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Statistical Evaluation of Prognostic versus Diagnostic Models: Beyond the ROC Curve

Clinical Chemistry · 2007 · Vol. 54(1) · pp. 17–23
Nancy R. Cook

Abstract

Although it is useful for classification, evaluation of prognostic models should not rely solely on the ROC curve, but should assess both discrimination and calibration. Risk reclassification can aid in comparing the clinical impact of two models on risk for the individual, as well as the population.

Medical Coding and Health InformationDiabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsLipoproteins and Cardiovascular HealthReceiver operating characteristicStatisticCalibrationStatisticsPredictive modellingFramingham Risk ScoreArea under the curveRisk assessmentMedicineDisease

MeSH terms

Decision Support TechniquesDiagnosisProbabilityPrognosisRiskROC CurveStochastic ProcessesModels, StatisticalClinical Medicine
Citations
698
FWCI
58.82
field-weighted impact
References
25
Percentile
100%
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