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Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030

Journal of Hepatology · 2018 · Vol. 69(4) · pp. 896–904

Chris Estes✉(Center for Disease Analysis)Quentin M. Anstee(Newcastle University)M. Arias(Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas)Heike Bantel(Medizinische Hochschule Hannover)Stefano BellentaniJoan Caballería(Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas)Massimo Colombo(Humanitas University)Antonio Craxı̀(University of Palermo)Javier Crespo(Instituto de Investigación Marqués de Valdecilla)Christopher P. Day(Newcastle University)Yuichiro Eguchi(Saga University)Andreas Geier(University of Würzburg)Loreta A. Kondili(Istituto Superiore di Sanità)Daniela C. Kroy(Universitätsklinikum Aachen)Jeffrey V. Lazarus(Barcelona Institute for Global Health)Rohit Loomba(University of California, San Diego)Michael P. Manns(Medizinische Hochschule Hannover)Giulio Marchesini(University of Bologna)Atsushi Nakajima(Yokohama City University)Francesco NegroSalvatore Petta(University of Palermo)Vlad Ratziu(Inserm)Manuel Romero‐Gómez(Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas)Arun J. Sanyal(Virginia Commonwealth University Medical Center)Jörn M. Schattenberg(Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)Frank Tacke(RWTH Aachen University)Junko Tanaka(Hiroshima University)Christian Trautwein(Universitätsklinikum Aachen)Lai Wei(Peking University People's Hospital)Stefan Zeuzem(Goethe University Frankfurt)Homie Razavi(Center for Disease Analysis)

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Abstract

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Diet, Metabolism, and Disease Alcohol Consumption and Health EffectsMedicineFatty liverSteatohepatitisDiseaseObesityEnvironmental healthDisease burdenPopulationMetabolic syndromeCirrhosis

MeSH terms

ChinaDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2HumansLiver DiseasesMarkov ChainsModels, TheoreticalObesityTime FactorsPrevalenceCost of IllnessNon-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

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1,972

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92.54

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Cited by

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