Growth and instability of area, production and productivity of millets in India

Introduction

Millets, encompassing a diverse group of small-seeded cereals within the Gramineae family, have been cultivated in India for millennia. These crops, including pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), finger millet (Eleusine coracana), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), and various minor millets such as foxtail millet (Setaria italica) and kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum), are uniquely adapted to India's semi-arid regions due to their resilience to drought and poor soil conditions. Historically, millets served as a dietary staple across the subcontinent, with evidence of their cultivation dating back to the Indus Valley Civilization. However, the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s shifted agricultural focus toward high-yielding rice and wheat varieties, resulting in a significant decline in millet production and consumption. In recent years, millets have regained prominence due to their nutritional superiority and capacity to address contemporary challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, and malnutrition. Rich in proteins, dietary fibers, vitamins, and minerals, millets offer a gluten-free alternative that appeals to health-conscious consumers. Their low water and input requirements further enhance their appeal as a sustainable crop amid increasing environmental variability. This resurgence is reinforced by national and international efforts, including India's promotion of millets as "nutri-cereals" and the United Nations' declaration of 2023 as the International Year of Millets, highlighting their global significance.

Despite these advancements, a detailed understanding of millet cultivation dynamics remains essential for shaping effective agricultural policies and ensuring sustainable production. This study focuses on estimating the growth and instability in the area under millet cultivation, production levels, and productivity in India over the period from 2000 to 2021. Utilizing time-series data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India, we apply analytical tools such as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to evaluate growth trends and the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) to assess instability. These analyses aim to uncover patterns that inform strategies for stabilizing millet production and enhancing its contribution to food security. The significance of this research lies in its potential to guide policymakers and stakeholders. By identifying trends and instabilities in millet cultivation, the study provides insights into sustainable agricultural practices, supports food security in millet-dependent regions, and bolsters the economic resilience of farmers. This introduction sets the stage for a comprehensive analysis of India's millet sector, emphasizing its critical role in the nation's agricultural and nutritional landscape.

Methodology

The aim of any specific investigation is to draw the useful conclusions in the light of the objectives of the study. To arrive at the conclusions, it is essential for the investigators to adopt appropriate methods and procedures. Keeping this in view, this section was devoted to explain the methodology adopted to fulfil the objectives, under study. It deals with the procedure used for the selection of sample, method of data collection, type of data collected and sources of data. Analytical procedures used to get the results as per the objectives of the study. It includes,  Selection of commodity  Data collection  Analysis of data  Analytical tools and technique

Selection of Commodity

Many agricultural commodities are commonly exported from India to other countries. Cereals, Jaggery, pulses, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, livestock products such as milk and milk products, meat products and so on are examples. Millet was purposefully chosen for this study due to its importance among sugar products in India. India is one of the largest producers as well as exporters of Millet in the world.

Data Collection

The nature of data for study is mainly based on secondary sources. The time series data was collected for 20 years from the year 2003-04 to 2022-23. The data on export area, production, productivity, quantity and value were collected from the Directorate of General Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Government of India, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and National Agricultural Processed Food Product Export Development Authority (APEDA).

Analysis of Data

The data so compiled was processed using statistical and analytical tools to arrive at desired conclusions.

Analytical Tools and Techniques

According to the objectives the following different analytical tools and techniques were used in the study.  Tabular analysis  Growth analysis  Instability analysis  Coppock's instability indices

Tabular Analysis

For meaningful interpretation of data, appropriate per centages (%) and averages were work out and presented in the form of tables.

Growth Analysis Compound growth rate

The compound growth rates in area, production, productivity of sugarcane, country wise exported quantity of Indian millet from India will be worked out by using an exponential form of equation.

Instability analysis (a) Coefficient of Variation (CV)

In order to study the variability in the time series data, coefficient of variation (CV) will be used as an index of instability. Wherever the trend coefficients of the series will be found significant, the variation around the trend rather than the variation around the mean (CV) will be used to measure the instability as an index of instability.

Results and Discussion

India stands as the leading global producer of millets, cultivating a diverse range that includes pearl millet, finger millet and foxtail millet. These grains have held dietary significance since ancient times and even today, their cultivation and processing remain deeply rooted in India's traditional agricultural practices.

The millet sector holds a crucial position within the dryland farming economy, being highly labour-intensive and offering livelihoods to millions of small and marginal farmers, particularly in drought-prone and semi-arid regions. Globally, nations such as Nigeria, China, Niger, Mali, Sudan, Ethiopia and Burkina Faso also contribute significantly to millet production.

The data for this study were collected from multiple credible sources and were systematically analysed and interpreted to align with the objectives and importance of the research topic.

The results of study are presented and discussed in this chapter in line with objective and methodology of the study under the following sub-headings.

Growth and instability of area, production and productivity of Indian millets 3.1.1 Changes in state wise area under Indian millets

The per cent share in area under millets of 10 major milletgrowing states was observed in the Table 1. The figures given in the table showed a significant decrease in the area to millet production in India, from 139.1 lakh hectares in 2003-04 to 126.98 lakh hectares in 2022-23, representing an overall decrease of (-8.71%) at the national level. (2023) [13] and Gyawali et al. (2021) [5] . On the other hand, Maharashtra and Karnataka, both historically important producers, witnessed major declines. Maharashtra's production decreased by (-40.66%), from 32 lakh tonnes (20.65%) to 18.99 lakh tonnes (10.96%), while Karnataka had a (-7.59%) l, decreasing from 22 to 20.33 lakh tonnes. States such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh had minor changes Tamil Nadu experienced a (10%) decrease, while Andhra Pradesh saw a (7.43%) growth, retaining their national output share. Uttarakhand, despite its tiny overall contribution, saw the biggest percentage growth at (340%), rising from 0.4 to 1.76 lakh tonnes. Overall, the data show a favorable national trend in millet production, with several states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana, emerging as highgrowth areas. In contrast, the declining output in key states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka warrants attention. Similar trends of rising production despite area shrinkage were noted by Kumar et al. (2024) [7] and Jainuddin et al. (2023) [6] .

Changes in state wise production of Indian Millets.

Change in state wise productivity of Indian millets.

It Table 3 that the presented share for productivity of millets of 10 major millet-growing states. (2021) [2] and Dharshini et al. (2024) [3] .

Growth rates in area, production and productivity of Indian millets

The information on growth rates in area, production and productivity of Indian millets in the country during 2003-04 to 2022-23 is was presented in The CAGR for production was (0.5%), indicating a moderate and consistent increase over time. A CV of (9.23%) shows moderate variability. This suggests that productivity or yield per hectare has increased. Yield, measured in kilogrammes per hectare, has improved the most significantly over the research period. It climbed from 1115 Kg/ha in 2003-04 to 1364 Kg/ha in 2022-23, exhibiting significant growth over the last five years. The yield increase at a CAGR of (0.86%) which was highest among the three parameters area, production and productivity. However, the CV for yield was very high at (77.45%), indicating considerable changes from year to year. These differences can be attributable to meteorological conditions, pest and disease outbreaks and uneven adoption of sophisticated agricultural practices among regions. Similar observations were made by Dudhat et al. (2023) [4] and Mourya et al. (2024) [9] , indicating a nationwide pattern of declining area but improving productivity. Overall, the patterns point to a structural change towards higher productivity, with output increases driven mostly by improved yields rather than an increase in cultivated land. Therefore Figure 1

Growth rates in area, production and productivity of major Indian millets growing states in India

The annual compound growth rates in area, production and productivity of millets in the major 10 millet-growing states and the country were estimated and reported in Table 5 for the 20 years from 2003-04 to 2022-23. During the last 20 years, the area under millets in India has declined at a rate of (-0.35%) year with a 1 per cent level of significance. The annual compound growth rate in area under millets in India throughout the time was found to be significant. The state-wise picture of changes in area under millets revealed that at the overall level, the annual growth rates in the area under millet cultivation were -1.59% per annum in Uttar Pradesh (significant at 5% level), (-1.01%) per annum in Madhya Pradesh (non-significant) and (-3.5%) per annum in Uttarakhand (significant at 1% level). This indicates that the decline in millet area was statistically significant in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, while the decline in area in Madhya Pradesh was not statistically significant. "Growth rates in area under millets in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand were (-1.59, -1.01 and -3.5% per annum), respectively and were found significant or non-significant as indicated. Growth rates in area under millets in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were (-1.1, -3.35, -1.55, -4.89, -2.76, -4.61 and -15.92% per annum), respectively and were found significantly declined. During the period 2003-04 to 2022-23, India's millet production has increased at a rate of (0.5% annually with a 1% level of significance). The annual compound growth rate in millet production in India throughout the time was found to be significant, which could be attributed to increases in productivity despite the decline in area. The state-wise picture of changes in production of millets revealed that at the overall level, growth rates in production of millets in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Uttarakhand were (4.71, 4.66, 3.77 and 7.81% per annum), respectively and were found significant. Growth rates in production of millets in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were (-0.31, -0.03, 0.36 and 0.34% per annum), respectively, with varying levels of non-significance. The productivity of millets in India has been significantly increased at the rate of (0.86% per annum) during the period of 20 years with a (1% level of significance) showed in Table 5. The state-wise picture of changes in the productivity of millets revealed that at the overall level, growth rates in productivity of millets in all states were positive and significant, ranging from (0.76%) in Karnataka to (2.69%) in Andhra Pradesh per annum, indicating notable improvements in yield across the states. These findings align with the conclusions of Menon et al. (2024) and Sukumaran et al. (2023). Therefore the null hypothesis (H₀) of no growth was rejected for millet area, production and productivity. Parameters exhibited statistically significant positive and negative growth rates with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of (-0.35%), (0.50%) and (0.86%), respectively. The alternative (H1) was accepted, showing growth in area production and productivity.

Variability in area, production and productivity of major Indian millet growing states in India.

The coefficient of variation in area, production and productivity of the major millet-growing states in India over the period of 20 years from 2003-04 to 2022-23 was calculated and showed in Table 6. [12,10] .

Instability indices in area, production and productivity of Indian millets in India.

The instability in the area, production and productivity of Indian millets over the past 20 years was studied using different instability measures, such as Coppock's Instability Index and the Cuddy & Della Valle Instability Index. The detailed results are shown in Table 8. In the case of Indian millets, data from 2003-04 to 2022-23 reveal very low instability at the national level across all three indicators: area, production and productivity. The CV% for area, production and productivity was (2.92%, 4.21% and 5.94%) respectively indicating stable trends. The Coppock's Index, ranging between 0.017 (area, productivity) and 0.025 (production), further confirms minimal fluctuations around the trend. Similarly, the Cuddy-Della Valle Index was below (3%) across all parameters, reinforcing the notion of national-level consistency. The area under millet cultivation in India has been very stable over the years, with very little change (CV: 2.92%, Coppock's Index: 0.017, Cuddy-Della: 2.12). This means farmers have continued to grow millets on nearly the same amount of land each year. Millet production has also shown low instability (CV: 4.21%, Coppock's Index: 0.025, Cuddy-Della: 2.87), which means there have been only small changes in the total amount produced from year to year. The yield or productivity of millets showed a slightly higher variation (CV: 5.94%), but it is still very steady overall, suggesting that the amount of millet produced per hectare has not changed much over time. These findings confirm the stability of India's millet cultivation at the macro level, in line with the studies by Anitha et al. (2021) [1] and Behera et al. (2021) [2] .

Summary and Conclusions 4.1 Summary

Millets are a type of small-seeded, drought-resistant grain that has been a staple in India for millennia, prized for its nutritional value and capacity to withstand dry and semi-arid climates.

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