Research article · 2024 · Full text
International Journal of Geography Geology and EnvironmentForecasting biomass depletion, carbon emission and economic loss of coastal areas of Kinondoni District, Tanzania
Volume 6(2) · Pages 180–186 · DOI: 10.22271/27067483.2024.v6.i2c.303 ↗
Research areasCoastal and Marine ManagementEnergy and Environment ImpactsGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Abstract
Author-writtenThis study examines the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on biomass depletion, carbon emissions, and economic losses in Kinondoni District, Tanzania, from 2023 to 2033. Utilizing the National Forest Resources Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA) approach alongside modern GIS techniques, the research quantifies the ecological and economic consequences of these changes. Coastal habitats, particularly mangrove forests, serve as vital carbon sinks, aiding climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon. However, rapid urbanization, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development have led to significant ecological damage in Kinondoni. The study predicts a biomass reduction of approximately 17,868.4 tonnes, primarily due to deforestation and mangrove degradation, which contributes to 103.4% of total biomass and carbon losses. This decline in carbon sequestration capacity results in the release of 8,390.1 tonnes of carbon, equating to 30,821.2 tonnes of CO₂. Additionally, the research forecasts an economic loss of around US$ 123,284.8 due to diminished carbon sequestration potential. The findings emphasize the urgent need for conservation and restoration efforts, particularly for mangrove ecosystems, and advocate for sustainable land use policies that incorporate ecosystem service valuation to bolster environmental and economic resilience in coastal Tanzania.
Summary
Source-checkedPlain-language reading of the full paper, prepared with AI and checked against the text. Each point links to the authors' own words.
Why it matters
- Coastal habitats, especially mangrove forests, are critical for mitigating climate change because they act as carbon sinks by sequestering carbon. View evidence ↗
- In the Kinondoni District, rapid urbanization, infrastructure development, and agricultural expansion have caused significant ecological damage. View evidence ↗
- The degradation of mangrove ecosystems reduces their ability to provide essential services such as coastal protection, tourism, and fisheries. View evidence ↗
The question
- The study aims to examine how land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Kinondoni District, Tanzania, affect biomass depletion, carbon emissions, and economic losses between 2023 and 2033. View evidence ↗
What they did
- The research was conducted in the coastal wards of Ununio and Mbweni in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. View evidence ↗
- The researchers used modern GIS techniques and the National Forest Resources Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA) approach to quantify ecological and economic impacts. View evidence ↗
- High-resolution satellite imagery and GIS software were used to forecast LULC changes for the period 2023 to 2033. View evidence ↗
- To project carbon emissions, the study applied IPCC biomass-to-carbon conversion factors and NAFORMA guidelines. View evidence ↗
What they found
- The study predicts a total biomass reduction of approximately 17,868.4 tonnes, with mangrove degradation and deforestation accounting for 103.4% of these losses. View evidence ↗
- The loss of carbon sequestration capacity is expected to release 8,390.1 tonnes of carbon, which is equivalent to 30,821.2 tonnes of CO₂. View evidence ↗
- The diminished potential for carbon sequestration is forecasted to result in an economic loss of approximately US$ 123,284.8. View evidence ↗
- Urban areas showed a slight biomass increase of 8.2%, but this was considered negligible compared to the severe losses in mangrove habitats. View evidence ↗
What it means
- The authors conclude that there is an urgent need for mangrove restoration and conservation, and they recommend sustainable land use policies that include the valuation of ecosystem services. View evidence ↗
- The authors suggest that implementing conservation initiatives with socio-economic benefits, such as ecosystem service payments and carbon trading, is essential. View evidence ↗
Visual summary
3 visualsIllustrations explain the paper; charts are replotted from the paper's own table values.
The Cascade of Coastal Degradation
AI-generated conceptual illustration (Mangrove forests in the coastal areas of Kinondoni District, Tanzania). It explains the idea and does not show study data.
View source evidence ↗
Mangrove forest: AGB vs BGB vs DWB vs Total
Replotted from Table 4 (page 5) of the original paper. Every bar is the paper's own table value.
View source evidence ↗
Bare area: AGB vs BGB vs DWB vs Total
Replotted from Table 4 (page 5) of the original paper. Every bar is the paper's own table value.
View source evidence ↗Figures & tables
From the original paper
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Table 8Introduction
The coastal regions of Kinondoni District in Tanzania exemplify a vital nexus of ecological diversity and socio-economic importance, with significant ramifications for both local and global environmental sustainability. Coastal ecosystems, including mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and coastal forests, are crucial for carbon sequestration, which is necessary for alleviating climate change. These ecosystems are acknowledged as very effective carbon sinks, proficient in sequestering significant quantities of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), thereby diminishing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and mitigating global warming (Osland et al., 2021) [16] . The swift degradation of these ecosystems, chiefly attributable to human actions such as urbanization and alterations in land use, presents a considerable risk to their capacity to operate as carbon sinks. The incursion of urban, agricultural, and infrastructure activities into previously pristine coastal regions has exerted significant strain on Kinondoni's ecosystems (Chausson et al., 2023) [2] . The degradation is particularly pronounced in the district's mangrove forests, where alterations in land use have led to substantial biomass loss and the emission of stored carbon into the atmosphere, hence elevating CO₂ levels and intensifying climate change (Nguyen et al., 2023) [15] . The continuous development exacerbates the destruction of mangroves and other coastal ecosystems, increasing the region's susceptibility to climate change effects and intensifying environmental deterioration. Mangroves, seagrasses, and diverse coastal ecosystems function as natural carbon sinks. The degradation of these ecosystems results in the release of carbon stored in their biomass and sediments, consequently elevating atmospheric CO₂ levels and exacerbating global warming (Friess et al., 2023) [4] . The conversion of coastal forests to urban and agricultural zones in Kinondoni has markedly increased carbon emissions, presenting a substantial obstacle to global climate change mitigation initiatives. The depletion of "blue carbon," which refers to carbon sequestered in coastal ecosystems, has attracted global focus because of the significant carbon absorption and storage potential of these environments. Their destruction not only intensifies climate change but also leads to forfeited economic prospects, especially in nascent carbon pricing markets (Bai et al., 2022) [1] . The economic consequences of biomass depletion and carbon emissions are especially significant in Kinondoni, where local residents rely extensively on coastal resources for their livelihoods and food security. The deterioration of mangrove ecosystems diminishes their capacity to deliver vital ecological services, including fisheries, tourism, and coastal protection. This decline negatively impacts the local economy, particularly for individuals dependent on these resources (Osland et al., 2021) [16] . Moreover, the depletion of coastal protection provided by mangroves heightens the district's susceptibility to storm surges, coastal erosion, and other natural calamities, resulting in escalated expenses for disaster recovery and infrastructure upkeep (Chausson et al., 2023) [2] . The economic significance of preserving these ecosystems is increasingly acknowledged, especially through methods such as carbon trading, which underscore the substantial carbon storage capacity of mangroves as a lucrative possibility. The continuous deterioration of these forests jeopardizes their economic sustainability, rendering conservation and restoration initiatives crucial for capitalizing on these opportunities (Bai et al., 2022) [1] . Given the urbanization and population growth in Kinondoni, it is essential to foresee the future effects of land-use alterations on biomass depletion, carbon emissions, and economic detriment. Predictive models offer significant insights into ecosystem degradation patterns and inform conservation actions to alleviate these impacts (Wang et al., 2021) [19] . Identifying regions most susceptible to future land-use conversion enables policymakers and environmentalists to prioritize efforts to save surviving ecosystems and augment their carbon storage capacity.
Materials and methods 2.1 Description of the study area
The study area encompasses the coastal wards of Mbweni and Ununio in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, situated within the biodiverse Western Indian Ocean region. This region features vital ecosystems, including mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and coral reefs, which are crucial for fisheries, shoreline protection, and carbon sequestration (Nguyen et al., 2023; Friess et al., 2023) [15,4] . However, rapid urbanization has led to habitat destruction and ecosystem degradation, increasing vulnerability to climate impacts and releasing stored carbon (Wang et al., 2021; Osland et al., 2021) [19,16] . The research aims to assess the economic and ecological effects of these changes from 2023 to 2033 (Lu et al., 2022) [12] . The study forecasts land use and land cover changes in Kinondoni District's coastal areas from 2023 to 2033, using high-resolution satellite imagery and GIS software (USGS, 2023; EROS, 2023). It highlights significant deforestation, habitat degradation, and urban expansion due to population growth and agricultural shifts (NBS, 2022) [14] . Predictive modeling suggests severe biomass depletion and increased carbon emissions, particularly impacting mangrove forests crucial for carbon sequestration (URT, 2015; Lu et al., 2022) [17,12] . The expected findings will concentrate on ongoing urbanization and agricultural development leading to substantial coastal ecosystem loss, undermining their carbon storage and essential services (Wang et al., 2021; Friess et al., 2023) [19,4] . [6] . The study categorizes biomass into aboveground (AGB), below-ground (BGB), and dead wood (DW), each critical for carbon dynamics. AGB, sensitive to land use changes, is calculated using specific allometric equations 1-3 and summary in Table 2 (URT, 2015) [17] . Significant declines in AGB are anticipated, increasing carbon emissions (Friess et al., 2023) [4] . BGB, essential for carbon sequestration, and DW, a long-term carbon sink, underscore the need for sustainable land management to mitigate climate change impacts (Kauffman et al., 2020; IPCC, 2019) [10,8] .
| Vegetation type | Mangrove forest | Shrubland | Bare area | Water | Built up area | Cultivated land |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGB(t/ha) | 59.5 | 11 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 5.9 |
| BGB (t/ha) | 18.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| DWB(t/ha) | 5.09 | 0.77 | 0.22 | 1.31 | 0.22 | 0.96 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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AGB (tonnes/ha) = Tree stem volume (m 3 /ha) x wood density/1000
BGB (tonnes/ha) = AGB x 0.25 (as default), or root to shoot ratios ( 2)
Where; V= 0.5𝐿 (𝐴 1 +A 2 ) is the volume of the log, L is the length of the log, and 𝐴 1 & 𝐴 2 are the cross-sectional areas at the two ends of the log [7,8,4,10,12] .
CO₂ emissions (tonnes) = Carbon emissions (tonnes) × 3.67 (6) Total CO₂ emissions (tonnes) = AGCO₂ (tonnes) + BGCO₂ (tonnes) + DWCO₂ (tonnes) [20,2,12] .
Potential Economic Loss (US$) = Total CO 2 emission (tonnes) × Carbon market price (8) 4. This decline is primarily attributed to land use and land cover changes (LULC), particularly deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion, with mangrove forests experiencing the most severe impact, accounting for an extraordinary 103.4% of the total biomass loss (Friess et al., 2023) [4] . The destruction of mangroves is particularly concerning due to their essential roles as habitats and carbon sinks, which are vital for local biodiversity and global carbon dynamics (Osland et al., 2021) [16] .
Results and
Research indicates that mangrove deforestation leads to the rapid release of sequestered carbon, exacerbating climate change by increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels (Kauffman et al., 2020) [10] . The findings in Kinondoni reflect global trends observed in countries like Indonesia and Brazil, where similar patterns of mangrove loss have been documented (Bai et al., 2022) [1] . While urban areas in Kinondoni showed a slight biomass increase of 8.2%, this is negligible compared to the significant losses in mangrove habitats, highlighting the inadequacy of urban afforestation efforts (Chausson et al., 2023) [2] .
The study emphasizes the urgent need for conservation and restoration initiatives in Kinondoni's coastal regions, particularly for mangroves, which are crucial for ecological integrity and climate mitigation. Global studies support the importance of reforestation and mangrove restoration in enhancing carbon sequestration and protecting coastal communities from climate impacts (Chausson et al., 2023) [2] . Without immediate and sustained conservation measures, the ongoing biomass depletion will not only diminish the region's carbon sequestration capacity but also heighten ecological vulnerabilities and threaten biodiversity (URT, 2023). [4,2] . Mangroves, recognized for their high carbon sequestration potential, have faced significant degradation, which not only releases stored carbon but also diminishes future carbon capture capabilities, exacerbating global warming.
In contrast, the study noted a slight carbon gain of 8.1% in built-up areas, likely due to urban vegetation growth. However, this gain is insufficient to counterbalance the extensive emissions resulting from mangrove loss, as urban vegetation generally sequesters less carbon than mature forests (Nguyen et al., 2023) [15] . The research also identified marginal increases in carbon stock from other land use types, such as shrublands, but these gains are slow and cannot compensate for the rapid loss of mangrove ecosystems.
The findings underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies focused on protecting and restoring mangrove forests (Bai et al., 2022) [1] . The implications of these land use changes extend beyond local ecosystems, affecting regional and global carbon cycles. Therefore, integrating local land management practices with international climate change mitigation efforts is crucial.
The preservation and restoration of mangrove ecosystems should be prioritized in Kinondoni's conservation strategies due to their vital roles in carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and coastal protection
Carbon dioxide emissions from the study area for the period 2023-2033:
This study reveals alarming findings regarding CO₂ emissions, totaling 30,821.2 tonnes, primarily attributed to land use and cover transformation from 2023 to 2033 as indicated in Table 6. A significant contributor to these emissions is the degradation of mangrove forests, which accounted for an astonishing 103.4% of the total emissions. This underscores the critical role mangroves play as natural carbon sinks, capable of sequestering substantial amounts of carbon in their biomass and sediments. The degradation of these ecosystems not only intensifies local environmental challenges but also has far-reaching implications for global CO₂ levels, emphasizing the necessity of protecting mangroves as a vital strategy for climate change mitigation (Friess et al., 2023;
| LULC Type | AGB | BGB | DWB | Total | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mangrove forest | 22,894.0 | 7,002.9 | 1,958.5 | 31,855.4 | 103.4 |
| Shrub land | -24.5 | -9.8 | -1.7 | -36.0 | -0.1 |
| Bare area | 88.8 | 33.7 | 6.7 | 129.2 | 0.4 |
| Water | 806.0 | 297.9 | 229.5 | 1,333.4 | 4.3 |
| Built up area | -1,719.9 | -652.4 | -130.5 | -2,502.7 | -8.1 |
| Cultivated land | 27.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 41.9 | 0.1 |
| Total | 22,072.0 | 6,682.1 | 2,067.1 | 30,821.2 | 100.0 |
| Percentage | 71.6 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 100.0 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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Chausson et al., 2023) [4,2] . In contrast, other land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly in built-up areas, showed an 8.2% increase in carbon stock, likely due to urban green spaces or afforestation efforts. However, this increase is insufficient to counterbalance the extensive emissions resulting from mangrove loss, as urban vegetation typically has a lower carbon sequestration capacity compared to mature forests (Nguyen et al., 2023) [15] . The findings highlight the uneven nature of land cover changes in Kinondoni, revealing significant ecological degradation in certain areas while showing resilience in others. The marginal gains in carbon stock from urban areas cannot compensate for the substantial loss of carbon sequestration potential in mangrove. [4,2] .
Additionally, the study indicates that other land use and land cover (LULC) types contributed to a modest profit gain of 8.2%, highlighting their limited carbon sequestration potential compared to mangroves. While certain LULC types, such as shrublands and built-up areas, exhibited some carbon gains, these were insufficient to counterbalance the extensive losses from mangrove deforestation. This suggests a need for enhanced carbon sequestration efforts through afforestation or urban greening initiatives (Nguyen et al., 2023) [15] . The economic implications of these findings are significant, reflecting not only a lost financial opportunity but also broader environmental degradation that could impact the region's ecological stability. The high economic value of mangroves in carbon trading accentuates the urgency of their protection and. The findings highlight a strong correlation between socioeconomic drivers, such as population growth and urbanization, and environmental degradation. The demand for land and resources, intensified by pressures from Dar es Salaam, threatens the ecological health of Kinondoni's coastal areas. Without effective intervention, these trends are likely to continue, further endangering the region's ecosystems. The study emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable land management strategies that restore and protect these vital ecosystems. Implementing conservation initiatives that provide socio-economic benefits, such as carbon trading and ecosystem service payments, is essential for addressing these challenges and promoting sustainable development while mitigating climate change impacts in the region.
Recommendations
In light of the study's findings, eight main recommendations are offered to meet the issues provided by LULC changes in Kinondoni and to improve the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems:
Enhancing land use planning and policy implementation
To enhance the protection of coastal habitats, it is essential to improve land use planning and enforce existing environmental regulations. This includes implementing strict zoning laws to prevent the conversion of natural landscapes into urban or agricultural areas, with a focus on preserving mangrove forests and other vital ecosystems that play a significant role in climate change mitigation (Kinondoni Urban Development Strategy).
2.
2.
Advocating for sustainable urban development
Urbanization in Kinondoni should be managed to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. Sustainable urban development strategies must be adopted, emphasizing the creation of green spaces and promoting vertical development to minimize land consumption. Restoration of degraded urban areas through replanting and urban forest establishment is also crucial (Sustainable Urban Development Guidelines).
Preservation and rehabilitation of mangrove habitats
Given the importance of mangrove forests for carbon sequestration and coastal protection, targeted conservation and restoration efforts are necessary. This includes reforesting compromised areas, protecting existing mangrove populations, and fostering community-led conservation initiatives, supported by ongoing monitoring and research to assess effectiveness (Mangrove Restoration Framework).
4.
4.
Integrating ecosystem services assessment in decision-making
The economic value of ecosystem services from coastal ecosystems should be integrated into land use planning. By quantifying these benefits, policymakers can make informed decisions that reflect the true value of natural capital, potentially facilitating funding for conservation through mechanisms like carbon trading (Ecosystem Services Valuation).
Figures and tables from the paper
| LULC Type | Year & Area (ha) | — | LULC change (ha) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2033 | 2023-2033 | |
| Mangrove forest | 1100.37 | 877.3 | 223.07 |
| Shrub land | 193.06 | 194.35 | -1.29 |
| Bare area | 113.75 | 96 | 17.75 |
| Water | 2243.63 | 2142.05 | 101.58 |
| Built up area | 1905.14 | 2248.96 | -343.82 |
| Cultivated land | 5.88 | 3.17 | 2.71 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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| Vegetation type | Mangrove forest | Shrubland | Bare area | Water | Built up area | Cultivated land |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGC(t/ha) | 28.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| BGC(t/ha) | 8.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| DWC(t/ha) | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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| LULC Type | AGB | BGB | DWB | Total | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mangrove forest | 13,272.7 | 4,059.9 | 1,135.4 | 18,468.0 | 103.4 |
| Shrub land | -14.2 | -5.7 | -1.0 | -20.9 | -0.1 |
| Bare area | 51.5 | 19.5 | 3.9 | 74.9 | 0.4 |
| Water | 467.3 | 172.7 | 133.1 | 773.0 | 4.3 |
| Built up area | -997.1 | -378.2 | -75.6 | -1,450.9 | -8.1 |
| Cultivated land | 16.0 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 24.3 | 0.1 |
| Total | 12,796.1 | 3,873.9 | 1,198.4 | 17,868.4 | 100.0 |
| Percentage | 71.6 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 100.0 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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| LULC Type | AGB | BGB | DWB | Total | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mangrove forest | 6,238.2 | 1,908.1 | 533.7 | 8,679.9 | 103.4 |
| Shrub land | -6.7 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -9.8 | -0.1 |
| Bare area | 24.2 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 35.2 | 0.4 |
| Water | 219.6 | 81.2 | 62.5 | 363.3 | 4.3 |
| Built up area | -468.6 | -177.8 | -35.6 | -681.9 | -8.1 |
| Cultivated land | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 11.4 | 0.1 |
| Total | 6,014.2 | 1,820.7 | 563.2 | 8,398.1 | 100.0 |
| Percentage | 71.6 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 100.0 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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| LULC Type | AGB | BGB | DWB | Total | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mangrove forest | 91,576.1 | 28,011.5 | 7,834.0 | 127,421.6 | 103.4 |
| Shrub land | -97.9 | -39.2 | -6.9 | -143.9 | -0.1 |
| Bare area | 355.2 | 134.7 | 26.9 | 516.8 | 0.4 |
| Water | 3,224.0 | 1,191.5 | 918.1 | 5,333.6 | 4.3 |
| Built up area | -6,879.4 | -2,609.4 | -521.9 | -10,010.8 | -8.1 |
| Cultivated land | 110.3 | 39.3 | 17.9 | 167.5 | 0.1 |
| Total | 88,288.2 | 26,728.3 | 8,268.3 | 123,284.8 | 100.0 |
| Percentage | 71.6 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 100.0 |
Table text extracted from the original PDF; superscript letters are shown inline. The original table image is below.
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