Weather patterns and their impact on Fruit Borer Population in Tomato Crops

Abstract

The fruit borer population in tomato crops initially started at 0.00 individuals per plant and reached 3.10 individuals per plant by week 4 (January 22-28). This population surge was associated with moderate maximum temperatures averaging 32.29°C, which created favorable conditions for the pests. The absence of rainfall during this period reduced resource competition, further promoting the pest's growth. Stable minimum temperatures of 25.86°C also provided an optimal environment for their activity. Correlation and regression analyses highlighted the relationship between weather parameters and fruit borer populations. Maximum humidity showed a moderate positive correlation (ρ = 0.447), suggesting that higher humidity enhances pest survival and activity. In contrast, maximum temperature exhibited a weak negative correlation (ρ = -0.251), while rainfall and minimum temperature had negligible impacts. Linear regression analysis revealed that maximum relative humidity (R2=0.199) was the most significant predictor of pest populations, although none of the variables showed statistically significant relationships, indicating other influencing factors. Multiple linear regression analysis further emphasized the role of maximum relative humidity in fruit borer populations, but the relationship was not statistically significant. Other weather factors, such as temperature and rainfall, had weak or negligible effects, suggesting the involvement of additional, unexamined environmental variables in pest dynamics.