Growth rate and instability analysis of area, production, and productivity of rapeseed-mustard crop in Gujarat state

Introduction

Agriculture has been and will continue to be the lifeline of the Indian economy. As the largest private enterprise in India, agriculture contributes nearly about 14 percent of the national GDP. This sector employs about 50-60% of the Indian population. Sustains livelihood of about two thirds of population and is the backbone of agro based industries. A large number of important industries like textiles, vanaspati oils, jute, tobacco and sugar are sustained on raw materials produced in farm sector. The crops that are cultivated for the production of oils are known as oilseed crops. Oilseeds are the raw materials for vegetable oils and they are energy rich crops. Oilseed crops are the most important commercial crops in India. Edible oils are next to food grains in Indian diet. Edible oils are the concentrated sources of energy. The energy content of oil is much higher (39.80 MJ/kg) than protein (23.88 MJ/kg) or carbohydrate (16.76 MJ/kg). Rapeseed-mustard is a group of oilseed crops belonging to the Brassicaceae family, primarily cultivated for their oilrich seeds. Mustard oil is also rich in vit. E and has good stability at high temperature also.

Methodology Description of study area and period

The study focused on mustard, which ranked third in terms of triennium average area and production among oilseeds in Gujarat. The analysis covered the period from 2000-01 to 2021-22, examining district-wise and region -wise trends across the state. Data was thoroughly analysed to estimate mustard cultivation patterns and productivity levels within Gujarat, and these findings were subsequently compared with national trends across India.

Nature and sources of data

The study was entirely based on secondary data. Secondary time series data were utilized to address the specific objective of the study, namely the growth rate. Relevant secondary data for this objective were collected from the Directorate of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture, Farmers' Welfare & Cooperation, Government of Gujarat, the Indian Institute of Oilseeds Research (IIOR) (Anonymous a ), and Indiastat. (Anonymous b ).

Growth rates analysis

Growth rate can be defined as the rate of change per unit time. It is used to measure the past performance of the economic variables in question and describe the trends in those variables over time. The normal statistical procedure to obtain a growth dynamics of crops over a period is to postulate a hypothetical function which would adequately describe the series of economic variables over time and estimate their parameters. Growth rate is generally www.extensionjournal.com expressed in two forms, viz., linear and compound. The linear form is obtained by fitting a straight line to the yearly data and estimating the parameters. The compound growth rate is obtained by fitting a straight line to the logarithms of the data and estimating the slope of the line (Acharya et al., 2012).

Compound growth rate

The compound growth rates (CGR's) of vegetable products export in India was calculated by using the exponential function of the following specification: The calculated 't' values, from equation ( 6), was compared with the table 't' values and the significance was tested for 1 and 5 percent, probability levels.

Instability analysis

Instability is the one of the important decision parameters in development dynamics, more so in the context of agriculture production. Wide fluctuations in crop output not only affect prices and bring about sharp fluctuations in them but also result in wide variation in the disposable income of the farmer. The magnitude of fluctuation depends on the nature of product technology, its sensitivity to weather, economic, environment, availability of material input and many other factors. Here, instability or variability measures how spread out or closely clustered a set of data is. The instability was measured with the following two methods, a) Coefficient of variation (CV %) b) Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI %)

The coefficient of variation was computed to find out the extent of variability in area, production and productivity during the study period.

Results and Discussion

Growth Rate District and region wise growth rates of area, production and productivity of rapeseed-mustard crop in Gujarat state.

North Gujarat region

The annual growth rates of rapeseed-mustard crop in North region of Gujarat state have been estimated. According to Table 1, the results revealed that Kutch district www.extensionjournal.com exhibited substantial positive growth in area (6.22%) and production (8.83%), with a significant productivity increase (2.45%), indicating overall improvement in rapeseedmustard cultivation. Banaskantha district showed a marginal decline in area (-0.30%), but both production (2.26%) and productivity (2.57%) experienced significant positive growth. Patan district recorded the highest growth rates in area (17.88%), production (20.28%), and productivity (27.45%), reflecting a strong expansion and enhancement in the cultivation of the crop. Mehsana district faced significant declines in area (-6.16%) and production (-4.30%), although productivity showed a significant positive growth (1.99%). Sabarkantha district experienced declines in both area (-6.24%) and production (-3.24%), with a slight increase in productivity (0.78%), showing a reduction in cultivated area but a minor improvement in yield. Gandhinagar district saw negative growth across all parameters, with area (-7.34%), production (-5.55%), and productivity (-1.46%) all decreasing, indicating an overall decline in rapeseed-mustard cultivation in the district. Overall, the North Gujarat region exhibited a slight decline in area (-0.75%), but positive growth in production (1.61%) and productivity (2.37%), suggesting that while the total area under cultivation reduced slightly, overall production and efficiency improved.

Saurashtra region

The annual growth rates of rapeseed-mustard crop in Saurashtra region of Gujarat state have been estimated. As per the results in Table 2, it was indicated that Surendranagar and Rajkot had exhibited positive growth in area, production, and productivity. Surendranagar had shown the highest growth in production (15.53%) and a significant increase in productivity (2.13%). Rajkot had also seen notable growth in production (11.77%) and productivity (2.82%). On the other hand, Jamnagar, Junagadh, and Bhavnagar had experienced a decline in both area and production. However, productivity had increased significantly in all three, with Bhavnagar having the highest increase in productivity (5.12%), despite a significant decline in area (-14.77%) and production (-11.92%). Overall, the Saurashtra region had shown positive growth rates in both area (3.71%) and production (5.61%), and it had also exhibited significant positive growth in productivity. The positive growth in productivity across the region suggests that a continued focus on improving efficiency and yield could help offset the declines in area and production in certain districts.

Central Gujarat

The annual growth rates of rapeseed-mustard crop in Central Gujarat region have been estimated. 3, results revealed that Ahmedabad district experienced negative growth rates in both area (-8.17%) and production (-5.20%), but showed a significant increase in productivity (3.31%). Anand district witnessed positive growth in both area (4.98%) and production (7.81%), with an exceptionally high productivity growth of 28.24 percent. Kheda district demonstrated a decrease in area (-8.94%) and production (-7.18%), but productivity showed a significant increase (1.94%). Panchmahal district showed positive growth in both area (1.06%) and production (3.59%), with a significant productivity increase (5.73%). Vadodara district experienced negative growth rates in both area (-9.21%) and production (-7.23%), but with a significant increase in productivity (3.49%). Overall, Central Gujarat exhibited a negative growth rate in both area (-5.45%) and production (-3.23%), but with a positive growth in productivity (2.35%). This suggests that while there were challenges in expanding cultivation and production, there were notable improvements in efficiency and yield per unit area.

South Gujarat *Note:

In the entire South Gujarat region, data of area, production, and productivity for rapeseed-mustard crops was unavailable.

Gujarat state Vs India

The annual growth rates of rapeseed-mustard crop in Gujarat state Vs. India have been estimated. 4, the results revealed that Gujarat experienced a significant decline in the area under rapeseed-mustard cultivation, with an annual rate of -0.69 percent. In contrast, the area in India increased significantly at an annual rate of 1.17 percent. Both regions saw significant increases in production. Gujarat's production grew at 1.65 percent per www.extensionjournal.com annum, while India's production grew at a higher rate of 3.28 percent per annum. Productivity improvements were significant in both regions. Gujarat's productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.36 percent, which was higher than the national rate of 2.09 percent. Overall, the results concluded that despite a decrease in the area under cultivation, Gujarat achieved notable gains in both production and productivity of rapeseed-mustard. At the national level, the positive growth rates in area, production, and productivity for rapeseed-mustard in India highlighted overall agricultural expansion and efficiency improvements. Similar results were found for India by Kalia et al. (2021) [6] .

Instability

District and region wise instability analysis of area, production and productivity of rapeseed-mustard crop in Gujarat state.

North Gujarat region

The instability of rapeseed-mustard crop in North region of Gujarat state have been estimated.

Saurashtra region

The instability analysis of rapeseed-mustard crop in Saurashtra region of Gujarat state have been estimated.

Central Gujarat:

The instability analysis of rapeseedmustard crop in Central Gujarat region have been estimated.

South Gujarat

Note: In the entire South Gujarat region, data of area, production, and productivity for rapeseed-mustard crops was unavailable.

Gujarat state Vs India

The instability analysis of rapeseed-mustard crop in Gujarat state Vs. India have been estimated. The table 8 presents an instability analysis of rapeseed and mustard production in Gujarat state compared to the entire country of India from the period 2000-01 to 2021-22. Gujarat showed higher instability indices in the area under cultivation for rapeseed and mustard (CV of 24.09% and CDVI of 23.61%) compared to India as a whole (CV of 14.14% and CDVI of 14.41%). The production of rapeseed and mustard was more unstable in Gujarat (CV of 28.84% and CDVI of 25.83%) than in India overall (CV of 25.16% and CDVI of 24.98%). Productivity in Gujarat was more stable (CV of 17.09% and CDVI of 3.50%) compared to the national level (CV of 15.38% and CDVI of 13.13%). Similar results were found for India by Kalia et. al. (2021) [6] .

Conclusion

Rapeseed-mustard varied growth trends were observed across North Gujarat, Saurashtra, and Central Gujarat, with some districts showing expansion in production and productivity while others faced challenges. Gujarat experienced a decline in cultivation area but showed positive growth rates in production and productivity, underscoring the need for targeted policies to address regional disparities and across Gujarat highlights significant instability in agricultural production. Cultivation witnessed pronounced instability in Kutch and Jamnagar for area and production, emphasizing regional disparities in stability. Over all Gujarat had higher instability in area and production compared to India.

References

1. Acharya SP, Basavaraja H, Kunnal LB, Mahajanashetti SB, Bhat RS. Growth in area, production and productivity of major crops in Karnataka. Karnataka J Agril Sci. 2012;25(4):431-436.
2. Anonymous. Indiastat; c2024 [cited 2025 Jan 3]. Available from: https://www.indiastat.com/
3. Cuddy JD, Della Valle PA. Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford Bull Econ Stat. 1978;40(1):7984.
4. Kalia A, Shukla G, Mishra D, Mishra BP, Patel RR. Comparative trend analysis of mustard in Bundelkhand region, Uttar Pradesh and India. Indian J Ext. Educ. 2021;57(1):15-19.