Trends and dynamics in price behavior of major oilseeds in Chhattisgarh

Introduction

Agriculture continues to serve as the backbone of the Indian economy, employing a substantial share of the workforce and contributing significantly to the nation's Gross Value Added (GVA). Within this sector, oilseeds hold a special place as they provide edible oils, feed, and raw materials for agro-based industries, while also ensuring nutritional security. Among the oilseeds, groundnut and soybean are particularly important for both India and Chhattisgarh. India ranks among the largest producers of these crops, yet the rising demand for edible oils often surpasses domestic supply, leading to heavy dependence on imports. This gap highlights the need to enhance oilseed productivity and stabilize market performance at the state level. In Chhattisgarh, favorable agro-climatic conditions and a sizable share of cultivated area make groundnut and soybean vital to the state's oilseed basket. Groundnut is widely grown for its dual role as a food and oilseed crop, valued for edible oil and protein content. Soybean, on the other hand, has emerged as a dominant kharif crop, contributing not only to edible oil production but also to the poultry and livestock feed industry. Together, these crops are cultivated extensively in districts such as Jashpur, Kabirdham, and Rajnandgaon, where they form a crucial source of farm income. Despite their importance, groundnut and soybean farmers face challenges such as fluctuating yields, unstable market prices, and climatic variability, which constrain profitability and sustainability. Analyzing the long-term behaviour of arrivals and prices, along with the growth performance of area, production, and productivity, is therefore essential for understanding the dynamics of these crops. By drawing on secondary data covering 15 years (2008-2023) for area and production, and 12 years (2013-2024) for arrivals and prices, the present study seeks to provide insights that can guide policy interventions, extension strategies, and resource management to improve oilseed development in Chhattisgarh.

Methodology

The present study is entirely based on secondary data collected from reliable government sources. Time series data for a period of 15 years (2008-2023) was used for analyzing the area, production, and productivity of major www.extensionjournal.com oilseed crops in Chhattisgarh. Similarly, data on market arrivals and prices were obtained for 12 years (2013-2024). The major oilseeds selected for this study include soybean and groundnut, identified based on their extensive cultivation across the state. Districts with the highest area under each of these crops were purposively selected for detailed analysis. Data were sourced from the Directorate of Agriculture, Indrawati Bhawan, Naya Raipur, and the Agricultural Marketing Information Network (AGMARKNET), ensuring accuracy and consistency across variables and periods. For examining the trends in market arrivals and prices, a time series analysis was carried out using both the moving average method and linear regression. The moving average technique helped smooth short-term fluctuations and highlight underlying trends. The performance of a variable over time can be assessed using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), which reflects its historical growth trend. In economic research, growth analysis is a common method used to examine the long-term behavior of specific variables. It provides a clear picture of how a variable has evolved over a given period and serves as a valuable tool for informing policy decisions. In this study, the growth rates of area, production, and productivity of various crops over 15 years were estimated using an exponential growth function of the following form: LGR showed an average annual decrease of -6.44%. However, the corresponding t-value of -0.66 was statistically non-significant, suggesting that the downward pattern may be largely due to year-to-year fluctuations rather than a persistent long-term decline. In contrast, soybean prices in Kabirdham recorded a significant upward trend. The regression equation (Y=3774.93+192.12X) reflected a positive slope (b=192.12), with prices rising from ₹3313.50 in 2013 to ₹5694.50 in 2022. Trend values also increased from ₹ 2,718.28 in 2013 to ₹ 4,831.58 in 2024. The LGR confirmed an average annual price growth of 5.09%, while the t-value of 3.07, significant at the 1% level, validated the statistical robustness of this positive trend.

= a + bt+

Growth in area, production and productivity of Groundnut

The analysis showed that over the years, the area under groundnut cultivation in Chhattisgarh increased notably from 26.38 thousand hectares in 2008 to 49.84 thousand hectares in 2023. This expansion reflects growing interest in the crop over time. The area grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.45 percent per annum, which was found to be significant at the 1% level of probability (p = 0.005). This suggests a consistent and meaningful rise in the land allocated for groundnut cultivation during the study period.

Similarly, groundnut production recorded a steady increase, rising from 32.94 thousand metric tonnes in 2008 to 56.73 thousand metric tonnes in 2023. The production grew at a CAGR of 4.74 percent per annum, which was also significant at the 1% level of probability (p = 0.006). This indicates that not only was the area under cultivation expanding, but the overall output of groundnuts also improved substantially.

In contrast, the productivity trend presented a slight decline over the period. The productivity of groundnut dropped from 1353 kg/ha in 2008 to 1138 kg/ha in 2023, with a very minimal CAGR of 0.08 percent per annum, which was not significant (p = 0.908). This indicates that although area and production increased significantly, yield improvements per hectare remained stagnant, signalling a need for interventions focused on productivity enhancement.

Growth in area, production and productivity of Soyabean

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of soybean in terms of area, production and productivity for the period 2008 to 2023 in Chhattisgarh is presented in table 3.2 and depicted in figure 10. Over this period, the area under soybean cultivation decreased from 81.76 thousand hectares in 2008 to 37.74 thousand hectares in 2023, with a negative CAGR of -5.25 per cent. The p-value was 0.001699 and found to be the decline in area statistically significant at the 1% level of probability. Similarly, soybean production showed a downward trend, decreasing from 79.86 thousand metric tonnes in the base year to 41.27 thousand metric tonnes in 2023. The CAGR for production was found to be -6.31 per cent and was also highly significant at the 1% level of probability(p-value = www.extensionjournal.com 0.005647). On the other hand, the productivity of soybeans increased marginally over the years from 977 kg/ha in 2008 to 1094 kg/ha in 2023.The CAGR of productivity of soybean was -1.12 per cent and found to be not significant(p-value-0.626515). This indicates that the decline in productivity of soyabean over time is due to random variations. ). However, productivity exhibited no meaningful growth, dropping slightly from 1353 kg/ha to 1138 kg/ha, with a negligible CAGR of 0.08% (p = 0.908, NS). This indicates that while groundnut is expanding in cultivated area and total output, yield per hectare has remained stagnant, pointing towards the need for technological and management interventions. • Soybean exhibited a declining growth performance across all parameters. The area under soybean cultivation contracted sharply at -5.25% CAGR, while production recorded a steeper decline of -6.31%, both significant at the 1% level. Productivity also registered a marginal negative growth of -1.12%, though statistically insignificant. These findings suggest that soybean production in Chhattisgarh is under increasing stress, with reductions in area and production driven by factors such as climatic variability, declining

Acknowledgement

www.extensionjournal.com profitability, and competition from alternative crops like paddy and maize. The stagnation in productivity further reflects the lack of technological advancement and resource-use efficiency in soybean cultivation.

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