Global dynamics of soymeal production: Growth performance and instability with reference to India

Introduction

Soymeal, the primary protein component derived from soybean processing, plays a crucial role in the global feed industry. In 2023-24, total world soymeal production reached 259.7 million metric tons, with China (78.4 MMT), the United States (49.1 MMT), and Brazil (42.1 MMT) being the leading producers. Collectively, these countries accounted for over 65 per cent of global soymeal output, supported by scale, infrastructure, and consistent soybean availability. In contrast, India produced 9.04 million metric tons of soymeal in 2023-24, with a decadal average of 7.06 million metric tons (2014-15 to 2023-24). Although this places India among the top six producers globally, its output remains considerably lower than that of dominant players. Nevertheless, India's production trajectory has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.20 per cent, higher than the global average of 2.33 per cent, indicating a positive trend despite notable year-to-year fluctuations. This comparative assessment of production levels serves as the basis for evaluating India's position in the global soymeal sector and highlights the need to address volatility and enhance long-term sustainability.

Materials and Methods

The present study was conducted at the global level with a special focus on India. Ten major soymeal-producing countries China, United States, Brazil, Argentina, European Union, India, Mexico, Russia, Egypt, and Bolivia were selected based on their share in global soymeal production. The analysis aimed to compare India's performance against these countries in terms of growth and production stability over the last decade. The study relies entirely on secondary time-series data for the period 2014-15 to 2023-24. Country-wise soymeal production statistics were sourced from USDA Production Supply and Distribution Database. The dataset for each country includes annual soymeal production volume (in '000 metric tons) for the ten-year period.

Analytical Tools and Techniques

To fulfill the study's objectives, the following statistical tools were employed:

Compound

Cuddy-Della Valle's Instability Indices (CDVI)

Instability Index = CV Where, CV = coefficient of variation adj R 2 = Coefficient of determination.

Results and Discussion a) Soymeal Production by Country (2014-15 to 2023-24)

The yearly production of soymeal (in '000 metric tons) for India and other major producing nations is shown in table 1. India's production fluctuated between 4,400 thousand metric tons (2015-16) and 9,040 thousand metric tons (2023-24), averaging 7,057 thousand metric tons over the study period. In contrast, China consistently led with production rising from 59,004 thousand metric tons to 78,408 thousand metric tons, followed by the USA (from 40,880 thousand metric tons to 49,120 thousand metric tons) and Brazil (from 31,300 thousand metric tons to 42,119 thousand metric tons). Argentina, once a major producer, declined in later years. Emerging producers like Mexico, Russia, and Egypt showed gradual increases, while EU production remained relatively stable. The table highlights India's growing contribution but also its comparative lag in volume.

b) Compound Growth Rate (CGR) of Soymeal Production

Country-wise growth performance in soymeal production is shown in table 2. India recorded a mean production of 7,057 thousand metric tons with a significant CAGR of 5.20 per cent (SE: 0.007, t-value: 3.18), reflecting moderate and consistent growth. Brazil achieved a very high mean of 35,464.2 thousand metric tons and the highest CAGR of 44.54 per cent (SE: 0.002), with a strong t-value of 9.91, showing rapid expansion in its soymeal industry. The USA led in output with 44,695.1 thousand metric tons mean production and a CAGR of 25.89 per cent (SE: 0.001, t-value: 8.87), indicating stable and significant growth. China, though the top producer by volume (mean: 70,527.6 thousand metric tons), had a lower CAGR of 2.57 per cent (t-value: 5.31), suggesting a saturated market. Argentina saw a negative CAGR of -2.05 per cent (t-value: -2.31), indicating a declining trend. The EU maintained stable production (mean: 11,731.6 thousand metric tons) with a marginal growth of 0.23 per cent (t-value: 0.65). Mexico, Russia, and Egypt showed positive growth at 5.44 per cent, 4.23 per cent and 6.91 per cent respectively, supported by expanding feed demand. However, Egypt's higher SE (0.016) and lower tvalue (1.84) signal lower statistical confidence. Bolivia registered a mean of 2,153 thousand metric tons and a CAGR of 3.75 per cent (t-value: 4.63), suggesting gradual improvement. The global average CAGR stood at 2.33 per cent, with a strong t-value of 9.97, reflecting overall steady growth across the world.

C) Instability in Soymeal Production

Using the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) and Coefficient of Variation (CV), table 3 illustrates the instability in soymeal production. India recorded a CV of 0.19 and CDVI of 0.12, indicating moderate instability. USA (CV: 0.07, CDVI: 0.02) and Brazil (0.12, 0.04) showed low variability, reflecting stable production systems. China and the EU also had low instability with CDVI values of 0.04 each. Moderate instability was observed in Mexico (0.06), Russia (0.06), and Bolivia (0.07). Argentina's CDVI of 0.08 suggests moderate fluctuation. The highest instability was found in Egypt, with a CV of 0.35 and CDVI of 0.32, indicating significant year-to-year variation. The global average CDVI was 0.02, showing overall production stability, while India remained more volatile than most major producers

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