Maximizing harvests, minimizing risks: unveiling the economic impact of weather-based agromet advisories

Introduction

Climate change significantly contributes to the reduction of crop yields and nutritional value due to weather-related factors such as droughts, floods, heat waves, pests, and diseases. (Bal and Minhas 2017) [1]. Weather can affect crops disparately based on their developmental stage and the distribution of weather patterns throughout the crop season (Rathore et al., 2001) [7] . Weather forecasts are imperative for planning, especially in agriculture, which is vulnerable to uncertainties. Weather and climate data are essential for effective agricultural management and production. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) initiated the Farmers Weather Bulletin in 1945 to cater to the needs of the farming community (Chattopadhyay and Chandras 2018) [2] . With technological advancements, weather forecasting has significantly improved, leading to the development of a customized agromet advisory weather information system. In 2008, IMD, in collaboration with ICAR and State Agriculture Universities, introduced a district-level agrometeorological advisory service (AAS) called Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS). This system focuses on gathering and organizing weather, soil, and crop information, which is then integrated with weather forecasts to assist farmers in making informed management decisions. Currently, the GKMS scheme operates through 130 Agro-Meteorological Field Units (AMFUs) in each Agro-climatic Zone, with each unit preparing District-level Agromet Advisory Bulletins (AAB) for all districts under their jurisdiction (Manjappa and Yeledalli 2013) [4] . AMFU Sabour plays a crucial role in preparing and disseminating Agromet advisory bulletins to farmers across 17 districts in South Bihar, including Bhagalpur, Patna, Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehanabad, Nawada, Arwal, Bhojpur, Rohtas, Kaimur, Buxar, Nalanda, Sheikhpura, Munger, Lakhisarai, Jamui, and Banka.

These advisories are based on value-added weather forecasts received twice a week and are designed to assist farmers in optimizing their crop yield and reducing losses caused by adverse weather conditions. The advisories generated by AMFU Sabour are distributed through various mass media channels, including social media, radio, television, newspapers, and other platforms. These advisories provide a weather forecast and recommend appropriate farm operations, enabling farmers to efficiently utilize resources, save time, and minimize financial losses during unfavorable weather conditions. Economic assessment of the AMFU Sabour agromet advisories can provide valuable insights into their impact on farmers' income and overall agricultural productivity in the district. Several factors can be considered for this assessment:

Increase in Crop Yield

Agromet advisories offer guidance on optimal planting times, irrigation practices, and fertilizer usage based on weather conditions (Hasen et al., 2002) [3] . By following these recommendations, farmers can potentially increase their crop yield, leading to higher income(Singh et al., 2020) [10] .

Reduction in Crop Losses

The advisories provide early warnings and advice on weather events like heavy rain, frost, and hailstorms, helping farmers take preventive measures to protect their crops. This can result in reduced crop losses and improved income for farmers.

Cost Savings

Farmers can save on input costs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and water by following the recommendations provided in the advisories. This can lead to reduced waste and increased costeffectiveness in farming practices (Prasad et al., 2020) [5] .

Enhanced Resilience

Timely and accurate information provided in the advisories can help farmers better manage weather-related risks, thus improving their resilience to adverse weather events and ultimately safeguarding their income (Ramachandrappa et al., 2013) [6] .

Access to Markets

Improved agricultural productivity resulting from the advisories can potentially open up new markets for farmers and improve their bargaining power (Ramachandrappa et al., 2018) [8] . This can lead to higher prices for their produce, further enhancing their income and livelihoods. Therefore a study is designed to assess the economic impact of agromet advisory services issued by the AMFU, Sabour for the paddy and maize crop during the year 2019 t 2022.

Materials and Methods

The Agro-meteorological Field Unit (AMFU) at Bihar Agricultural University, Sabour, operates as a crucial hub for weather-related agricultural information dissemination. AMFU receives value-added weather forecasts from the Regional Meteorological Center in Patna twice a week, detailing essential meteorological parameters for the subsequent five days. A multidisciplinary agromet advisory board, comprising experts from agronomy, plant pathology, soil science, Agrometeorology, horticulture, forestry, and animal husbandry, meticulously analyze these forecasts. Based on their insights, weather-based agro advisory bulletins are crafted to provide actionable guidance to farmers (Hansen et al, 2002). These bulletins, disseminated through diverse mass media channels including social media platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook, radio, television, newspapers, and agriculture-oriented magazines, not only furnish weather predictions but also offer tailored recommendations for farm operations. This enables farmers to proactively address potential risks associated with adverse weather conditions or capitalize on favorable weather patterns, thereby optimizing resource utilization and enhancing agricultural productivity. A comprehensive study conducted across 16 blocks involving 440 rice and 440 maize farmers, with both users and non-users of agromet advisory services randomly selected, aimed to assess the economic benefits of such services. Regular feedback collection from farmers further ensures the usability and accuracy of agromet advisories, reflecting a commitment to continuous improvement and farmer-centric service delivery.

Results and Discussion

The information was gathered through personal interviews conducted at home and on the farmers' field for the paddy and wheat crop. To make the findings meaningful, the collected data was classified, tabulated, and analyzed. In case of paddy farmers who followed the agromet advisories were able to reduce input costs by up to 7.12%, 7.81%, 4.34% and 7.64% in the kharif season of 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. Increases net profit by 11.84%, 14.70%, 20.53% and 23.08% in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 (Table 1) when compared to non-AAS farmers who did not follow weather-based agro advisory information. AAS farmers were able to reduce input costs by up to Rs. 3073/ha, 3628/ha, 3773/ha and 3874/ha in the year 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. When compared to non-AAS farmers, net profit increased by Rs. 6062/ha, 8083/ha, 11867/ha and 13865/ha in the year 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. AAS farmers received a higher net return due to lower input costs, the use of agromet advisories, and the timely management of inspect, pest, and diseases. AAS farmers followed the practices listed in the agromet advisory bulletins and managed their crops accordingly, such as timely land preparation, sowing, using recommended seed rates and varieties, weeding, harvesting, irrigation, and pesticide applications. The economic assessment of weather-based agromet advisories issued by AMFU-Sabour extends beyond paddy to include rabi maize, revealing further insights into the benefits reaped by farmers. Through comprehensive data collection and analysis, the impact of these advisories on input costs and net profits becomes evident. For rabi maize, farmers who diligently followed the agromet advisories witnessed substantial reductions in input costs across the seasons from 2019 to 2022. The superior net return observed among AAS farmers can be attributed to their meticulous adherence to the practices outlined in the agromet advisories (Prasad et al., 2020) [5] . These practices encompassed timely land preparation, sowing, utilization of recommended seed rates and varieties, weeding, harvesting, irrigation, and pesticide applications. By aligning their actions with the guidance provided in the advisories, AAS farmers effectively managed their crops, mitigating risks associated with pests, diseases, and adverse weather conditions. Overall, the data underscores the tangible economic benefits of AMFU-Sabour's weather-based agromet advisories for rabi maize farmers. These advisories not only contribute to cost savings and increased profits but also empower farmers to make informed decisions, fostering resilience and sustainability in agricultural practices.

As climate change continues to pose challenges, the adoption of such innovative solutions emerges as a crucial strategy for ensuring the prosperity of farming communities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the economic assessment of weather-based agromet advisories issued by AMFU-Sabour paints a compelling picture of their transformative impact on farmer livelihoods in both paddy and rabi maize cultivation. The data showcases significant reductions in input costs and substantial increases in net profits for farmers who embraced these advisories. From 2019 to 2022, paddy farmers witnessed consistent savings in input costs and notable boosts in net profits compared to non-AAS farmers. Similarly, rabi maize farmers experienced impressive financial gains across all years, illustrating the effectiveness of the advisories in enhancing agricultural productivity and profitability. These findings underscore the importance of timely and informed decision-making facilitated by weather-based guidance, particularly in the face of climate change-induced challenges. By aligning their practices with the recommendations provided in the advisories, farmers are empowered to mitigate risks, optimize resource allocation, and enhance overall resilience. Ultimately, AMFU-Sabour's agromet advisories emerge as invaluable tools for driving sustainable agricultural practices and securing the prosperity of farming communities amidst evolving environmental conditions.

Acknowledgement

AcknowledgementThis research has been conducted under the GKMS Project funded by the India Meteorological Department. We extend our sincere gratitude to the IMD for their financial support. The authors express their heartfelt thanks to the Director of Research, Bihar Agriculture University, Sabour, Bhagalpur, for providing the research platform necessary for carrying out this work. We also acknowledge the valuable assistance provided by Dr. Birendra Kumar for this endeavor.

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