Trend and growth rate in area, production and productivity of papaya in the Chhattisgarh plain zone

www.extensionjournal.com including 28 Chhattisgarh districts out of the three agroclimatic zones, Chhattisgarh plain zone was selected purposely for the study. The data pertaining to the area, production and productivity of papaya was obtained from the official website of the Chhattisgarh Agricultural Development and Farmer Welfare and Biotechnology Department Chhattisgarh.

Analytical tools:

The analytical tools used in this study are mentioned below

Trend

To analyze the growth rates of the Papaya crop in the Chhattisgarh state trend analysis was carried out using the linear trend method Linear trend, Y = a + bx Where, Y= dependent variables (Area, production, productivity) a= intercept b= Regression co-efficient x=Period

Simple Growth Rate (SGR)

Were. b= Regression co-efficient Ӯ = Mean value of dependent variable

Results

Trend and growth rate in area, production and productivity of papaya in the Chhattisgarh Plain zone

This section has presented the outcome of the analysis of trends and percent growth rate of area, production and productivity of papaya crop in linear forms, using statistical tools such as linear equation and simple growth rate (SGR). The time series data has been fitted district by district to give an idea regarding the direction and rate of change in papaya area, production and productivity. Regression coefficient and SGR values are calculated and are presented in tabular form and explained under the following subhead:

Area

The trend coefficient and simple growth rate of the area of papaya in different districts of the Chhattisgarh plain zone of the state have been calculated, under the heading area: Regarding Raigarh district, the value of the trend coefficient (20.84) was positive and significant at a 1% level of significance. The SGR value (6.60%) was also positive, which shows that the Papaya area has increased during the period of study. In the Bilaspur district, the value of the regression coefficient (44.84) was positive but nonsignificant and the SGR value (2.06%) was also positive, i.e., the area of papaya shows increasing trends. Kabirdham district has shown an increasing trend in the area of papaya, at the rate of 10.97 percent and the trend coefficient (25.76) value was positive and significant at 1% level of significance.

In the case of Janjgir district, papaya area has positive and highly significant (1%) regression coefficient value (12.50) and SGR value (1.71%) was found positive, i.e., area of the papaya shows increasing trends. Regarding Mahasamund district, the value of trend coefficient (75.50) was positive and significant at 5% level of significance. The SGR value (7.16%) was also positive, that has shown that Papaya area has increased during the period of study. Rajnandgaon district has shown the increasing trend in area of papaya, at the rate of 5.84 percent and trend coefficient (17.73) value was positive and significant at 5% level of significance. In Durg district, value of regression coefficient (89.97) was positive and significant at 1% level of significance and the SGR value (4.76%) was also positive, i.e., area of papaya shows increasing trends. In case of Dhamtari district, papaya area has positive and highly significant (1%) regression coefficient value (23.41) and SGR (6.37%) value was found positive, i.e., area of papaya shows increasing trends. In Kanker district, value of regression coefficient (11.63) was positive and nonsignificant whereas, the SGR value (4.56%) was also positive, i.e., area of papaya shows increasing trends. Linear regression coefficient value has shown the positive increasing trend of area under papaya for majority of the districts of the zone except Korba and Raipur, where area has shown the decreasing trend during the period of study. In case of Korba district, papaya area has negative and highly significant (1%) regression coefficient value (59.87) and SGR (18.69%) value was found negative, i.e., area of papaya shows decreasing trends. Similarly, the Raipur district has shown the decreasing trend in area of papaya, at the rate of 1.84 percent and trend coefficient (31.34) value was negative and non-significant. In total area of papaya has shown the positive and highly significant trend coefficient value (230.95), with the simple growth rate of 2.47 percent, in Chhattisgarh plain zone. thus, it could be concluded from the Table 1 that, the trend coefficient value (457) was positive and significant at 1% level, with the growth rate of 3.63 percent during the study period. This indicated that area of papaya has been increased by 457 ha in Chhattisgarh state per year.

Production

Trend coefficient and simple growth rate of production of papaya in different districts of the Chhattisgarh plain zone of the state have been calculated, under the heading production: Regarding Raigarh district, the value of the trend coefficient (1056.99) was positive and significant at a 1% level of significance. The SGR value (10.49%) was also positive, which has shown that Papaya production has increased during the period of study. In the Bilaspur district, the value of the regression coefficient (1285.38) was positive but nonsignificant and the SGR value (2.57%) was also positive, i.e., the production of papaya shows increasing trends. Kabirdham district has shown the increasing trend in production of papaya, at the rate of 8.44 percent and trend coefficient (259.44) value was positive and significant at 1% level of significance. In case of Janjgir district, papaya production has positive and highly significant (1%) regression coefficient value (657.62) and SGR value (4.28%) was found positive, i.e., production of papaya www.extensionjournal.com shows increasing trends. Regarding Mahasamund district, the value of trend coefficient (2302.87) was positive and significant at 1% level of significance. The SGR value (10.79%) was also positive, that has shown that Papaya production has increased during the period of study. Rajnandgaon district has shown the increasing trend in production of papaya, at the rate of 7.20 percent and trend coefficient (424.41) value was positive and significant at 1% level of significance. In Durg district, value of regression coefficient (3539.55) was positive and significant at 1% level of significance and the SGR value (4.70%) was also positive, i.e., production of papaya shows increasing trends. In case of Raipur district, papaya production has positive and moderately significant (5%) regression coefficient value (2083.99) and SGR (3.97%) value was found positive, i.e., production of papaya shows increasing trends. In Kanker district, value of regression coefficient (190.03) was positive and nonsignificant whereas, the SGR value (4.63%) was also positive, i.e., production of papaya shows increasing trends. Linear regression coefficient value has shown the positive increasing trend of production under papaya for majority of the districts of the zone except Korba and Dhamtari, where production has shown the decreasing trend during the period of study. In the case of the Korba district, papaya production has a negative and non-significant regression coefficient value (757.07) and SGR (8.86%) value was found negative, i.e., production of papaya shows decreasing trends. Similarly, the Dhamtari district has shown a decreasing trend in the production of papaya, at the rate of 2.27 percent and trend coefficient (93.31) value was negative and nonsignificant. In total, the production of papaya has shown a positive and highly significant trend coefficient value (10949.91), with a simple growth rate of 4.37 percent, in the Chhattisgarh plain zone. Thus, it could be concluded from Table 1 that, the trend coefficient value (15614.55) was positive and significant at 1% level, with a growth rate of 4.93 percent during the study period. This indicated that production of papaya has been increased in Chhattisgarh state by 15614.55 metric tonnes per year.

Productivity

Trend coefficient and simple growth rate of productivity of papaya in different districts of the Chhattisgarh plain zone of the state has been calculated, under the heading productivity: In case of Korba district, papaya productivity has positive and non-significant regression coefficient value (323.17) and SGR (1.56%) value was found negative, i.e., productivity of papaya shows increasing trends. Regarding Raigarh district, the value of trend coefficient (1510.89) was positive and significant at 5% level of significance. The SGR value (4.90%) was also positive, that has shown that Papaya productivity has increased during the period of study. In Bilaspur district, value of regression coefficient (52.46) was positive and significant at 1%, and the SGR value (0.23%) was also positive, i.e., productivity of papaya shows increasing trends. In case of Janjgir district, papaya productivity has positive and highly significant (1%) regression coefficient value (557.75) and SGR value (2.67%) was found positive, i.e., productivity of papaya shows increasing trends. Regarding Mahasamund district, the value of trend coefficient (754.38) was positive and significant at 5% level of significance. The SGR value (3.79%) was also positive, that has shown that Papaya productivity has increased during the period of study. Rajnandgaon district has shown the increasing trend in productivity of papaya, at the rate of 1.30 percent and trend coefficient (250.93) value was positive and significant at 1% level of significance. In case of Raipur district, papaya productivity has positive and highly significant (1%) regression coefficient value (2031.88) and SGR (6.42%) value was found positive, i.e., productivity of papaya shows increasing trends. In Kanker district, value of regression coefficient (8.70) was positive and non-significant whereas, the SGR value (0.05%) was also positive, i.e., productivity of papaya shows increasing trends. Linear regression coefficient value has shown the positive increasing trend of productivity under papaya for majority of the districts of the zone except Kabirdham, Durg and Dhamtari, where productivity has shown the decreasing trend during the period of study. Kabirdham district has shown the decreasing trend in productivity of papaya, at the rate of 3.52 percent and trend coefficient (485.16) value was positive and significant at 1% level of significance. In Durg district, value of regression coefficient (30.21) was negative and significant at 5% level of significance and the SGR value (0.08%) was also negative, i.e., productivity of papaya shows increasing trends. Similarly, the Dhamtari district has shown the decreasing trend in productivity of papaya, at the rate of 9.02 percent and the trend coefficient (1098.11) value was negative and significant at the 1% level. In total, the productivity of papaya has shown a positive and highly significant trend coefficient value (545.38), with a simple growth rate of 2.05 percent, in the Chhattisgarh plain zone. Thus, it could be concluded from the Table 1 that, the trend coefficient value (343.04) was positive and significant at a 1% level, with a growth rate of 1.37 percent during the study period. This indicated that the productivity of papaya has been increased in Chhattisgarh state by 343.04 kg/ha per year.

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