Research article · 2019 · Full text
International Journal of Statistics and Applied MathematicsComparative study of literacy rate in Telangana state and India using holt’s double exponential smoothing approach
Volume 4(3) · Pages 63–68
Research areasGrey System Theory ApplicationsForecasting Techniques and ApplicationsEnergy Load and Power Forecasting
Abstract
Author-writtenLiteracy is the key for socio-economic progress. Although literacy rates are improved after the independence, the level of literacy is still below the world average literacy rate of 84% and of all nations. India currently has the largest illiterate population. Despite governments’ motivation, India’s literacy rate increased only sluggishly and recent research literature suggests that it would take until 2060 for India to achieve universal literacy at then-current rate of progress. The current survey of 66th round of NSS estimates indicate that in 2009-10, less than two-thirds (66.8%) of the population of all ages were literate. The overall disparity in literacy across the population is heightened by the presence of rural- urban and male-female disparity. This paper analytically discusses the literacy rates and educational level of different social groups based upon various rounds of NSSO estimates. This paper has been divided into three levels. In the first level literacy rate among Telangana states of Top districts including Rural and Urban areas is discussed. In the second level growth rate of literacy from India was presented. In the third level comparative study of literacy rate from Telangana state and India is presented. In the final stage statistical analysis and forecasting of Literacy rate using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing method is used.
Summary
Source-checkedPlain-language reading of the full paper, prepared with AI and checked against the text. Each point links to the authors' own words.
Why it matters
- Despite improvements since independence, India has the world's largest illiterate population and its literacy rates remain below the global average of 84%. View evidence ↗
- Literacy levels in India are characterized by significant disparities between rural and urban areas, as well as between males and females. View evidence ↗
The question
- The study aims to analyze literacy rates across different social groups and forecast future literacy rates using Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing. View evidence ↗
What they did
- The researchers used secondary data sourced from the Census of India (2001, 2011), NSSO, the UN Human Development report, and other statistical databases. View evidence ↗
- The comparative analysis between Telangana state and India was conducted using a dataset spanning 40 years. View evidence ↗
- Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing was selected for forecasting because it is suitable for time series data that exhibits a trend but no seasonality. View evidence ↗
What they found
- Among rural areas in Telangana, Rangareddy district had the highest literacy rate at 60.6%, exceeding the overall rural literacy rate of 57.30% by 5.76%. View evidence ↗
- Telangana's state literacy rate grew from 21.19% in 1961 to 66.46% in 2011. View evidence ↗
- Compared to other southern states, Telangana's literacy rate of 66.5% was lower than Kerala (90.86%), Pondicherry (82.01%), Tamil Nadu (80.09%), Karnataka (75.36%), and Andhra Pradesh (67.41%). View evidence ↗
- The forecasted literacy rate for Telangana in 2021 was 76.09%, representing a 1.44% growth from 2011. View evidence ↗
- The forecasted literacy rate for India in 2021 was 83.18%, representing a 1.25% growth from 2011. View evidence ↗
- The forecasted growth rate of literacy in Telangana is higher than that of India overall. View evidence ↗
What it means
- The authors recommend that the Telangana state government implement more educational schemes specifically targeting rural areas to bridge the gap with urban literacy rates. View evidence ↗
Visual summary
2 visualsIllustrations explain the paper; charts are replotted from the paper's own table values.
Forecasted Literacy Growth Comparison
AI-generated conceptual illustration (Open books and academic graduation caps). It explains the idea and does not show study data.
View source evidence ↗
Literacy rate: Kerala vs Karnataka vs Telangana vs Andhrapradesh vs Temilnadu
Replotted from Table 3 (page 3) of the original paper. Every bar is the paper's own table value.
View source evidence ↗Figures & tables
From the original paper
Table 1
Table 2
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5Introduction
Literacy is the important tool to explore the human abilities which effectively and efficiently contributes economic growth the country. Literacy is a systematic process from which a child or adult acquire the knowledge, skills, experience, systematic exposure and good attitude. Educational opportunities possible by literacy, it is the heart of basic education for all the civilization, and essential for poverty, reducing child mortality, reducing population growth, improve the gender equality and sustainable development. Literacy and level education affect the human behavior and it improves the attitude of the person and vision of the carrier.
Literacy is an indicator of level of development achieved by the society. Spreading of literacy is the associated with development of modern civilization such as modernization and urbanization of the nation. Socio economic and Socio-political achievement of the nation depends on the literacy and educational level of residents of the nation. Data base and Methodology This paper studies the comparative study of Telangana state and India from Rural and Urban area and the data was collected as secondary data from the following sources have been used to collect data:- 1.
Directorate of Economics and statistics of Telangana state. 2. Census report 2001, 2011 of government of India. 3. United Nation Human Development report. 4. India stats.com. 5.
Knoema.com 6. NSSO. Maths 2019; 4(3): 63-68 B Vittal Asst. Professor, C.V.R College of Engineering, Telangana, India M Krishna Reddy Osmania University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India Correspondence B Vittal Asst.
Professor, C.V.R College of Engineering, Telangana, India A person, who can only read but cannot write, is not literate In the Censuses prior to 1991; children below 5 years of age were treated as illiterates. It was decided at 1991 Census that all children in the age group 0-6, would be treated as illiterate The population aged seven years and above only would be classified as literate or illiterate. The same criterion has been retained in the Censuses of 2001 and 2011. For studying population literacy of Telangana and India the data has been collected from the census 2001 and 2011.
In this paper comparative study of Telangana and India has been done using 40 years literacy data. For analysis and forecasting the literacy Holt’s exponential smoothing methodology is used. Definition of Literacy A person who can able to write and read with understanding in any of the language is considered as a literate Table 1: Literacy rate of top districts from Telangana State Census-2011 Districts Literacy Rank Districts Rural Rank Districts Urban Rank Hyderabad 83.25 1 Rangareddy 60.6 1 Hyderabad 83.25 1 Rangareddy 75.87 2 Khammam 60.52 2 Rangareddy 82.31 2 Khammam 65.75 3 Nalgonda 60.07 3 Nalgonda 81.69 3 Warangal 65.11 4 Karimnagar 59.61 4 Khammam 81.26 4 Nalgonda 64.2 5 Warangal 58.83 5 Warangal 81.03 5 Top Districts literacy Rate 83.25%from Hyderabad district which is 02.66% more compare with urban literacy of 81.09%. Table 2: Literacy rate of Telangana State from 1961-2011 From the literacy census-2011, highest literacy is recorded as 83.25% from the Hyderabad which is 25.11% more compare with total literacy of 66.54.
| Years | 1951 | 1961 | 1971 | 1981 | 1991 | 2001 | 2011 | % increase in 2011 over 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Literacy | 18.32 | 28.31 | 34.45 | 43.57 | 52.21 | 64.83 | 74.04 | 14% |
| Rural | 12.1 | 22.5 | 27.9 | 36 | 36 | 59.4 | 67.8 | 14% |
| Urban | 34.59 | 54.4 | 60.2 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 80.3 | 84.1 | 5% |
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| Districts | Literacy | Rank | Districts | Rural | Rank | Districts | Urban | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyderabad | 83.25 | 1 | Rangareddy | 60.6 | 1 | Hyderabad | 83.25 | 1 |
| Rangareddy | 75.87 | 2 | Khammam | 60.52 | 2 | Rangareddy | 82.31 | 2 |
| Khammam | 65.75 | 3 | Nalgonda | 60.07 | 3 | Nalgonda | 81.69 | 3 |
| Warangal | 65.11 | 4 | Karimnagar | 59.61 | 4 | Khammam | 81.26 | 4 |
| Nalgonda | 64.2 | 5 | Warangal | 58.83 | 5 | Warangal | 81.03 | 5 |
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From the rural literacy, the highest literacy is recorded is 60.6%from Rangareddy district which is 05.76% more compare with rural literacy of 57.30%. From the Urban literacy, the highest literacy is recorded is Years 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Literacy 21.19 24.57 35.66 40.5 58.5 66.46 Graph 1: Graphical representation of Progressive literacy rate of Telanga State substantial increase over a period of 50 years. This increasing trend is observed in all the Districts in the State. After formation of the State in 1956, the first census was conducted in 1961 where in the literacy rate was recorded as 21.19 for the State.
It grew to 66.46 in 2011 showing a Table 2: Literacy Rates in Post Independent India Years 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 % increase in 2011 over 2001 Literacy 18.32 28.31 34.45 43.57 52.21 64.83 74.04 14% Rural 12.1 22.5 27.9 36 36 59.4 67.8 14% Urban 34.59 54.4 60.2 67.2 67.2 80.3 84.1 5% Graph 2: Graphical representation of Progressive literacy rate from 1951-2011 Table 3: Comparison of southern state literacy rate From the graph, Literacy trend is observed it as progressive from the year 1951 to 2011. The growth rate from the year- 2001 to 2011 is observed as 1.42%. Similarly From the rural literacy, growth rate from the year 2001 to 2011 is 1.41% and Urban literacy growth is 0.47%. There is need to improve the rural literacy rate compare with total and Urban literacy as to maintain progressive literacy in rural areas.
| State | Literacy rate |
|---|---|
| Kerala | 90.86 |
| Karnataka | 75.36 |
| Telangana | 66.5 |
| Andhrapradesh | 67.41 |
| Temilnadu | 80.09 |
| Pondicherry | 82.01 |
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State Literacy rate Kerala 90.86 Karnataka 75.36 Telangana 66.5 Andhrapradesh 67.41 Temilnadu 80.09 Pondicherry 82.01 South India Literacy rate students who live in the country to those who qualify for the particular grade level. The United Nations Educational, defines ‘Gross Enrolment Ratio' as the total enrolment within a country "in a specific level of education, regardless of age, represented as a percentage of the population in the age group corresponding to this level of education. The Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD) informed that the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) for Higher Education in India increased to 24.5 percent during 2015-16. This is a positive step toward increasing the rate of literacy in the country.
From the graph, Literacy rate of Telangana state (66.50%) is expected to lower than the other states literacy, it indicates that it is necessary to improve in literacy by introducing new schemes in education sector of the Telangana state. Gross Enrolment Ratio Gross enrollment index is the statistical tool which helps in the education field and by the UN in its Education Index to determine the number of students enrolled in the school at different grade levels (like Primary, Middle and Higher secondary) and used to show the ratio of the number of Graph 3: Gross Enrolment Ratio in Different Stages of Education as Percentage of Population in the Appropriate Age groups secondary level number of students joining in the educational institution is continuously increasing; it is a good sign to increase the literacy rate of India. Index: Primary Classes I-V (6-10 years); Middle Classes VI- VIII (11-13 Years); Higher Secondary Classes IX-XII (14-18 Years): Gross enrolment ratio indicates from the graph that in higher Table 4: Comparison of Telangana state and India literacy rate Years 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Telangana 21.19 24.57 35.66 40.5 58.5 66.46 India 28.31 34.45 43.57 52.21 64.83 74.04 Graph 4: Graphical representation of Progressive literacy in India Forecasting Literacy rate of Telangana State
| Years | 1961 | 1971 | 1981 | 1991 | 2001 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telangana | 21.19 | 24.57 | 35.66 | 40.5 | 58.5 | 66.46 |
| India | 28.31 | 34.45 | 43.57 | 52.21 | 64.83 | 74.04 |
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Methodology
For forecasting the time series data of literacy rate of Telangana state, the best Methodology is Holt’s. Double Exponential Smoothing Method Holt’s method is the revised smoothing method than Simple exponential smoothing method, which is applicable to the time series data with trend and no Seasonality. Mainly this method is a linear combination of previous value of a series for generating and modeling the future values. Application of Holt’s method required three equations, Forecast = Estimated level + Trend at most recent time point Ft+k = Lt + Tt*K Where, Ft+k represents forecast for m-steps ahead period.
K represents no. Of period forecast. Estimated level = Lt = α*Yt + (1- α) (Lt-1 + Tt-1) Estimated trend = Tt = β (Lt - Lt-1) + (1- β) *Tt-1 Table 5: Telangana literacy forecasting is as follows Year Literacy Lt Tt Forecast e e^2 1961 21.19 21.19 4.11 1971 24.57 24.935 3.891 25.3 -0.73 0.5329 1981 35.66 32.243 5.9412 28.826 6.834 46.70356 1991 40.5 39.3421 6.63594 38.1842 2.3158 5.36293 2001 58.5 52.23902 10.39253 45.97804 12.52196 156.7995 2011 66.46 64.54577 11.54106 62.63155 3.828452 14.65704 2021 76.087 224.0559 2031 87.6279 Alpha 0.5 Beta 0.6 SSE 44.81118 Literacy forecast From the graph, forecasting the literacy in the year 2021 is 76.09%, there is 1.44% growth in literacy is observed it from the year 2011. Forecasting Literacy rate of India Year India Lt Tt F e e^2 1951 18.32 18.32 9.555 1961 28.31 28.0925 9.6855 27.875 0.435 0.189225 1971 34.45 36.114 8.6871 37.778 -3.328 11.07558 1981 43.57 44.18555 8.31777 44.8011 -1.2311 1.515607 1991 52.21 52.35666 8.229774 52.50332 -0.29332 0.086037 2001 64.83 62.70822 9.502844 60.58643 4.243566 18.00785 2011 74.04 73.12553 10.05153 72.21106 1.828939 3.345019 2021 83.17706 34.21932 2031 93.22858 Alpha 0.5 Beta 0.6 Error 5.703221 Literacy forecast From the graph, forecasting the literacy in the year 2021 is 83.18%, there is 1.25% growth in literacy is observed it from the year 2011.
| Year | Literacy | Lt | Tt | Forecast | e | e^2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 21.19 | 21.19 | 4.11 | |||
| 1971 | 24.57 | 24.935 | 3.891 | 25.3 | -0.73 | 0.5329 |
| 1981 | 35.66 | 32.243 | 5.9412 | 28.826 | 6.834 | 46.70356 |
| 1991 | 40.5 | 39.3421 | 6.63594 | 38.1842 | 2.3158 | 5.36293 |
| 2001 | 58.5 | 52.23902 | 10.39253 | 45.97804 | 12.52196 | 156.7995 |
| 2011 | 66.46 | 64.54577 | 11.54106 | 62.63155 | 3.828452 | 14.65704 |
| 2021 | 76.087 | 224.0559 | ||||
| 2031 | 87.6279 |
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By comparing the growth in forecasted literacy form the Telangana state and India, Growth rate in Telangana is higher than India. It is a good sign of improving the Telangana literacy in future.
Conclusion
An analysis of this paper concludes that the overall literacy rate of Telangana State is increased from the census-2001 to census-2011and the same trend is followed in India literacy rate. The growth rate of literacy in Telangana state is slight higher than India literacy as forecasted literacy is concerned. Telangana state government need to initiate more schemes which are related literacy in rural area to increase the literacy rate as compared with urban literacy. This paper predictive analysis is useful for the understanding the literacy from rural and urban area, the forecasting the literacy from Telangana and India is may helpful to the introducing new educational schemes for increasing in the literacy rate.
In further study new statistical tool may helpful to the analyzing and forecasting the future literacy in effectively.
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