Growth and instability in Indian groundnut: An analysis of area, production, yield and exports

Introduction

Groundnut, a major oilseed crop is known as the 'King' of oilseeds and is cultivated worldwide. It is also referred to as peanut or monkey nut (Bhusanar et al., 2023) [2] . As one of the most important food and cash crops in India, groundnut plays a crucial role in addressing the country's edible oil deficit while serving as an essential source of protein (Sunil and Singh, 2021) [14] .

Groundnut Cultivation

In 2022, groundnut was cultivated on 30536 thousand hectares worldwide, producing 54.24 million tonnes. India ranked first in cultivated area with an 18.68 per cent share of the world acreage followed by China (14.54%) and Nigeria (11.13%). In terms of production, China was the leading producer contributing 33.79 per cent of the world's total production followed by India (18.68%). Asian countries like India and China collectively contribute over 50 per cent of the world's groundnut production (FAOSTAT, 2023a) [8] . In 2021-22, area under groundnut cultivation in India was 5.75 million hectares with a production of 10.11 million tonnes. Gujarat ranked first among Indian states with a 44.41 per cent share of production followed by Rajasthan (16.81%) and Tamil Nadu (9.39%) (DES, 2023).

Groundnut Exports

In 2022, India ranked second globally in both groundnut production and exports. Argentina was the leading exporter with exports of 630 thousand tonnes in 2022, a significant increase from 125.06 thousand tonnes in 2018. India exported 579.29 thousand tonnes in 2022 (FAOSTAT, 2023b) [9] . Indonesia and Vietnam emerged as key destination markets for Indian groundnuts, collectively representing over 57 per cent of India's total groundnut exports in 2022 (FAOSTAT, 2023b) [9] .

Compound annual growth rate

The compound growth rates of major groundnut producing states were measured by fitting an exponential function for the variables viz., area, production and yield while India as a whole was considered to analyse the compound growth rate of export quantity and export values.

Y = a btUt

Where

𝐭 -(𝐍)

Then, the per cent compound growth rate (g) was calculated by using the relationship g = {antilog of (logb) -1} x 100

Where; g = Compound growth rate per annum in per cent. Student't' test was used to determine the significance of the growth rates obtained for which the following formulation was employed.

t = Log b/SE (Log b)

The calculated 't' values, from equation (5), were compared with the table 't' values and the significance was tested for 1 and 5 per cent probability levels.

Cuddy Della Valle index

Instability for area, production, yield, export quantity and export value were calculated using the coefficient of variation and Cuddy Della Valle Index. Cuddy Della Valle Index was calculated as follows:

Where, CV= Coefficient of variation (ϭ /𝑋̅ ) 𝑅̅ 2= Adjusted coefficient of multiple determination.

Result and Discussion

Growth Rates in Groundnut Area, Production and Yield Table 1 represents the compound growth rates of area, production and yield of major groundnut producing states as well India as whole for the overall period of 1992-93 to 2021-22 which were further divided into three different sub periods. During period-I (1992-93 to 2001-02), the compound growth rates of area for groundnut crop were found negative in most states, except West Bengal (7.56%). Most other major states experienced negative growth with Tamil Nadu showing the steepest decline in area (-6.09%) followed by Andhra Pradesh (-3.63%) and Maharashtra (-3.81%). In terms of production only West Bengal and Rajasthan showed the positive and significant growth rate of 10.84 per cent and 2.41 per cent respectively. In terms of yield West Bengal showed highest growth rate of 3.05 per cent followed by Rajasthan 2.80 per cent. During Period-II (2002-03 to 2011-12), Rajasthan emerged as the leading state with significant positive growth in area (5.58%), production (11.89%) and yield (5.98%). Gujarat showed negative area growth (-1.73%) but showed positive growth in production (3.66%) and yield (5.49%). In terms of yield highest positive growth was observed by Tamil Nadu (6.53%) despite negative growth in its area (-4.75). At all India level it showed improvement compared to Period-I with production growth of 2.48 per cent despite continued negative area growth (-1.41%). In Period-III (2012-13 to 2021-22), highest growth in area (8.47%) and production (11.34%) was observed in Rajasthan followed by Gujarat 3.89 per cent in area and 10.85 per cent in production. Gujarat also showed highest growth rate in terms of yield (6.70%). During the overall study period (1992-93 to 2021-22), Rajasthan showed significant positive growth in area (4.30%), production (8.19%) and yield (3.73%). West Bengal also showed positive growth in area (4.93%) and production (8.02%) and yield (2.94%). Gujarat despite negative area growth (-0.55%) showed positive production growth (3.55%) and highest growth in yield (4.12%) compare to other states in this period. It is observed from the table that groundnut at the whole India level during the overall study period showed a negative growth in area (-1.72%) while positive growth in production (0.54%) and yield (2.30%). The growth rate in production was increased from Period-I (-2.89%) to Period-III (5.60%), similarly growth rate in yield also increased from Period-I (0.02%) to Period-III (4.90%).

However, despite Rajasthan's positive growth in area and production during Period-III and the overall study period, its total groundnut cultivation remained significantly lower than that of Gujarat. In 2021-22, Rajasthan had 795.9 thousand hectares under cultivation and produced 1696.8 thousand tonnes whereas Gujarat's area was more than double (1987.5 thousand hectares) with production (4489.6 thousand tonnes). Similarly, West Bengal showed second highest growth rate in production after Rajasthan but produced only 188.9 thousand tonnes in 2021-22. This highlights that while some states showed high growth rates their overall contribution to national production remained relatively small. The present study findings are in line with Senthilnathan et al. (2023) [13] who found during their sub-study period (2000-01 to 2021-22) and overall study period (1950-51 to 2021-22) a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in area cultivated with groundnuts. They attributed this decline primarily to a significant decrease in the area under cultivation while noting that yield effects accounted for 79 per cent of the change in production, contrasting sharply with the mere 7.76 per cent contribution from area changes. Similarly, Suthar et al. (2024) [15] analysed growth and instability in groundnut production from 2002-03 to 2019-20 across major producing states. Their findings indicated a negative CAGR in groundnut area in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. In Gujarat, groundnut area decline at a rate of 1.564 per cent per annum with a low instability rate of 9.690 per cent. Tamil Nadu experienced an even steeper decline at 4.109 per cent per annum while Andhra Pradesh registered significant decreases in both area (5.540%) and production (4.289%). The authors noted that extreme weather events such as cyclones and droughts negatively impacted groundnut production. Kolar et al. (2020) [10] also found similar result on their study of examining growth and instability in major producing states from 1995-96 to 2017-18. They reported negative growth in groundnut area across Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. In Karnataka, the shift of crop area towards cash crops like sugarcane and cotton was identified as a key reason for decreased groundnut cultivation, compounded by droughts and insufficient monsoon rains that adversely affected oilseed production. Paled et al. (2024) [12] also found a declining trend in groundnut area across major producing states during their study period from 1996-97 to 2020-21. They noted a shift in cropping patterns away from oilseeds like groundnut towards more commercially viable crops such as soybean and cotton due to higher profitability. Their analysis revealed that during this period groundnut area declined significantly at a CAGR of 1.70 per cent, attributing this trend to various biotic and abiotic constraints alongside competition from other crops. ). Similarly, Indonesia restricted imports from India after detecting aflatoxins in consignments and mandated additional certification for pesticide residues, increasing the cost per container (BS, 2016b) [6] . The European Union and Malaysia also tightened regulations to control aflatoxin levels in imported groundnuts (BS, 2014b) [4] . The frequent rejections of shipments and import bans imposed by various countries due to poor quality, particularly high levels of aflatoxins, have contributed to the high fluctuations in India's groundnut exports. These challenges highlighted the need for greater attention to quality control measures to harness the full export potential of Indian groundnuts. Addressing these quality issues could help stabilize export volumes and improve India's competitiveness in the global groundnut market (AAU, 2020). Meghna et at. (2023) [1,11] concluded similar views emphasizing the importance of quality measures to achieve higher returns in international markets.

Conclusion

The study reveals that Groundnut showed a negative growth rate in area but positive growth in production and yield at the national level. States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh exhibited negative growth in both area and production. While Gujarat and Rajasthan achieved higher yield growth, production instability remained high, particularly in Gujarat. This highlights the need to bridge significant yield gap between states like Karnataka and Gujarat and expand the area under cultivation by including non-traditional areas in order to stabilize and enhance groundnut production. Indian groundnut exports to the world experienced positive growth rates in both quantity and value during the study period. Bangladesh showed the highest growth in both quantity and value. However, exports to countries like Malaysia, Russia and Thailand declined due to quality concerns, particularly aflatoxin contamination. Among India's export destinations China recorded the highest instability in groundnut exports. Thus, there is a need to strengthen quality control mechanisms to align with importing countries standards to maintain India's reputation as a reliable exporter and enhance competitiveness in global market.

References

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