Assessment of CERES-Rice model for rice production and climatic variability on rice model in temperate Kashmir

Abstract

CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for rice cultivars (K-39,Jhelum,Shalimar-ice1, Chenab,CH-1039,CH-1007,Kohsaar,K-332 ) and sowing dates (25th May,10th June and 25th June)the data was collected from the field experiment conducted at Shere- Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences in the year 2010 and 2011.Prediction capabilities of the model were tested by judging the performance of crop in terms of phenology, leaf area index, grain yield and biological yield. Days to anthesis ranged between 53 to 109 days and 54 to 120 days for observed and predicted values respectively. The observed and the predicted days to maturity ranged between 82 to 165 days and 83 to 167 days respectively. Grain yield ranged between 34.15 to 99.28 and 34.0 to 104.6 q/ha for simulated and observed data respectively. The observed and predicted LAI and biological yield did not match. Sensitivity analysis was done in which the maximum and minimum temperature was increased by 30c resulted in decrease in the yield by 1.7% and decreases days to maturity by 33 days. The effects of elevated CO2 (350ppm) of the base value 330ppm showed increase of grain yield by 8.1% with no effect on crop maturity.