven by better market opportunities, climatic adaptability, and supportive state initiatives. Therefore, analyzing the spatio-temporal patterns in the area under crops in Shivamogga district is essential to trace agricultural transitions, assess the drivers behind diversification and evaluate implications for food security, income stability and sustainable land use. This study builds upon the existing body of literature on crop diversification in India (Khorajiya et al., 2015; Eswaran & Murugan, 2019; Tiwari et al., 2024) [10,6,24] while situating the analysis within the specific agro-climatic and socio-economic context of Shivamogga.

Methodology

The study was conducted in Shivamogga district, located in www.extensionjournal.com the Malnad region of Karnataka, India. The district comprises seven taluks: Bhadravathi, Hosanagara, Sagara, Shikaripura, Shivamogga, Soraba, and Tirthahalli. To analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of crop diversification, secondary time-series data on the area under major crops was collected for each taluk. The data spans a 20-year period from 2003-04 to 2022-23 and was sourced from the district statistical office, Shivamogga. The collected data was analyzed using diversification indices and visualization techniques to assess both spatial and temporal trends.

Crop Diversification Indices

Two widely recognized indices were employed to quantify the extent of crop diversification:

Entropy index (EI)

The Entropy index is a direct measure of diversification having a logarithmic character.

Where, P i represents acreage proportion of the i th crop in total cropped area The Entropy index increases with an increase in diversification. The Entropy index approaches zero when the farm is specialized and there is perfect specialization, i.e., P i equals to one and takes a maximum value when there is perfect diversification. The upper limit of the Entropy Index is determined by the base chosen for taking logarithms and the number of crops. The upper value of the index can exceed one, when the number of total crops is higher than the value of the logarithm's base, and it is less than one when the number of crops is lower than the base of logarithm.

Herfindahl Index (HI)

It was for the first time used by Theil (1967) [22] . Herfindahl index (HI) is the sum of square of the acreage proportion of each crop in the total cropped area.

Where, P i represents acreage proportion of the i th crop in total cropped area With an increase in diversification, the sum of square of the proportion of activities decreases, so also the indices (HI). The Herfindahl index takes a value of one when there is complete specialization and approaches zero as N gets large, i.e. if diversification is perfect.

Spatio-temporal Visualization

• Heatmaps were used to provide a clear and intuitive visualization of the spatial patterns of crop diversification. The heatmaps display the values of the Entropy and Herfindahl indices across all seven taluks for the entire time period, using a color gradient to represent the intensity of diversification or concentration. This allows for an immediate comparison of diversification levels between taluks and highlights spatial clusters of high or low diversity at different points in time. • Line graphs were generated to visualize the trends of the EI and HI for each taluk over the 20-year study period. This helps illustrate the dynamic changes, volatility, and long-term trajectory of diversification over time.

Results and Discussion

Spatial variation in crop diversification

The analysis of the Entropy Index (EI) and Herfindahl Index (HI) over two decades (2003-04 to 2022-23) reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in crop diversification across Shivamogga district. The findings show a clear divergence, with some taluks rapidly specializing while others successfully diversified. The Table 3 illustrate this spatial variation over the two-decade period.

Taluks shifting towards crop specialization

Bhadravathi and Shivamogga taluks, despite historically high diversity, show a clear trend towards specialization, indicating a contraction of their crop portfolios. Bhadravathi recorded the most dramatic shift, with the Entropy Index (EI) dropping significantly (from 1.57 to 1.29) and the Herfindahl Index (HI) rising sharply (from 0.27 to 0.38).

The detailed data confirms the steepest decline in diversity (-0.79 change in EI). Shivamogga followed a similar, though less severe, trajectory, with the EI declining (from 1.69 to 1.57) and the HI increasing (from 0.26 to 0.27). This trend toward crop concentration in these two taluks aligns with observations in other specialized agricultural regions. [10] highlighted that the dominance of one or two staple crops (like maize in their study region) constrains overall diversification. The high concentration, especially in Bhadravathi, may be attributed to the expansion of highly remunerative cash or perennial crops (e.g., arecanut), echoing the overall finding by Felix and Ramappa (2023) [7] that Shivamogga is a low-diversity district within Karnataka. [3] in Gadag district, where higher growth rates in fruits, vegetables, and pulses (7%-11%) contributed significantly to diversification. The reduction in the Herfindahl Index (HI) in these taluks indicates a move away from the dominance of a few crops, similar to the trend observed by Nagpure et al. (2017) [14] in Western Vidarbha, where declining cereal areas were replaced by high-value alternatives like soybean and sugarcane. The results of Soraba's significant diversification align with the general trend noted by Kumar and Gupta (2015) [11] of increasing Simpson Index values nationwide, indicating a shift toward commercial and high-value agriculture. [20] in Andhra Pradesh, where diversification remained limited due to the continued dominance of major crops like paddy and groundnut. Similarly, Sharma and Kumar (2019) [18] found that cereal-based farming systems exhibited the least diversification, suggesting that Thirthahalli's structure is heavily constrained by the dominance of traditional or perennial staples. The stability observed in Shikaripura is consistent with the finding that regional disparities in India persist, with some zones stagnating while others diversify rapidly (Barik and Bedamatta, 2024) [2] .

Taluks shifting towards crop diversification

Taluks with stable or constrained diversification

Temporal variation in crop diversification

The temporal analysis of the Entropy Index (EI) and Herfindahl Index (HI) from 2003-04 to 2022-23 reveals that the district's diversification trajectory was not linear.

Instead, it was characterized by distinct phases of stability, volatility, and recent re-specialization. The line graphs (Figure 1 and Figure 2) illustrate these dynamic shifts over the two-decade period. However, they both began a gradual but steady decline in diversification (increase in HI) during this phase. In contrast, Thirthahalli, Soraba and Hosanagara started with low diversification (high HI values around 0.45-0.50) and maintained this specialized structure with minor fluctuations. This initial phase established the baseline from which more dramatic shifts would later occur, with some taluks already on a path toward concentration while others maintained their specialized agricultural systems. This early stability in specialized taluks like Thirthahalli reflects patterns observed in regions dominated by staple or perennial crops, where change is often slow. The gradual trend towards specialization in initially diverse taluks like Shivamogga and Bhadravathi could signify an early response to market signals favouring specific remunerative crops, a precursor to the nationwide shifts toward high-value agriculture noted by Kumar and Gupta (2015) [11] .

Mid-period (2012-13 to 2019-20): a period of high volatility and divergence

This period was the most dynamic, characterized by significant fluctuations and a clear divergence in the diversification pathways of different taluks. Soraba demonstrated a remarkable surge in diversification, with its EI climbing steadily and peaking around 2020-21, while its HI correspondingly dropped to its lowest point. This indicates a successful broadening of its crop base. Sagara and Hosanagara also showed a consistent, positive trend toward diversification during these years. Conversely, Bhadravathi experienced extreme volatility, with its HI value swinging sharply, indicating rapid shifts between diversification and specialization. Shivamogga's diversity continued its steady decline. This divergence suggests that taluks were responding differently to external drivers. Some successfully adopted a wider variety of crops, while others either intensified their focus on fewer crops or struggled to find a stable cropping pattern. The pronounced diversification in Soraba, Sagara, and Hosanagara aligns with findings from Nagpure et al. (2017) [14] and Sharma (2019) [18] , who documented shifts from traditional cereals to a mix of high-value crops driven by profitability. The volatility seen in Bhadravathi could be attributed to factors like price fluctuations in commercial crops and water availability, which Sathyapriya and Asokhan (2019) [17] identified as key influencers forcing farmers to frequently alter their cropping choices.

Recent period (2020-21 to 2022-23): an emerging trend towards re-specialization

The final years of the study reveal a concerning trend: a reversal towards specialization in several taluks that had previously been diversifying. After reaching peak diversity around 2020-21, taluks like Soraba, Sagara, and Hosanagara show a distinct downturn in their EI values and an uptick in their HI values in the last two years. Bhadravathi and Shivamogga continued their long-term trend toward specialization, with Bhadravathi recording its lowest diversity (highest HI) in the final year. Only Thirthahalli showed a marginal improvement, moving away slightly from its highly specialized base, but it remained the least diversified taluk overall. This recent trend towards re-specialization across multiple taluks is a critical finding and resonates with the research by Tiwari et al. (2024) [24] , who observed a gradual but consistent decline in crop diversification in Chhattisgarh, indicating a growing concentration on fewer crops. This pattern suggests that despite earlier gains, regional agriculture may be consolidating around a few highly profitable or resilient crops, potentially increasing vulnerability to market or climate shocks. It also reflects the regional imbalances noted by Barik and Bedamatta (2024) [2] , where certain areas trend towards specialization even amidst national diversification efforts. www.extensionjournal.com

Conclusion

This study undertook a spatio-temporal analysis of crop diversification in Shivamogga district from 2003-04 to 2022-23, utilizing the Entropy Index (EI) and Herfindahl Index (HI) to map the changing agricultural landscape. The findings reveal that crop diversification in the district is not a uniform or linear process but a highly dynamic and spatially heterogeneous phenomenon, marked by divergent pathways across its taluks and distinct temporal phases. Spatially, the analysis highlights a clear polarization. Taluks like Bhadravathi and Shivamogga are trending towards crop specialization, driven likely by the expansion of remunerative commercial crops. In sharp contrast, taluks such as Soraba, Sagara, and Hosanagara have successfully embraced diversification, broadening their crop portfolios. Meanwhile, Thirthahalli remains locked in a state of high specialization, indicating the presence of structural constraints that limit agricultural change. Temporally, the two-decade period was characterized by three distinct phases: an initial period of relative stability, followed by a mid-period of high volatility and divergence, and culminating in a recent, concerning trend of respecialization across several taluks in the last few years. This recent reversal suggests that the gains from diversification may be fragile and susceptible to prevailing market or environmental pressures, potentially increasing the vulnerability of the district's farming systems. The implications of these findings are significant for regional agricultural planning. The wide disparity between taluks underscores the need for decentralized and contextspecific policy interventions rather than a "one-size-fits-all" approach. For specializing taluks, policies should focus on sustainable intensification and risk management, while for diversifying taluks, strengthening market linkages and postharvest infrastructure for high-value crops is crucial. Future research should focus on identifying the specific socioeconomic and agro-ecological drivers behind these observed patterns through primary data collection and examining the long-term impacts of these cropping system shifts on farm income, food security, and environmental sustainability.

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