Farmer prioritization of climate-induced problems: Insights from rainfed farming areas of Jammu region

Introduction

Climate change poses a profound threat to agriculture and food security, particularly in developing countries where the sector forms the backbone of rural livelihoods. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2019) [10] , climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) encompasses a set of practices and strategies aimed at helping agricultural systems adapt to the changing climate while maintaining or enhancing productivity, sustainability and livelihoods. CRA focuses on integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into agricultural planning and practices, ensuring that farming systems become more resilient to environmental shocks and long-term climate variability (Ademola et al., 2016; Ruel et al., 2017) [1,20] . However, despite growing recognition of the benefits of CRA, its widespread adoption remains limited in many regions. Globally, rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, increasing frequency of extreme weather events and the emergence of new pests and diseases have significantly increased the vulnerability of agriculture (Canevari-Luzardo, 2019; IPCC, 2014) [6,12] . These climate-induced changes threaten food production, disrupt value chains and undermine rural livelihoods. In response, climate-resilient agricultural practices such as drought-tolerant crops, waterharvesting systems, integrated pest management and agroforestry have been developed and promoted as adaptive solutions. These practices not only improve adaptive capacity but also contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and conserving natural resources (Mbuli et al., 2021; Chandra & McNamara, 2018) [16,7] . Yet, despite their proven benefits, the uptake of CRA practices among smallholder farmers remains low. Numerous studies and field assessments have identified a complex web of barriers that hinder adoption. These include limited awareness and access to climate information, inadequate technical knowledge, weak extension systems, financial constraints, lack of access to inputs and markets and absence of enabling policies and institutional frameworks (World Bank, 2021; Dinesh & Vermeulen, 2016) [25,8] . Additionally, cultural norms, gender disparities, land tenure insecurity and climate uncertainty further complicate the adoption landscape. In many cases, farmers are reluctant to adopt unfamiliar practices due to perceived risks, short-term opportunity costs or limited evidence of effectiveness under local conditions. In the Indian context, these barriers are particularly pronounced. India's agricultural sector supports nearly 70 per cent of the population and contributes significantly to national food security and employment. However, the sector is highly climate-sensitive due to its dependence on seasonal rainfall, small and fragmented landholdings and resourceconstrained farmers. India is projected to experience a www.extensionjournal.com temperature rise between 2.3 °C and 4.8 °C by the end of the century, along with increasing climate variability, which will significantly impact agricultural productivity and rural incomes (Nagargade et al., 2017; Kumar & Gautam, 2014) [18, 15] . Studies suggest that even a one standard deviation increase in high-temperature days can reduce agricultural output and real wages by over 10 per cent (Burgess et al., 2014) [5] . Given these projections, the need for CRA adoption is urgent. Government initiatives and development programs have introduced CRA technologies and services in various agro-ecological zones across India. These include the promotion of climate-resilient crop varieties, precision irrigation, crop diversification and soil health management. While some success stories exist, adoption rates remain uneven and often low, particularly in rainfed areas where exposure to climate risks is highest and institutional support is weakest. This highlights the need for a deeper understanding of the local drivers and constraints influencing farmers' decisions (Atube et al., 2021) [2] . Moreover, the non-adoption of CRA practices carries significant implications. Continued reliance on traditional farming systems without climate adaptation exacerbates food insecurity, increases vulnerability to shocks and threatens the long-term sustainability of agriculture. It also widens the gap between policy intentions and ground realities. As climate change accelerates, the inability to implement effective adaptive practices may result in irreversible damage to agricultural productivity and rural welfare. Therefore, it is essential to identify and address the multifaceted barriers that limit CRA adoption. A comprehensive and context-specific approach is needed-one that combines awareness-raising, knowledge dissemination, skill development, financial incentives, infrastructure investments and policy coherence. Collaboration among stakeholders including governments, research institutions, farmer organizations, civil society and the private sector is also vital to creating enabling environments for CRA. The primary objective of the present study was to identify, rank and analyze the major climate change-induced problems as perceived by the farmers in vulnerable villages. The study aimed to prioritize these problems based on their severity, with the goal of informing the development of targeted, climate-resilient agricultural strategies and interventions.

Profile of the study area

The Jammu region is one of the two main divisions of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the other being the Kashmir Valley. Geographically located in the southern part of the UT, the Jammu region is bordered by Punjab and Himachal Pradesh and serves as a transition zone between the plains of northern India and the mountainous terrain of the Himalayas. The majority of the population in the region is engaged in agriculture, horticulture, livestock rearing and government services. Jammu district has a sub-tropical climate with hot and dry climate in summer and cold climate in winter. Being in the foothills of the mountains, nights are generally cooler. Minimum and Maximum temperature is around 4℃ and 47℃ respectively. Rainy season usually starts from the end of June or the beginning of July. Average rainfall in the district is about 1246 mm. Bhalwal Block, located in Jammu District of Jammu Division, is a semi-arid and rainfed region selected for a pilot project aimed at addressing climate-induced agricultural challenges. The block is the part of the Kandi belt and Siwalik hills, experiences excessive runoff, soil erosion, land degradation and erratic rainfall distribution, leading to frequent water stress during cropping seasons. With a deep groundwater table and streams carrying debris during the rainy season, agricultural productivity is significantly affected by monsoon variability. Agriculture remains a key livelihood, with 4,823 cultivators and 1,201 agricultural labourers. Of the total 6,921 ha, only 238 ha are irrigated, leaving 6,683 ha rainfed, making the region highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations.

Materials and Methods

Locale of the study

The present study was conducted in the Jammu district of J&K, UT. From Jammu district, Bhalwal block was selected purposively for the present study as the project entitled "Climate Resilient Sustainable Agriculture in Rainfed Farming Areas of Jammu and Kashmir" has been implemented since 2016-17 in the said block.

Selection of villages

A baseline survey for the vulnerability assessment of 51 villages in the Bhalwal block of Jammu district was conducted during 2016-17. Based on this assessment, 25 villages were identified as climatically vulnerable and the project entitled "Climate Resilient Sustainable Agriculture in Rainfed Farming Areas of Jammu and Kashmir" has been implemented since 2016-17 in these 25 vulnerable villages of said block. Thus, these 25 vulnerable villages were purposively selected for the present study to examine the problems perceived by the farmers due to climate change. To determine the sample size of farmers from the vulnerable villages, Slovin's formula (Equation 1), as proposed by Yamane (1967) [26] , was employed.

n= …………………….(1)

Where, n = required sample size N = the total number of farmers (N=1250) e = adjust margin of error at level of significance 5 per cent

Selection of respondents

From vulnerable villages, 12 farmers were selected from each selected vulnerable villages using random sampling technique. Thus, the sample size from vulnerable villages was 300. The data used for this study was exclusively from primary source and were collected with the help of a designed interview schedule designed administrated at the household level through face-to-face interview. The present study addressed the problem confrontation of farmers w.r.t climate induced problems. The study used a four-point Likert-type scale for estimating problem confrontation scores. The farmers were required to respond to 10 climaterelated issues in the adaptation process. Each problem was assigned scores of 4, 3, 2, and to indicate "most severe", "medium severe", "low severe" and "not at all", respectively. [27,28,29,30] . The PCI is estimated as follows:

PCI= Farmers often rely on historical weather patterns to guide their agricultural practices, but increasing unpredictability challenges this reliance (Wagaye et al., 2020) [23] . It is followed by low yield of crops or crop failure (51%) and crop damage due to excessive rain (45%), indicating that extreme weather events are directly impacting productivity and threatening household food security. These findings reflect the increasing vulnerability of rainfed farming systems to both excessive and insufficient rainfall, which disrupt crop growth, damage standing crops and contribute to income instability. In Northern Ghana, rainfall variability has been linked to negative correlations with crop yields, particularly for maize, millet and sorghum (Ndamani and Watanabe, 2014) [19] . On the other hand, the least severe problems reported include poor quality of farm produce, with 61 per cent of farmers rating it as low severe and 39 per cent stating it is not a problem at all and vulnerability to soil erosion, which was not considered a problem by 54 per cent of farmers (Table 1). This suggests that while some aspects of climate change, such as rainfall variability and yield loss, are widely experienced, others may be more localized or already managed through existing practices.

Overall, the results emphasized the need for targeted climate-resilient agricultural strategies such as improved water conservation, use of stress-tolerant crop varieties and early warning systems to help farmers adapt to climateinduced challenges and sustain their livelihoods in the face of increasing climatic uncertainty.

Weighted scores of climate-induced problems

The highest overall confrontation score was recorded for the change in rainfall pattern over time (score: 4351), emphasizing it as the most pressing issue disrupting agricultural planning and cropping cycles. This aligns with the broader concern that unpredictable precipitation patterns have intensified, leading to increased risks to food production and water availability. The overarching trend of increasing rainfall unpredictability continues to pose significant challenges to agricultural planning and food security across various regions (Sharangi and Acharaya, 2023) [21] . Following this, the issue of low yield of crops or crop failure scored 4277, reflecting farmers' acute perception of declining productivity due to erratic climatic events. Similarly, crop damage due to excessive rain (score: 4074) and moisture stress from prolonged dry spells (score: 4040) were also rated as major concerns, both of which highlight the dual nature of climate extremes adversely affecting crop health. Problems like stunted crop growth (score: 3882) and increased pest and disease infestation (score: 3963) also scored high, indicating the biological stress imposed by changing weather patterns. These findings resonate with Islam and Nilahyane (2019) [13] , who reported that moisture stress impairs plant physiological functions such as stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, leading to yield decline, and Jarrett et al. (2023) [14] , who emphasized the need for adaptive farming practices to counter prolonged dry spells. In contrast, issues such as poor quality of farm produce (score: 2919) and soil erosion vulnerability (score: 2873) were mostly rated under low severity and not at all, suggesting they are considered secondary in immediacy (Table 2). Likewise, difficulty in working in fields due to extreme temperatures (score: 3219) was commonly ranked as medium or low severe, indicating it is viewed more as a discomfort than a critical constraint. This is consistent with findings by Mubangizi et al. (2019) [17] , who highlighted that farmers in Uganda adopt diversification and agronomic practices for resilience, and by Sharma et al. (2024) [22] , who stress that integrating traditional knowledge with modern techniques enhances farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. www.extensionjournal.com

Ranking of climate-induced problems based on problem confrontation index (PCI)

The highest overall severity score was recorded for change in rainfall pattern over time, with a PCI score of 1117, reaffirming its position as the most critical issue affecting agricultural activities in the study area. This was followed by crop damage due to excessive rain (PCI: 918) and moisture stress due to continuous dry spells (PCI: 914), reflecting farmers' perception of the adverse effects of erratic precipitation and water scarcity on crop performance (Table 3). These findings underscore the seriousness of rainfall-related uncertainties, with studies such as Bagna (2023) [3] highlighting that a significant majority of farmers, including 80% in the Guidimouni basin, recognize climate risks as a threat to agriculture. Low yield of crops or crop failure (PCI: 899) and stunted growth of crops (PCI: 886) also received high scores, showing that both drought and waterlogging stress are impacting crop development and yields across stages of the crop cycle. In contrast, the least severe problems perceived by farmers were increased vulnerability to soil erosion (PCI: 439) and poor quality of farm produce (PCI: 483), suggesting that while these issues exist, they are not viewed as immediate threats. Bhandari et al. (2021) [4] acknowledge that soil erosion affects long-term productivity, but its gradual impact might make it less noticeable to farmers in the short term. Difficulty in working in the field due to severe temperatures (PCI: 655) and pest/disease infestations (PCI: 719) were ranked moderately, indicating their tangible but secondary influence. Overall, the findings highlight that climate variability especially in rainfall timing and intensity is the primary concern, necessitating targeted interventions such as water conservation, adaptive cropping strategies, and improved access to localized climate information. As Eze et al. (2021) [9] noted, localized weather forecasting significantly aids. Causes stunted growth of crops 886 V 5.

Drying of seedlings after germination 797 VI 6.

Low yield of crops/crop failure 899 IV 7.

Poor quality of farm produce 483 IX 8.

Increases vulnerability to soil erosion 439 X 9.

Change in rainfall pattern overtime 1117 I 10.

Increases pests/diseases infestation 719 VII

Conclusion

The study comprehensively examined the perceptions of farmers regarding the severity of various climate changeinduced problems in vulnerable agricultural areas. Using the problem confrontation index, the analysis revealed that the most pressing issue affecting farmers is the unpredictability in rainfall patterns, which has far-reaching consequences for agricultural planning, crop productivity and food security. Problems like low crop yield, damage due to excessive rainfall and moisture stress due to dry spells were also ranked high, indicating that both the scarcity and excess of water are adversely impacting farming operations. Meanwhile, factors such as poor quality of produce and soil erosion, though acknowledged, were not viewed as immediate threats by most farmers. The consistency of rankings across severity categories further validates the seriousness of rainfall-related issues. These findings underscore the importance of implementing site-specific and climate-resilient agricultural strategies that can mitigate the negative effects of climate variability. Policymakers and extension agencies should prioritize investments in water conservation, the promotion of drought-and flood-tolerant crop varieties and timely weather forecasts tailored to local conditions. Moreover, improving farmer awareness and access to climate-smart technologies will be essential in enhancing resilience and sustaining agricultural productivity in the face of growing climate risks. By integrating farmer perceptions into vulnerability assessments, this study contributes valuable insights for adaptive planning and decision-making in the agricultural sector.

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