Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

Abstract

These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies-besides direct intervention in disease cases-should also be further investigated.